Nuggets find a fair price for tough-to-value Kenneth Faried

Kenneth Faried is a hard basketball player to figure out.

A high-energy power forward, Faried is undersized for the position at 6-foot-8 but not at all in the mold of a stretch-four. He's a throwback in some ways, since he's an inside-out frontcourt player rather than a floor spacer, but he also relies heavily on energy and athleticism, with a post game that's still developing. Defensively, he's active but not yet all that effective, with an upside hovering around league-average.

As an entire package, the Morehead State success story seems difficult to value. He improved a great deal down the stretch in 2013-14 and looked terrific for Team USA at the FIBA World Cup. He's still just 24. 

So how does a team go about valuing a player who is already good, projects as possibly very good, but is unlikely to be elite? And all of this with the backdrop of a salary cap that is sure to rise with a lucrative new TV deal for the league?

Early Monday morning, the Denver Nuggets reportedly agreed to a five-year, $60 million contract extension with their Manimal, one that will kick in following this season and guarantee him at least $52 million.

That's not an exorbitant price. It's a pretty good deal for both sides, actually.

Based strictly on what he's done to date, it's an overpay. Faried will be paid like a top-10 power forward despite having career-best averages of 13.7 points (2013-14) and 9.2 rebounds (2012-13). That's valuable, but it's not top-10 production at the position, especially with below-average defense. He's efficient, with a 19.8 player efficiency rating last year that was top 10 among power forwards, but he also had a usage rate only a hair above the league average.

On resume alone, he's probably an $8 million player. The Nuggets, then, have priced in some upside.

There are clear signs of improvement that make that a smart bet. As mentioned, he improved a great deal down the stretch as he and head coach Brian Shaw found a groove that suited them both. After the All-Star break, his numbers jumped considerably:

That's not just a blip or an anomaly. Faried got noticeably better on offense, adding small wrinkles to his game while Shaw found the best ways to make use of his unique gifts and put him in a position to succeed. He's still not rangy, but he's lethal as the dive man in the pick-and-roll and his post game is coming along.

Even if Faried doesn't push past average defensively, there's a strong chance the improvements he's made, and will continue to make, will see him earn his $12 million annually.

Factor in the expected jump in the salary cap and the reality that the Nuggets were able to lock down a young core player before that explosion, and this is probably a win for the team. Faried's camp may have been better served waiting until next summer to negotiate as a restricted free agent, after a season of improvement and with a better idea of where the cap is going, but locking down long-term guaranteed money and eliminating risk is rarely a bad move.

Faried is a tough player to value, but it seems the Nuggets found a fair price for their unique talent.