Why we should pump the brakes on the Michigan hype train
The first edition of the CFP rankings were released Tuesday night, and Michigan found itself in the No. 3 spot.
Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have raced to an 8-0 start behind an absolutely dominant defensive unit holding opponents to a nation-best 11.6 points per game.
All signs point to the Nov. 26 rivalry game against No. 6 Ohio State as a play-in game to the final four, but it might be time to slow down the Michigan hype train a little.
Here are three reasons why Michigan probably isn't as good as it looks right now:
1. The opposition's offense has been terrible
Heaps of praise have been lavished upon Michigan's defense, and at first glance it seems well-deserved - but the offensive units Michigan's faced this season have been absolutely awful.
| Team | National Rank |
|---|---|
| Hawaii | 63 |
| UCF | 53 |
| Colorado | 33 |
| Penn State | 39 |
| Wisconsin | 95 |
| Rutgers | 125 |
| Illinois | 108 |
| Michigan State | 104 |
Not one offense Michigan has played this season ranks in the top 30 in the country. The average rank of the opponent's offense this season for the Wolverines is 77.5. Comparing that to No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Clemson's competition doesn't bode well for Michigan.
The Crimson Tide are fourth in the country in scoring defense despite their opposition's offense sporting an average rank of 54th, while the Tigers are 11th in scoring defense while facing an offense with an average No. 50 rank.
Michigan's defense has certainly been lights-out, but that shouldn't be overly surprising considering the teams it's played.
2. The opposing quarterbacks - also terrible
The quarterback position is often thought to be the most important in all of sports. If that's true, it's no wonder the Wolverines' defense has been incredible.
The list of opposition quarterbacks that Harbaugh's outfit has faced is ... not impressive.
| Player | Completion % | TD/INT | Raw QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ikaika Woolsey (Hawaii) | 48.9 | 6/6 | 30.3 |
| Justin Holman (UCF) | 41.2 | 2/2 | 22 |
| *Sefo Liufau (Colorado) | 67.4 | 7/0 | 63.6 |
| Trace McSorley (Penn State) | 55.2 | 12/3 | 54 |
| Alex Hornibrook (Wisconsin) | 57.3 | 6/7 | 38.5 |
| Chris Laviano (Rutgers) | 48.3 | 5/2 | 21 |
| Jeff George Jr. (Illinois) | 40.8 | 2/1 | 9.7 |
| Brian Lewerke (Michigan State) | 54.4 | 2/1 | 62 |
The only name that jumps off that list in a positive way is Colorado's Sefo Liufau, but before you say Michigan beat him, there's a reason a * is beside his name.
Liufau torched the Wolverines for 246 yards and three touchdowns before leaving the game with injury. He's the only top-level pivot Michigan has seen this year, and he had his way with the usually dominant secondary. As for the rest:
- Hawaii's Ikaika Woolsey and UCF's Justin Holman have both been replaced as starters by underclassmen.
- Michigan is the only Big Ten team that Trace McSorley has completed over 55 percent of his passes against this season.
- Alex Hornibrook has only thrown for 200-plus yards once in his career.
- Chris Laviano ranks 116th out of 117 qualified quarterbacks in passer efficiency rating.
- Jeff George Jr. was making the first appearance of his collegiate career against the Wolverines.
- Brian Lewerke had thrown 25 passes in his career with Michigan State prior to last weekend's game.
Michigan's secondary is lined with a ton of star power, but it's easy to shine when one is surrounded by darkness.
3. Michigan's only played 2 road games
Michigan may be undefeated, but it's only left the friendly confines of the Big House twice all season. Those two opponents were Rutgers and Michigan State, a pair of teams sporting a combined 4-12 record this year. The Wolverines have the largest stadium in college football, one that gives them a massive home advantage when playing in front of 115,000 strong.
Through eight games, Alabama has played road contests at Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas, and a neutral-site contest with USC. The combined record of those teams is 18-14. Clemson has played four games on the road thus far in 2016, beating Auburn, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Florida State. That quartet of programs is a combined 20-12.
The Wolverines have two road contests remaining, and they will be the toughest on the schedule. A Nov. 12 trip to Iowa looms after this weekend's game against Maryland, with the annual rivalry game in Ohio State on Nov. 26.
What does this all mean?
Through eight games of the season, it's clear that Jim Harbaugh has a very good team at Michigan, but it's way too early to declare the Wolverines great. Simply put, they haven't been tested the same way as the other top-ranked teams in the country.
The Wolverines could very well storm through the month of November and reach the College Football Playoff, but at this point, a loss to Ohio State at the end of the season looks more likely.