Fantasy Fallout: Chapman's Cubs value hinges on him assuming closer role
Here are the fantasy implications of the Chicago Cubs reportedly acquiring closer Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees:
In 31 games as a Yankee, Chapman has been as unhittable as ever, holding a 0.89 WHIP and a 2.01 ERA while striking out 12.64 batters per nine innings, which actually represents a drop off from his career K/9 rate of 15.16. More importantly for fantasy purposes, Chapman has recorded 20 saves despite having been suspended for the season's opening 30 games.
While Chapman joining the Cubs' bullpen is a great real-life addition, it slightly hurts the Cuba native's fantasy value, even if he's handed the ninth-inning role in Chicago. The Cubs, despite a MLB-leading 59 wins, have only produced 19 total saves from its relief corps, with 18 coming from Hector Rondon.
That's not a knock on Rondon, who holds a 1.95 ERA. Essentially, the Cubs, who have baseball's second-best staff ERA and its fourth-highest-scoring offense, so frequently blow out their opponents that they win by a margin greater than the three-run maximum required for a one-inning save.
Whichever of Rondon or Chapman loses out on the closer role is still a useful fantasy asset, though three to four innings of scoreless relief and a handful of strikeouts a week isn't quite the same as the all-important counting stat that is the save. Chapman's teammate in New York, Andrew Miller, has been an extremely serviceable fantasy pitcher despite only having recorded seven saves.
Miller is striking out 15.37 batters per nine innings, and holds a 1.45 ERA. If he stays a Yankee past the trade deadline, expect him to assume the closer role he held during Chapman's suspension. Owned in the vast majority of fantasy leagues despite his setup role, there's not much hope of landing Miller on the waiver wire.
Notes
- Swingman Adam Warren is returning to the Bronx in the trade. He was dealt to the Cubs in the deal that sent Starlin Castro to the Yankees. In deep leagues, especially AL-Only formats, Warren could regain some fantasy value despite his struggles this season. In 131 1/3 innings with New York in 2015, he managed a 3.29 ERA and 7.13 K/9.
- Shortstop Gleyber Torres, now formerly the top prospect left in the Cubs' system, is only of value in dynasty keeper formats. He is 19 years old and has spent 2016 in Single-A Advanced. He's still a couple years away from being fantasy relevant.