Winning Isn't Everything: Pitchers Who Demand Replacing Wins With Quality Starts
"He just knows how to win," goes an ancient baseball proverb. This is nonsense. When Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award in 2010, many articles covering the feat drew attention to the fact that he won only 13 games that season. While he recorded 21 first place votes, David Price and CC Sabathia each received first place votes as well. Why? They won more games.
While the prevailing sentiments about the value of a pitcher win has waned, it's still a fairly common counting stat and talking point on baseball broadcasts and is usually among the stats used in all fantasy league formats. This should be a thing of the past.
Quality starts are hardly perfect, but they provide a better picture of success. A starter must finish six innings while allowing no more than three earned runs. It doesn't erase luck and it doesn't consider good or bad defense, but it does prevent a pitcher being awarded or penalized because run support.
For example, Baltimore Orioles SP Chris Tillman registered a win against the Blue Jays on Sunday, tossing five innings while allowing five hits and four earned runs. In Edinson Volquez's last start, he allowed five ERs in 6 1/3 innings, but the Royals scored 16 runs that game, making it very difficult for him to lose in spite of his poor performance.
In fantasy, players should be rewarded for better play across the board and not fluke into category wins despite inconsistent play. Here are a few pitchers who deserve better treatment in fantasy, and are poster boys for this proposed sea of change. We can make this happen.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
W-L | K/9 | ERA | WHIP | QS |
---|---|---|---|---|
3-7 | 8.45 | 2.66 | 0.91 | 9 |
Teheran is the strongest example of a player whose owners absolutely deserve better. The Atlanta Braves are bad, but that hasn't stopped Teheran from putting together what looks like his best season yet. His K-rate is up, his ERA is better than ever and he's on pace to pitch 200 innings for the third straight season. He's one of the most reliable hands in fantasy.
Or, he would be if his nine quality starts out of 15 trumped his poor 3-7 record. Expecting this, Teheran's ADP had him as the 71st pitcher taken in this year's drafts. Former Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson had a higher ADP. Wins or not, no one would consider Tolleson better than Teheran at this point, but knowing one category would be moot - at no fault of his own - hurt his value.
He's still only owned in just over 80 percent of leagues. While this should increase after nearly throwing a perfect game on Sunday against the Mets, it's still much lower than it should be. Blue Jays SP Marcus Stroman and Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright are more commonly rostered despite both having ERAs around 5.00. Guess what? Both have more wins.
Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
W-L | K/9 | ERA | WHIP | QS |
---|---|---|---|---|
5-2 | 7.83 | 2.58 | 0.98 | 10 |
Conventional wisdom on Estrada suggested he was due for major regression in 2016 after putting up the best season of his career in his Blue Jays debut. It hasn't happened yet, and while he has posted a winning record, he only has half as many wins as quality starts. In four of his no-decisions, he's allowed one run or fewer.
Like the others mentioned here, Estrada has benefited fantasy owners in ERA, WHIP and, to a lesser extent, strikeouts. Only once this season has Estrada failed to finish six innings. This longevity means his strikeout total could be more helpful than a pitcher with a greater K/9 like White Sox SP Carlos Rodon.
Rodon has started an equal number of games, but because he hasn't gone as deep into games, he has struck out two fewer batters despite having a 8.80 K/9. He also has two fewer quality starts. Granted, Rodon's inflated ERA and lack of wins has reduced his ownership, as well.
While a fall isn't out of the question, Estrada should be rostered in all formats until the wins come. His teammate, J.A. Happ, is worth mentioning too, as he's owned in fewer than 60 percent of leagues despite 11 quality starts, eight wins, and a 3.41 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Even though the eight wins are good in standard leagues, the 11 quality starts are even better.
Jose Quintana, White Sox
W-L | K/9 | ERA | WHIP | QS |
---|---|---|---|---|
5-7 | 8.48 | 2.63 | 1.08 | 11 |
Quintana has lost six consecutive decisions. While he certainly hasn't been as sharp lately as he was early on - making him a possible buy-low candidate if league opponents are getting worried about the lack of wins - he's still been valuable. He's completed six innings in all but two starts on the season.
He's also the first name where the majority of fantasy owners have seemingly agreed to ignore the problems with his win-loss record, as he's owned in over 90 percent of leagues. This is nothing new to Quintana owners as they had to suffer through his 25 quality starts in 2015 that yielded an unfortunate nine wins. Only Shelby Miller was haunted more by the lack of run support.
Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers
W-L | K/9 | ERA | WHIP | QS |
---|---|---|---|---|
6-0 | 5.61 | 2.81 | 1.01 | 12 |
He's undefeated! Lewis will never be a fantasy darling because of the low K-rate and the history of mediocrity, though he won 17 games last season. His low ownership shows that no one really bought into the wins, especially since he had a 4.66 ERA in 2015.
Still, he's a viable streaming option who gains more value if quality starts are an included stat. He has benefited from solid defense as his 4.20 FIP suggests, but leaving him on the waiver wire has prevented fantasy owners from capitalizing.
Let's Do This
If you still operate on dusty old pitcher wins as a statistic of value, it's time to petition your league for change. This year is a wash, but assuming you play with the same group every year, there's no time like the present to make plans for 2017. Add quality starts into the mix and start valuing players for their own success, rather than that of their team's offense.