The Lioness' den: Why Amanda Nunes will spoil Rousey's return at UFC 207
Amanda Nunes finds herself in an odd position ahead of her first bantamweight title defense.
While she'll aim to bring some stability to the title picture after previous champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate both failed to defend the strap, her challenger, the once indomitable Ronda Rousey, has far more riding on the matchup, scheduled to headline UFC 207 in Las Vegas on Friday.
Rousey may be dead set on regaining what she brandished on her waist for three years, but all the quarantined training in the world won't be enough to usurp Nunes.
Here are three reasons why:
A 1st-round storm is coming
Rousey's run of six successful title defenses is nothing to sneeze at, but none of her scalps hold a candle to the reigning champion's cage acumen.
Nunes tends to bring a first-round storm and fade as the fight reaches the later rounds, but judging by her patient, yet efficient, dismantling of Miesha Tate and Rousey's own laundry list of early finishes, odds that the pair see the championship rounds are slim to none.
Rousey is a far less refined striker, so expect The Lioness to do what she does best: stalk and pick her challenger apart with her lethal kickboxing en route to her 10th career knockout.
The company Rousey keeps
The Cali native's vaunted judo skills yielded admittedly astounding results in the early goings of her MMA career, but Rousey's growth as a striker appeared to have plateaued in her last performance.
Rousey was picked apart by decorated kickboxer Holly Holm for a frame and change before being treated to the knockout heard 'round the world at UFC 193, and while the former champ has gone to great lengths to regain her former glory - from eluding the media to training in isolation - how much could she have possibly improved under the tutelage of much-maligned coach Edmond Tarverdyan?
The judoka has made strides in the boxing department thanks to Tarverdyan, but he's been labeled a glorified pad man for a reason. Rousey's standup chops may have been enough for Bethe Correia, but odds are they still aren't sharp enough to hang with a lethal Muay Thai artist in Nunes. Simply put, she'll continue to be exposed by strikers of the champ's caliber as long as she remains shackled to the one-trick pony Tarverdyan. Just ask once-promising heavyweight Travis Browne, who's gone a miserable 2-3 since joining the coach's Glendale Fight Club.
Infallibility is a fickle friend
Had Rousey gone a closely contested five rounds with Holm, the UFC's comeback pitch might be easier to buy. Instead, she was handed a brutal fate that's played on an endless loop in the minds of MMA die-hards for 13 months, and she may not be able to recover.
Take Renan Barao as an example. The Brazilian mounted a nine-year unbeaten run and handily cleaned out the UFC's bantamweight division until TJ Dillashaw put his dominant ways to an end at UFC 173. Barao was finished in the fifth round, then in the fourth when the pair met again 14 months later. He's since appeared to be a shell of his former self in an attempted reinvention at featherweight, prompting many to wonder whether he can regain his championship form.
Rousey was on a record-setting run of her own before Holm knocked her out cold in November of last year, and the aftermath, as well as the parallels between her career path and Barao's, don't bode well for her chances of besting Nunes. The 29-year-old admitted to contemplating suicide following the loss, and reportedly had to be consoled after her staredown with Nunes at the UFC 205 weigh-ins last month.
The champ, on the other hand, is free of such burdens, and has largely been kept out of the spotlight and its accompanying scrutiny. Like Rousey, Nunes was finished in her last loss - a third-round TKO at the hands of Cat Zingano - but she's won four straight and the division title since, and Rousey is facing far too many hurdles - both in and outside the Octagon - to put an end to The Lioness' run.
Related - Never gone: Why Ronda Rousey will become champion again at UFC 207