Saturday's Starting Pitcher Value Rankings
Here are theScore's starting pitcher value rankings for Saturday, June 11 (all stats from Friday's games are excluded):
Value Rankings
C | 1B/DH | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP
Top Options
NAME | OPPONENT | VALUE |
---|---|---|
Jose Fernandez (MIA) | at ARI | 10 |
Matt Shoemaker (LAA) | vs. CLE | 10 |
Jake Arrieta (CHC) | at ATL | 9 |
Logan Verrett (NYM) | at MIL | 8 |
Chris Archer (TB) | vs. HOU | 8 |
Justin Verlander (DET) | at NYY | 8 |
No pitcher in the game features a higher strikeout ceiling on a per-game basis than Fernandez. While some may favor the equally expensive Arrieta for his general stability, Fernandez has been a strikeout machine and has seriously cut down on his walks. He has only issued two free passes over his last four starts (27 innings) and hasn't walked a single batter over his last two.
Shoemaker allowed four earned runs in his last start, but he was cruising until the eighth inning. He's throwing his split-finger fastball with much more regularity, and since he's made that adjustment the results have been much better. Archer has slowly turned his season around, notching 12 strikeouts in his last start. Houston has power, but they whiff more than any other team.
Verrett is a solid, cheap handcuff for a top pitching name in two-pitcher formats. The Brewers strike out a ton, giving Verrett added K-upside. The big risk is that he has pitched primarily from the bullpen and may not be fully stretched out.
Mid-Tier Targets
NAME | OPPONENT | VALUE |
---|---|---|
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) | at MIN | 7 |
Dan Straily (CIN) | vs. OAK | 7 |
Jose Quintana (CWS) | vs. KC | 7 |
J.A. Happ (TOR) | vs. BAL | 6 |
James Paxton (SEA) | vs. TEX | 6 |
Carlos Martinez (STL) | at PIT | 6 |
Jeff Samardzija (SF) | vs. LAD | 6 |
Colby Lewis (TEX) | at SEA | 5 |
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) | vs. DET | 5 |
Straily arrives with a mid-tier price tag against the A's, who sit 26th overall in team OPS, and who have a .685 OPS against right-handed pitching. He hasn't had his strikeout stroke working, totaling only seven Ks over his last 13 innings. He did strike out 11 over seven innings against the Dodgers on May 25, so the ceiling is higher than he's shown of late.
Happ was touched up for six runs in his last start, something he hadn't cumulatively allowed over his previous three outings. The good news is the Orioles have desperately struggled against lefties, posting a .688 OPS against southpaws, the fifth-worst mark in the majors.
Paxton handled Cleveland in his last start, only his second of the season, but gets a much more difficult task against the Rangers. Texas batters have a .291 batting average against lefties. While they may be prone to the odd strikeout, they're also going to string hits together in bunches.
Nothing to See Here
NAME | OPPONENT | VALUE |
---|---|---|
Tyler Chatwood (COL) | vs. SD | 4 |
Mike Fiers (HOU) | at TB | 4 |
Trevor Bauer (CLE) | at LAA | 4 |
Mike Wright (BAL) | at TOR | 3 |
Francisco Liriano (PIT) | vs. STL | 3 |
Scott Kazmir (LAD) | at SF | 3 |
Zack Godley (ARI) | vs. MIA | 2 |
Chris Young (CWS) | vs. KC | 2 |
Matt Wisler (ATL) | vs. CHC | 2 |
Erik Johnson (SD) | at COL | 1 |
Wily Peralta (MIL) | vs. NYM | 1 |
Kyle Gibson (MIN) | vs. BOS | 1 |
Chatwood has been far more reliable starting on the road where he owns a 0.65 ERA over six starts. Still, he's shown some success at home, notably a seven-inning start against San Francisco in late May where he allowed only a single unearned run on four hits. He only fanned three, but he was steady. The Padres are not nearly as strong of an offensive team as the Giants, either.
Bauer had his best start on the season against the Mariners on Monday, striking out 10 over 7 2/3 innings pitched. He only walked one and allowed one earned run. He was dominant. While the Angels may not seem too threatening, they also have struck out much less often than any other team: their 364 punchouts are 29 fewer than the Giants.
Talk about trial by fire. Gibson is coming off the DL just in time to face Boston and its best offense in baseball. Selecting him is not a contrarian play, it's just foolhardy.
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