Fantasy Fallout: Life Changes in a Flash for Dee Gordon's Owners
While Floridians and East Coast fantasy baseball fans alike were fast asleep Thursday night, Major League Baseball announced that Miami Marlins star 2B Dee Gordon was suspended 80 games for testing positive for exogenous testosterone and clostebol.
Here are the immediate fantasy repercussions from this unfolding situation:
Daily Fantasy
The Marlins' lineup is priced in DFS as if it still has a lead-off hitter with a talent (natural or otherwise) for getting into scoring position. With no obvious replacement at the major-league level or the minors, that will mean fewer RBIs for middle-of-the order types like OF Giancarlo Stanton, OF Christian Yelich and 3B Martin Prado.
On the flip side, utility infielder Derek Dietrich should see full-time status for the time being, either as the starting second basemen or as a third baseman with Prado moving back to the position he has played for most of his career. Dietrich had hit .333 with a .419 OBP in 31 plate appearances but his back-up status means that his price is still relatively low.
Other than the value that Dietrich presents, Gordon's absence will lower the ceiling of the entire Marlins lineup. Fade Prado, Stanton and Yelich until their price drops in line with their reduced RBI chances.
DFSers should pay attention to how the team handles lead-off duties in their next couple of games. One scenario would be to move Yelich (.478 OBP) into the one-spot, keep Prado at two, and move Stanton to the three-spot. More plate appearances for Yelich would mean an increase in runs but a decrease in RBI opportunities.
Season-Long Fantasy
Gordon's owners don't have many options here. The All-Star was drafted too high to simply drop him outright, considering he will still be eligible to return in mid-July. On the other hand, unless a league allows suspended players to be rostered in a special "not available" slot, he'll just have to occupy a spot on a bench.
Fantasy players that aren't adverse to risk could try to buy low on Gordon, eating a roster spot for the potential reward of having a top-25 player back in time for the playoffs. It's hard to say what a fair offer would be, but that is the type of move a current front-runner could make without putting their playoff positioning at risk.
The Marlins' Triple-A affiliate is stocked with 2Bs in their mid-30s that aren't likely to have any major league impact. Within the organization, Dietrich is the only player likely to see a major boost in playing time.
Dietrich is still only 26 and was a second-round pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010, so there's still some deep sleeper potential. The reason why he largely hasn't panned out as anything more than a utility man is because he absolutely cannot hit left-handed pitching. While he has hit a respectable .246 with a .335 OBP against RHPs, those numbers plummet to .205 and .260 against LHPs in his career.
That fatal flaw will kill his fantasy value, especially when his .400 BABIP begins to regress to the mean. He'll continue bat sixth or seventh against righties and likely not at all against southpaws. In the end, he won't hit well enough or see enough plate appearances to really contribute in the counting stat categories (runs, RBIs, home runs, steals).
Waiver Targets
- Tampa Bay Rays 2B Logan Forsythe will likely settle in as a .280 hitter with 15 HR and 15 SB potential. He's owned in roughly 60 percent of leagues, so he won't be available everywhere, but he's a fine stop-gap for fantasy players that desperately wanted a Florida-based lead-off man.
- Milwaukee Brewers SS/3B Jonathan Villar can fulfill the main reason why Gordon was drafted in the first place: steals. He has two through 18 games but finished with 42 in just 113 games split between the Astros and their Triple-A affiliate in 2015. His batting average can't compare to Gordon's but he has always posted fine walk rates and could see more playing time with Scooter Gennett hitting the 15-day DL.
- Cincinnati Reds SS Zack Cozart has never relied heavily on walks to get on base, but he's hitting everything right now as the Reds' lead-off man. Even on a weak lineup, he'll have plenty of opportunities to score runs. His batting average could settle in around .300, making him a cheap source of BA in the short term.