Wimbledon 2014: Roger Federer's best chance at winning 1 more major

At this point in Roger Federer’s career, it was always going to take some serendipity.

It’s been two years since Federer won a major but it feels like much longer. We’ve seen the 17-time grand slam champion come up short several times since winning Wimbledon for the seventh time in 2012, most notably his second-round loss in London last year as defending champion.

Federer’s 2013 season was plagued by health issues, and it showed. Vintage Fed didn’t lose to the likes of Sergiy Stakhovsky and Tommy Robredo at majors, but that’s what happened last year, to the dismay of his legions of fans. Eulogies were written as the tennis world awaited Federer’s inevitable farewell press conference.

If he couldn’t beat ATP proletariats, how could Federer compete with Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray?

The truth is he can’t. At 32, Roger can’t beat the tour’s elite in five setters on a regular basis anymore, but he’s still here, two matches away from capturing his 18th major at his favorite tournament, the one that matters to him most - Wimbledon.

“As long as Federer has the desire and maintains his health, he’s capable of making at least one more Grand Slam charge,” wrote USA Today’s Chris Chase after Federer’s straight set loss to Robredo at the U.S. Open last year. “It’s almost inevitable.”

Chase was right, but it wasn’t just health and desire that conspired to help Federer make this run at a major title.

His draw at the All England Club was not easy by any means, but the players Federer encountered couldn’t trouble the Swiss on grass. Paolo Lorenzi, Gilles Muller and Santiago Giraldo served as hitting partners for Federer in the first three rounds, decent players sure, but nowhere near threatening enough to challenge Federer on grass.

Contrast that with Nadal’s opening round opponents, big hitting, go-for-broke giants with little regard for the well-being of tennis balls or reverence for the so-called old guard. Nadal navigated his way through three dicey, four-set encounters with Martin Klizan, Lukas Rosol and Mikhail Kukushkin before falling to Australian phenom Nick Kyrgios, a 19-year-old with a massive serve and punishing groundstrokes to match.

Nadal was in Federer’s half of the draw, and though a potential meeting between the two on grass would have seen Federer tapped as the favorite, we know their history - Nadal leads their head-to-head battles 23-10.

Defending Wimbledon champion Andy Murray is also gone after falling to Grigor Dimitrov, the Bulgarian youngster prematurely dubbed ‘Baby Fed,' who only now is making good on that nickname, breaking into the top 10 after beating Murray. 

Only one of the big four remains - Novak Djokovic - and even he was taken to five sets by perennial also-ran Marin Cilic. Meanwhile, Federer withstood an early barrage from countryman Stanislas Wawrinka before emerging victorious in four sets.

Djokovic will play Dimitrov in one semifinal while Federer meets Milos Raonic in the other.

Raonic is playing excellent tennis. He’s no longer a player with a big serve and little else. The 23-year-old’s groundstrokes have improved immensely under coach Ivan Ljubičić, with variety becoming a much-needed new aspect of the Canadian’s game. Mentally he appears stronger, failing to produce the periodic outbursts that were once a hallmark of Raonic’s game.

The crowd will be in Federer’s corner and this is Raonic’s first Grand Slam semifinal. Nerves will be a factor. This is a match Roger should win.

This is a tournament Federer must win, his biggest chance to add to his record major haul with an unmatched eighth Wimbledon title. A beneficial draw aided him from the outset and his biggest rivals, aside from Djokovic, have departed. The bad back that’s plagued him for two years doesn’t appear to be an issue.

The fear is he won’t get this close again. Time doesn’t wait for anyone, not even Roger Federer.

“It's good to be back in the semis, the prospect of going a step or two further is very exciting.”

Number 18 beckons, possibly, for the last time.