Counterattack - Sometimes You Win, Sometimes You Luis
Here are the top contrarian plays for Friday, April 15:
SP Luis Severino, Yankees (vs. Mariners)
DFS players will inevitably come to a fork in the road when crafting a tournament lineup on Friday. Down one path are the safe arms of Cy Young-caliber aces like Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner. The other path is blanketed with a fog of uncertainty.
That's the case against rostering Yankees starter Luis Severino; given the deep slate at pitcher, the sophomore is not going to see high ownership.
Here are the positives: Severino has struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings, and has allowed a career .234 batting average with just three home runs to left-handed batters. Lefty hitters essentially comprise the entire core of the Mariners' lineup, except for OF Nelson Cruz and C Chris Iannetta.
SS Ian Desmond, Rangers (vs. Orioles)
Desmond is hitting just .174 through 11 games this season with no extra-base hits and just one RBI, yet his DFS salary is a stone's through away from elite SSs like Manny Machado and Troy Tulowitzki.
Based on his recent run, don't expect a three-hit night from the Rangers' offseason acquisition. Instead, Desmond's long-ball potential is the main attraction here. He has two HRs in 14 at-bats against Orioles SP Vance Worley, who has an uncharacteristically-high 1.9 HR/9 so far this season.
Worley's homer rate has been below 0.8 in each of his five seasons as a starter in the NL but he gave up 1.7 HR/9 in 10 starts with the Twins in 2013. Both Desmond and 2B Rougned Odor are off to slow starts but could warm up against Worley in Texas.
2B Logan Forsythe, Rays (vs. White Sox)
With Sale on the mound against a weak Tampa Bay lineup, Rays of hope will likely be few and far between. But Forsythe should see a fair number of plate appearances batting leadoff, and is worth a flier.
Sale gave up a lower batting average and on-base percentage to opposing right-handed batters in 2015 (.230 and .272) but all 23 of his homers were given up to righties. At the dish, Forsythe is a career .279 hitter with a .347 OBP against lefties.
That isn't to say that Sale is in trouble, Forsythe does have an opportunity to make some noise. An extra-base hit and a walk would represent big contrarian value.