Why the Warriors won't reach 73 wins

Welcome to theScore's preview of the 2016-17 NBA season.

Ever since Kevin Durant's arrival in the Bay Area, NBA fans began to speculate on whether the Golden State Warriors could top last year's 73-win team.

While many believe that adding a former MVP to an already loaded roster will only increase the Warriors' win total, it's important to note that last season's record-breaking campaign was comprised of a combination of good play and good fortune.

Although the Warriors may be more talented with Durant aboard, reaching 73 wins will prove a challenge should their unsustainable stretch of luck end this season.

Record in close games

Last season, the Warriors finished with the NBA's highest winning percentage in games decided by three points or fewer, going 7-2 in such contests.

While part of their impressive mark was based on the Warriors' incredible ability to close out games, there was also a certain degree of luck involved to achieve such a high winning percentage. One shot can decide the difference in such contests, meaning the ball bounced the Warriors' way more often than not last season.

With virtually the same cast in 2014-15, the Warriors finished 5-3 in games decided by three points or less - a mark they are more likely to duplicate during the upcoming season.

Injuries

It's no secret that the Warriors have been more than fortunate with injuries during the last two regular seasons.

Neither Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, nor Draymond Green has missed more than five games total over the last two seasons - a stretch of incredible health for the trio.

Considering how random and unpredictable the majority of injuries are, it's entirely possible that the Warriors could see one of their core players go down for an extended period of time during the upcoming campaign. Such an event could spell trouble for the top-heavy Warriors, who have fewer dependable bench players compared to last year's squad.

While Durant recovered nicely from a fractured foot in 2014-15, his injury history is also a point of concern. A number of former big men who suffered the same foot problem experienced reoccurring issues throughout the remainder of their careers, so it's inaccurate to assume the 6-foot-9 forward is in the clear just yet.

Point differential

While Golden State's point differential of plus-10.8 was certainly impressive, it wasn't nearly as high as some of the other all-time regular-season teams.

Based on Basketball Reference's Pythagorean win formula, the Warriors should've finished last season with 65 wins, eight fewer than they ended up with.

After blowing out teams for much of the first half of 2015-16, Golden State's defense took a tumble following the All-Star break, surrendering 100 points or more in 21 of their final 30 contests.

While it's unfair to discount the Warriors' 24-game winning streak when looking back at their season, Golden State's play following its historic start is likely a better representation of how the Warriors will fair this year.

They already hold the record

Last season, the Warriors spent the entire season gunning for the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls' record - a mark they eclipsed on the final day of the regular season.

Instead of resting his key players down the stretch, head coach Steve Kerr allowed them to play extended minutes in an attempt to chase history. Curry, Thompson, and Green all saw their minutes per game increase following the All-Star break, despite Golden State's lead in the standings.

Now that Golden State holds the record, Kerr has considerably less incentive to do the same this season, especially after watching how injuries affected his team's play in last year's postseason.

Projecting wins

Based on a two-year average of each player's win shares, the Warriors are expected to win 70 games in 2016-17 - a record likely good enough to net them the No. 1 seed, but still three wins shy of last year's mark.

*extrapolated over 82 games

While Golden State could certainly best its projection, the team will need to catch lightning in a bottle for the second straight season in order to do so.