Can Derby runner-up Exaggerator upset Nyquist at the Preakness?

Katie Lamb will be providing preview content for the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for theScore this season. Katie's horse-racing coverage has appeared in The New York Times and the Toronto Star.

If horses could talk, Kentucky Derby runner-up Exaggerator would say he's tired of seeing Nyquist’s backside.

The two colts have met in four races and, on each occasion, Nyquist left Exaggerator in his wake, the last time being the Derby on May 7 when Nyquist held off a charging Exaggerator to take the "Run for the Roses" by one-and-a-quarter lengths.

Before the Derby, Nyquist, named for the Detroit Red Wings’ Gustav Nyquist, and Exaggerator had crossed paths in an allowance race, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and the San Vicente Stakes. Nyquist won each of those races, while Exaggerator finished fifth, fourth, and second, respectively.

“If (Exaggerator) knows anything about Nyquist, it’s the rear view,” Exaggerator’s trainer, Keith Desormeaux, said.

The unbeaten Nyquist is the 3-5 favorite for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of the Triple Crown, held at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Exaggerator is the second choice, at 3-1.

Nyquist drew the third stall in the starting gate while Exaggerator has the fifth spot.

Chance to upset

Will Exaggerator finally be able to turn the tables on his archnemesis?

“Obviously numbers-wise, horse for horse-wise, it’s tough to think we can beat him, right?” Desormeaux said of Nyquist on Tuesday at Pimlico.

The pair of colts have a lot in common: both are based out of stables in California and both showed a lot of promise as 2-year-olds, and thus, were early favorites for the Triple Crown trail. However, both have been campaigned differently to get there, which Desormeaux thinks could work in Exaggerator’s favor.

Nyquist has only had eight races to date, a relatively light schedule compared to Exaggerator, who has raced 10 times.

“Nyquist, I think the goal was to keep him fresh by only running him twice this year (before the Derby), but maybe that will backfire,” Desormeaux said. “Exaggerator has much more racing experience (10 races to eight), therefore fitness and the attribute of recovering quickly.”

X-factor

The Preakness is just two weeks after the Derby, which is a very short distance between races for race horses these days, Desormeaux said. And he thinks Exaggerator’s extra seasoning will help his energy between the two races.

The two colts also have two distinctly different running styles, which were showcased in the Derby. When the gates opened, Nyquist popped out quickly and spent the majority of the race laying just off the pacesetter, Danzing Candy, and then claimed the lead in the stretch and did not look back.

Exaggerator spent most of the race at the back of the pack and unleashed his speed in the latter portion. He was still in 15th place after three-quarters of a mile, but quickly began to knife his way through the pack and was charging down the lane, making up almost 16 lengths from the three-quarter pole to the finish.

Exaggerator will be ridden by Desormeaux’s brother Kent, who has won the Preakness twice before.

There is a myth that the Preakness, run at a distance of one 3/16 miles and the shortest leg of the Triple Crown, favors speedy-type horses, but many racing insiders disagree, saying the dirt track historically doesn't give an advantage to front-runners.

Where Exaggerator might gain an edge is in the condition of the dirt. Rain is forecast on Saturday in Baltimore, and the chance of a muddy track will not upset the Desormeauxes. Exaggerator won the Santa Anita Derby impressively in the slop, while Nyquist has yet to be tested on a wet track.

Still, the Preakness is Nyquist’s race to lose. But the Desormeaux brothers are hoping the fifth time is the charm for Exaggerator.

"He’s tough to beat, but it's fun trying," Keith Desormeaux told Blood-Horse.