Preseason Fact or Fiction

There's a lot more to the NBA preseason than wins and losses.

As players work their way back into game shape, fight for jobs, and acclimate themselves with new wrinkles on each end of the floor, the collective focus can't reasonably be on game results. In the bigger picture, preseason records reveal only a little about a team for the upcoming season.

The games happen, though, and while the end result isn't necessarily important, there's a great deal of information contained within those seven or eight exhibitions. There's also a great deal of misinformation.

Below are 10 findings from the preseason, some of which appear to portend changes, others which are red herrings.

FACT: The Lakers' offense is terrible

Byron Scott's 3-point avoidant offense looks a mess. The Los Angeles Lakers ranked 26th in preseason offense with 98 points per-100 possessions, a mark that would have ranked dead last over the entire 2013-14 NBA season. There were slightly worse teams, but short of Orlando and Philadelphia, there may not be an attack as dysfunctional as Los Angeles'.

Threes aren't everything, but they're a pretty efficient look compared to mid-range jumpers. A balanced offense is desirable, and attacking the basket is a great way to break a defense down, but there's strong evidence - statistical and film - that strong play beyond the arc can help with those ends.

Instead, the Lakers took only 10.3 threes a game and made just 3.1, being outscored by 16.5 points a game from long range. What's worse, the Lakers also did a poor job getting to the line, so it's unclear to what end Scott's scheme is working toward. Adapt or perish, coach.

Oh, and Kobe Bryant averaging a shot every 95 seconds of play? Believe that.

FICTION: The Thunder are in trouble

With Kevin Durant on the sideline until some time in December, the Oklahoma City Thunder are facing a tough 20 games or so to start the season. Their 2-5 preseason record is hardly cause for concern, but the degree to which they lost - they were outscored by 11 points per-100 possessions, the worst mark in the league - may have fans worried about life without Durant.

Breathe, Thunder fans. The defense ranked sixth a year ago, and the personnel and scheme are largely unchanged, so posting by far the worst preseason defensive numbers is probably a mirage. Durant is a disruptive defender, but the drop off on that end without him is overstated by the preseason results.

There's more to be concerned on offense, having lost the league's best scorer, along with Anthony Morrow, the team's best shooter. But Russell Westbrook will be great - he was mortal in the preseason - and the team will eventually find consistent production on the wing. The offense won't be the same until Durant's back, but the Thunder aren't going to be getting pasted nightly.

FACT: The Suns and Sixers are going to run

Every team wants to play faster every season, so the media day narratives go. 

The Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers are putting that into practice early, playing the preseason at paces that would be the league's fastest since the Golden State Warriors in 2009-10. This isn't particularly surprising for either, and while they may not top 100 possessions per game as they did in exhibition, they're very likely to battle for the league's fastest tempo. 

For the Suns, this is all about system. Head coach Jeff Hornacek has a roster full of point guards, at least two of whom will always be on the floor, and they've largely eschewed traditional big men for more offensively flexible bigs. They ranked eighth in pace a year ago and appear set to dial it up further.

The 76ers are doing this for an entirely different reason: because why not? Bereft of quality NBA players, the Sixers led the league in pace last year and may repeat the feat with head coach Brett Brown letting the kids get out and run.

FICTION: The Spurs' reign is over

Kawhi Leonard is out with an eye infection, Manu Ginobili is admitting to being rusty, Boris Diaw went grey over the offseason, and Gregg Popovich has called his team out for being disinterested. Is this the beginning of the end of the Spurs' vaunted dynasty?

Of course not. Preseason matters to varying degrees by team, and the defending champs - returning 14 players, no less - can enter 2014-15 with continuity as a crutch. The 21.6 turnovers and bottom-five defense are minor concerns, sure, but there's little doubt those will be smoothed out in short order.

As they say, they're the champions 'til they ain't the champions no more. It may be worth noting that of their five titles, none came in repeat fashion, but that mostly speaks to the difficulty of winning in the NBA than any Disease of More in San Antonio.

FACT: The Cavaliers' offense is insane

This probably needs little explanation: the Cleveland Cavaliers have LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and a creative offensive head coach in David Blatt. They have weapons for days, and their offense may ultimately prove historically lethal.

The Cavs scored 112.6 points per-100 possessions in the preseason, which would stand as the league's best mark since the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns. what should terrify opponents is that, while an eight-game sample may regress, the Cavs will probably get better as the season rolls along and they find a comfort and familiarity with each other and the system.

Quick Facts & Fiction

• FACT: Anthony Davis is terrifyingly good, and may be set to solidify himself as a top-five player. His 37.7 preseason PER isn't sustainable, of course, but there's strong evidence he's set to become a megastar.
• FICTION: Jared Sullinger is not suddenly a 3-point marksman. Sullinger had a great preseason, shooting 50 percent from long range and averaging 14.9 points and 10.9 rebounds, and he has very clearly improved as an offensive player. We're fans, especially for fantasy purposes, but he's not suddenly Channing Frye from outside.
• FACT: Dante Exum is going to struggle. He's exciting to watch and intriguing in the long run, but Exum has hardly looked game-ready, shooting only 46.6 percent and turning the ball over every eight minutes of play. The patience may eventually be worth it.
• FICTION: Giannis Antetokounmpo can't play point guard. The experiment is a lot of fun and the Bucks have every incentive to try it, but the preseason returns weren't encouraging and it'd be a surprise if it's more than a short-stint gimmick look for head coach Jason Kidd.
• Still TBD: Jimmy Butler might be the Jimmy Butler that Bulls fans had been hoping for, just a year later. He shot 58.8 percent in the preseason and posted a 33.7 PER, but his progress has once again been slowed, this time by a minor thumb ailment.

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