Scouting Report: Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State
He's old. He's a senior. He's big but not strong. He has been inconsistent. Those are the knocks against Michigan St. power forward Adreian Payne, but they ignore one relative certainty: Payne is going to be a very solid NBA player. At 23, the concerns about upside may have some merit, but it also means that a drafting team is getting Payne at his relative basketball peak (in general, players peak around age 27), making him an attractive draw for a contending team outside of the first round.
Related: 1 on 1 with NBA prospect Adreian Payne
Background
| Position | DX Rank | ESPN Rank | Height w/o Shoes | Weight (lbs.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF | 21 | 16 | 6' 9" | 239 |
| Wing | Vert (in.) | Standing Reach | Hand Length (in.) | Agility (sec.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' 4" | n/a | 9' 1" | 9.25 | n/a |
| NCAA Stats | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | 3FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | 16.4 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 50.3% | 42.3% |
| 2012-13 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 54.6% | 38.1% |
| 2011-12 | 7 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 56.6% | n/a |
| 2010-11 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 47.2% | n/a |
Scouting Report
Strengths: Payne is the rare big man prospect ready to help space the floor from Day 1; his 3-point shooting at the college level should extend to NBA range, and the shot itself is pure. While much of the focus is on a trio of power forwards earlier in the first round, Payne is longer than all of them - a true frontcourt player in size - and he uses his athleticism well at both ends of the floor. He's thought to be a high-character player, too, one who should fit seamlessly into most team cultures.
Weaknesses: Payne will likely slide due to a bias against seniors and their perceived upside, and it's true that Payne probably doesn't project as an All-Star like some of his draft mates. It's possible he's a late bloomer - he didn't contribute in a meaningful way until his junior season - but rebuilding teams may balk at a ceiling. On the floor, however, there's very little to criticize, and any inconsistency concerns can probably be attributed to his lengthy bout with mono.
Highlight Reel
What to Expect on Draft Day
If a team is looking for someone who can contribute on a rookie deal immediately, provide sold value at both ends and help space the floor, in particular, Payne is the guy. There's not a lot of risk here, but that only appeals to certain types of teams. As such, ESPN's Chad Ford pegs Payne with one of the widest draft ranges, with the Lakers at No. 7 representing the high end and some thinking he'll slide out of the top-20.