Thibodeau's T-Wolves aren't ready for prime time, but they're coming
The Minnesota Timberwolves were supposed to usher in a new chapter this season, building towards becoming the NBA's next, great, sustainable force.
Instead, Minnesota enters Tuesday's nationally televised game in Chicago tied for the NBA's worst record at 6-18, well on its way to extending the Association's longest active playoff drought, and third longest postseason drought ever.
Most frustrating for Tom Thibodeau's Timberwolves, the team continues to squander big leads built in dominant first halves.
"I've talked to the team quite a bit about this. To build the type of leads that we're building, you're doing good things," Thibodeau said after another of those blown leads last week in Toronto.
"We have to take a hard look at that. The big thing for us is improvement. Playing 30 minutes of good basketball isn't enough in this league."
Tale of two halves
Look at the top seven teams in terms of first half net rating, and you'll find the league's six best teams overall, plus the Timberwolves, who outscore opponents by an average of 7.5 points per 100 possessions - three points better than the Spurs perform over a game's opening 24 minutes.
Second halves, on the other hand, remain the bane of the team's existence, as the Timberwolves have been outscored by 14.2 points per 100 possessions in the third and fourth quarters - a full point worse than the 29th-ranked 76ers.
The usual explanation is that young, inexperienced teams simply don't know how to close out games, but point guard Ricky Rubio, who, with five seasons under his belt, is the elder statesman of the team's eight most used players, doesn't buy it.
"It's an easy excuse," Rubio said. "We have to be focused. If we can do it in the beginning, we have to do it at the end."
Youth movement
Minnesota's three most utilized players, both by minutes and usage rate, are all 21 years old, and have combined for only 475 career games, but the projected development of Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine under Thibodeau was precisely why so much more was expected of the 2016-17 Wolves.
LaVine has emerged as a legitimate offensive weapon this season, Wiggins has become a dependable 3-point shooter, and Towns is averaging nearly 22 points and 11 rebounds, but the stagnation of the latter two stars might be part of the problem.
Wiggins is a better shooter, but he still doesn't impact the game in other areas the way a player with his unique athletic gifts should.
Wiggins per 100 poss. | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014-15 | 23.8 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
2015-16 | 29.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
2016-17 | 30.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
"He's always been able to score the ball, but we're going to need more from him defensively. We need more from him rebounding wise," Thibodeau said of Wiggins, before adding the Timberwolves need more from all of their players.
Like Wiggins, Towns hasn't yet made the leap to superstardom that many envisioned for him this year (though he's a lot closer and the undeniable future of the franchise), and maybe that's okay. Countless teams punt entire seasons away just for the chance at one hope-inspiring young star. Minnesota has three, and optimists might have relied too heavily on Thibodeau's prior success fast-tracking the trio's development.
Most projection models, after all, still pegged the Wolves below 40 wins entering the season.
"It takes time, but we're trying to expedite the process," Towns admitted to theScore in the Air Canada Centre's visiting locker room Thursday, before listing the differences between the young Timberwolves and the more veteran teams that continue to beat them down the stretch of games.
"Our defense falters a little bit at the end. The difference between us and them is they continue to run their game plan and execute. We sometimes get disconnected and undisciplined in second halves."
The numbers support Towns' argument:
2016-17 Timberwolves | TO Ratio | DReb% | Opponent FTA Rate |
---|---|---|---|
1st half | 14.5 (20th) | 77.8(11th) | .236 (15th) |
2nd half | 15.4 (25th) | 74.6 (24th) | .397 (29th) |
Team of mass destruction
The near nightly collapses have been maddening, but before you dismiss the Timberwolves as an overrated disappointment, it's worth remembering that the 2008-09 Thunder began 3-29, went a more respectable 20-30 over the season's final 50 games, then began a run of seven straight winning seasons and perennial title contention.
Minnesota doesn't quite have the once-in-a-generation collection of young talent Oklahoma City had accumulated by then, but with another likely lottery pick on the way, and Towns leading a trio already the envy of many, the Timberwolves aren't as far away as their record would have you believe.
For now, Towns and Co. can only dream of the possibilities.
"We have a great coaching staff that's giving us all the tools and all the weapons to go out there and be a team of mass destruction," last season's Rookie of the Year said, and he wasn't just talking about the first half.