Why trading Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love is all about good timing

We’ve already discussed at length why a potential - and now reported - trade between the Cavaliers and Timberwolves makes sense.

The Cavs get an in-his-prime superstar to immediately partner with LeBron James, while the T-Wolves replace a current superstar (who wanted out of town) with a potential superstar on a cost-controlled rookie scale contract and under team control for up to nine years. Cleveland would also be left with plenty of young, homegrown talent so as not to feel like they’re selling the farm. And again, Love himself is only 25.

It is a once-in-a-generation culmination of factors that produced a true blockbuster trade, and it is expected to pay off handsomely for both franchises. At the crux of those culminating factors is how the timing works for both teams.

Focusing on Cleveland’s perspective, it’s not all that difficult to figure out their reasoning.

Wiggins’ value is based on potential, and while he certainly has the physical tools to become a star, expecting him to produce at Kevin Love’s current, proven value any time in the near future is unrealistic.

Consider that Love posted the NBA’s third-best Win Shares mark of 14.3 in 2013-14 (according to Basketball Reference).

Only 15 active players have ever posted 14 Win Shares in a season, and only LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul and Amar’e Stoudemire posted a 14-plus Win Share year within their first three NBA seasons. James did it in his second season, while the other five players did it in their third seasons.

As for the other nine active players who have posted 14-plus Win Share seasons, here’s how deep into their careers they were when they achieved the feat for the first time:

Win Shares is just one advanced measure of player performance and is by no means intended to be an all-encompassing measurement, but it paints a good picture here in illustrating Cleveland’s thinking.

Wiggins has incredible upside and could very well become a perennial NBA All-Star and legitimate superstar, but getting to the level that the 25-year-old Love is playing at right now is extremely rare. Even if Wiggins does one day reach that level, it would likely occur three to five years down the road in a best case scenario, if not further.

If the Cavs have Love’s word that he’ll stick around long term, they should get that kind of proven production from him right away, which is expected to extend over the next five to six years - coinciding with the end of James’ prime. By the time Wiggins is ready to produce at that level (if he ever is), James will already be exiting his prime.

There are obvious risks involved for the Cavs in trading two No.1 overall picks and an additional first rounder, but the risk of Love skipping town after one year or suffering an injury is no greater than the risk of banking on a young player’s potential or the risk of wasting time in a delicate championship window.