Is Kyrie Irving really worth max money?
After some questions about Kyrie Irving’s willingness to stay in Cleveland and whether he would agree to an extension with the Cavaliers, a reported maximum extension worth $90 million over five years (beginning with the 2015-16 season) is the first piece of real news in 2014 free agency, with Irving and the Cavs reaching an agreement just after midnight.
Regardless of how he may or may not really feel about Cleveland, Irving was probably never going to give up an opportunity for max money just to get to free agency earlier.
As it stands right now, Irving can make 25 percent of the team’s salary cap per year on his new deal, but if he’s voted into the starting lineup at the All-Star game again next season or wins an unlikely MVP award, he can make up to 30 percent of the cap as part of the ‘Derrick Rose Rule’ for players coming off of their rookie scale contracts. In other words, the extension could be worth even more than $90 million.
Less than a week after drafting Andrew Wiggins No. 1 overall, the Cavs have now locked up the Irving/Wiggins combination for nearly a half-decade, assuming Wiggins plays out his rookie scale contract in Cleveland. If the combination of Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson and Anthony Bennett amount to anything consistent, or can at least be packaged for something significant, you have to figure success is just around the corner in Cleveland.
On the surface, locking Irving up to a maximum extension seems like a no-brainer. The 22-year-old has averaged 20.7 points, 5.8 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.4 steals through his first three seasons, shooting just under 45 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from three-point territory on nearly five attempts per game.
He’s become the 11th member of a club that includes Michael Jordan, Bob Cousy, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Tiny Archibald, Larry Bird, Grant Hill, Allen Iverson, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, as the only players in NBA history to average at least 20 points, five assists and a 20-plus PER through their first three seasons.
He’s already a star and considered on the verge of superstardom by many.
But as always when dealing with tens of millions of dollars, you have to dig deeper than the surface. And when you do that with Irving, there are certainly concerns if you’ve just agreed to pay him nearly $90 million over the next five years.
The two primary concerns when discussing Irving are his health and his defense.
Kyrie is a sieve defensively who can seriously compromise a team’s defense by being a non-factor at the point of attack. You can easily observe this by watching any number of Cavs games, but the numbers also confirm it. A team that allowed 101.4 points per 100 possessions with Irving on the bench this past season – a mark that would have ranked seventh – allowed 106.8 per 100 with him on the court, a mark that would rank 25th. ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus metric estimates that Irving is worth -3.38 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end, behind guards like Mo Williams, Ramon Sessions and Trey Burke. Synergy Sports ranks him 280th in overall defense.
As for those health concerns, Irving has missed at least 11 games in each of his three NBA seasons and has missed 49 games total over those three years with a variety of hand, shoulder and knee ailments, just to name a few. And remember that this is a player who missed all but 11 games of his lone season at Duke thanks to an ugly toe injury.
In addition, Irving’s shooting numbers from both the field and behind the arc have dipped in each of the last two seasons, falling to 43 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively, in 2013-14 – good for an Effective Field Goal Percentage of just 48.0.
That regressing shooting combined with his aforementioned defense meant that for the first time in his three seasons, Irving was a net-negative on the court for Cleveland. The Cavs performed 4.4 points per 100 possessions better with their All-Star on the bench (-0.7) in 2013-14 than they did with him on the court (-5.1).
Those are all troubling signs, as were reports that Irving’s attitude began to sour this season. If the team can't turn things around as quickly as he wants, how long does he stay committed before mentally checking out or perhaps requesting a trade?
Talent-wise, the Cavaliers have locked up one of the best young players in the game to pair with one of the most hyped draft picks in years, and fans in Cleveland have legitimate reason for hope again. But between his injury history, his deserved reputation as a one-way player and reported concerns over his attitude, there are some serious questions surrounding whether Kyrie Irving is worth max money.
The Cavs future now depends on the answers.