UFC Albany predictions: Heavyweights take the Empire State
Prior to UFC Fight Night 102 in Albany, N.Y., on Friday, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on the evening's main card bouts.
Heavyweight Bout
Derrick Lewis (7-2 UFC, 16-4)
vs.
Shamil Abdurakhimov (2-1 UFC, 17-3)
Themistoklis Alexis: "The Black Beast" has a point to prove.
Derrick Lewis has won four straight and was hoping the close decision victory he earned over Roy Nelson this past summer would come with a push up the heavyweight pyramid. Instead, the 31-year-old gets his second straight booking against a little-known opponent (if you count his ill-fated date with Marcin Tybura in the Philippines) in Shamil Abdurakhimov, so expect Lewis to secure a step up in competition by keeping this out of the judges' hands.
Abdurakhimov possess sneaky speed and crisp striking, but it's hard to imagine him surviving the early typhoon of haymakers Lewis has in store for him.
THE PICK: Lewis
Alexander K. Lee: In what should be a fun heavyweight bout, Abdurakhimov is going to try to use his surprising agility to catch Lewis with some sort of unorthodox strike. He'll probably miss and that will lead to Lewis taking him down and unleashing the beast all over Abdurakhimov's skull.
Even if this becomes more of a drawn-out battle, Lewis learned a lot in his narrow win over "Big Country" and he has more ways to control the fight and score points than Abdurakhimov does. By knockout or decision, Lewis rolls on.
THE PICK: Lewis
Heavyweight Bout
Francis Ngannou (3-0 UFC, 8-1)
vs.
Anthony Hamilton (3-3 UFC, 15-5)
Lee: In six UFC appearances, Anthony Hamilton has shown flashes of the talent that had him pegged as a promising heavyweight prospect on the U.S. regional scene. At 36, time is running out for him to make good on that promise and the job doesn't get any easier against Francis Ngannou.
A hard-hitting Frenchman in the vein of Cheick Kongo, Ngannou is an absolute specimen who can take almost anyone's head off with one shot. He's not an undisciplined brawler either, so expect both he and Hamilton to take their time as they search for an opening to land their power punches.
Given his speed advantage, expect Ngannou to land first and last.
THE PICK: Ngannou
Alexis: Hamilton thrives in scraps, but he'd be foolish to goad Ngannou into one.
The 30-year-old Ngannou is the far superior athlete and owns the edge in punching power, which spells nothing but an early night for Hamilton, who doesn't possess the speed or footwork to hang with "The Predator." Ngannou has never made it past the second round in nine pro fights, and Hamilton offers little reason to believe his 10th will end differently.
THE PICK: Ngannou
Light Heavyweight Bout
Corey Anderson (5-2 UFC, 8-2)
vs.
Sean O'Connell (2-4 UFC, 17-8)
Alexis: In Sean O'Connell, Corey Anderson will essentially be facing a far less polished version of his own style, so the judges shouldn't be as divided as they were in his last outing.
"Beastin 25/8" - coming off a split decision loss to Mauricio Rua - is both a decorated wrestler and underrated boxer, while O'Connell has shown a willingness to work from the clinch when he's not swinging for a finish. Anderson's striking is good enough to put O'Connell away, but if "The Real OC" starts finding his chin, look for the Illinois native to resort to his wrestling and grind out yet another decision.
THE PICK: Anderson
Lee: In an odd quirk of matchmaking, "Beastin' 25/8" finds himself paired up with O'Connell, a fan-friendly light heavyweight with a modest 2-4 record. If there's such a thing as a "trap fight," this could be it.
Anderson's striking has improved greatly since winning "The Ultimate Fighter 19" two years ago, though a frustrating split decision loss to Shogun in his last outing could make him overeager to find a finish. He's considerably more talented than O'Connell so as long as he sticks to his wrestling and fights smart, he should cruise to a decision win.
THE PICK: Anderson
Light Heavyweight Bout
Gian Villante (4-4 UFC, 14-7)
vs.
Saparbek Safarov (0-0 UFC, 8-0)
Lee: Gian Villante fights are difficult enough to pick when they're against known properties, much less a short-notice newcomer like Saparbek Safarov.
The problem with Villante is that he has a tendency to fight dumb. Real dumb. He has solid power and good enough striking that he shouldn't have to take risks to win fights, but he is always eager to finish and that could be doubly true fighting in his home state of New York for the first time.
If Villante isn't careful, his friends and family could be left in stunned silence when their boy gets caught by a hard shot from Safarov.
THE PICK: Safarov
Alexis: Oddly enough, Villante's past dances with more methodical strikers have yielded mixed results, but luckily for him, Safarov doesn't fit that bill.
Safarov is not one to shy away from trading bombs, but his penchant for headhunting one looping haymaker at a time plays right into Villante's calculating (comparatively speaking) striking attack. As long as he can remain upright, the Long Islander should take Safarov into the later rounds - uncharted territory for the Russian - before closing the distance for his 10th career knockout.
ddTaHE PICK: Villante
| Fight | Alexis | Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov | Lewis | Lewis |
| Ngannou vs. Hamilton | Ngannou | Ngannou |
| Anderson vs. O'Connell | Anderson | Anderson |
| Villante vs. Safarov | Villante | Safarov |
| Kish vs. Yoder | Kish | Kish |
| Brown vs. Camozzi | Brown | Camozzi |
| Gigliotti vs. Meerschaert | Gigliotti | Meerschaert |
| Sanchez vs. Smith | Sanchez | Smith |
| Trator vs. Burgos | Trator | Trator |
| Perez vs. Diakiese | Diakiese | Diakiese |
| Berish vs. Janes | Janes | Janes |
| Lima vs. Aldrich | Lima | Aldrich |