Is the Sixers' epic rebuild finally ready to bear fruit?
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It's been three long, long, very long years for the Philadelphia 76ers, and we'll soon find out what they have to show for their extraordinary patience.
The plan was always for things to get worse before they got better for the Sixers, and last season was the rockiest of rock bottoms. They matched the all-time NBA record by losing their first 18 games of the season, and in so doing, ran their cumulative losing streak to 28 - breaking their own historical benchmark for sustained ineptitude. They became the first team in history to lose 30 of their first 31 games. They were outscored, on average, by more than 10 points per night. And when it was all over, they'd won 10 games, narrowly avoiding becoming just the second team ever to finish an 82-game season with a single-digit win total (another ignominious distinction that happens to belong to their own franchise).
Related: 2016-17 NBA Season Preview: Philadelphia 76ers
But the night is darkest before the dawn, and if you squint hard enough at the horizon, you can see the sky starting to brighten over Philadelphia. Make no mistake, they're going to be very bad again this year. But there's a good chance they'll avoid being historically bad, and that even in their very-badness, they'll show signs of meaningful progress that's been absent from their past three historically bad seasons.
A new hope
Ben Simmons was the prize. It took four cracks, but the Sixers' scorched-earth approach to rebuilding finally delivered them a No. 1 overall draft pick, and in Simmons, they appear to have landed a foundational star.
With the body of a power forward, the athleticism of a wing, and the handle and vision of a point guard, Simmons is a unique talent who should boost the team's respectability rating from the jump. He gives them something they haven't had throughout their self-imposed stay in the cellar: an offensive fulcrum. His shooting is iffy, but all the other tools are there. This is the kind of player the Sixers have been tanking for all these years.
How or if the rest of the puzzle snaps into place around Simmons is anybody's best guess. In their three previous drafts, the Sixers picked third, third, sixth, 10th, and 11th, but so far all that's left them with is an imbalanced roster that's riddled with more question marks than Jim Carey's Riddler onesie. Still, there's enough potential in that misfit group to think that they'll hit on something. Something ... big.
The big-man bottleneck
Simmons won't be the only rookie making his hotly anticipated NBA debut in Philly this season. The Sixers should finally (knock on wood) get to see what they have in center Joel Embiid, who's primed to suit up for the first time since being drafted third overall in the summer of 2014. Repeated setbacks with a troublesome right foot have kept Embiid grounded until now, but there's anecdotal evidence to suggest he may be ready to soar.
Then there's Jahlil Okafor, the center the Sixers took with the No. 3 pick in 2015. Okafor flashed a refined post game and a nice scoring touch, but he struggled mightily as a rebounder and defender, and his rookie season quickly spiraled both on and off the court.
It's probably too early to give up on Okafor, but last season proved pretty definitively that he's not going to be a clean fit next to Nerlens Noel (the forward-center the Sixers drafted sixth overall in 2013), which would explain why the team is reportedly looking to trade one of them. Noel is a bouncy, scampering bundle of energy with the potential to be a defensive stalwart, but he's a limited offensive player who has poor hands and no shooting range.
Dario Saric, the big man the Sixers drafted 12th overall in 2014, is a smooth, crafty stretch-four type who's coming overseas after thriving for two years in the Turkish League. His skill set should translate well to the NBA, but his underwhelming length, strength, and athleticism may not.
Add it all up and you've got a logjammed frontcourt that seems destined to produce at least a couple long-term rotation players and squeeze at least one player out. The good news is, without the burden of any sort of short-term expectation, the Sixers can afford to be patient, gather intel, and experiment before making a decision. And if they're lucky, the odd man (or men) out will still carry enough cachet to fetch a decent bounty in a trade.
Turning the page
If former general manager Sam Hinkie had a blind spot in his bold vision, it was for the strain so much compounded losing would place on the Sixers' culture; on its players, its fans, its brand, its front office, or even himself.
It's hard to suddenly pivot from a losing ethos to a winning one, but that's what the new regime, under general manager Bryan Colangelo, has been tasked with. Colangelo knows it's still going to be a process, and his first summer at the helm featured modest moves - signing vets Jerryd Bayless and Gerald Henderson to provide a much-needed measure of backcourt stability, nailing a no-brainer draft - and no discernible missteps. The outline is blurry, but a team is starting to take shape.
There's still much work to be done. At some point, the Sixers need a long-term answer at point guard. At some point, they need to put together an NBA-caliber wing rotation. But for the first time in a while, it feels like there's reason for optimism. And not just the abstract sort of optimism the franchise has been peddling for years - the pot of gold at the end of the trash heap, so to speak - but genuine optimism you can see and feel.
Hinkie won't be around to witness it up close, but the seeds of his ambitious, maddening, multi-year rebuild may finally be ready to sprout.