UFC Phoenix predictions: Can 'The Prodigy' rise again?

Prior to UFC Fight Night 103 in Phoenix on Sunday, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on the evening's main-card fights.

Featherweight Bout

Yair Rodriguez (5-0 UFC, 9-1)
vs.
BJ Penn (12-9-2 UFC, 16-10-2)

Themistoklis Alexis: He may be meeting a man who hasn't fought in over two years and hasn't won in six, but Yair Rodriguez would be foolish to overlook BJ Penn's vaunted ground game.

The high-flying 24-year-old's spinning techniques and sheer athleticism have earned him a W in all five of his UFC contests, but his last showing against Alex Caceres indicated he still has a lot of growing up to do. Expect "El Pantera" to flash what he learned under master tactician Greg Jackson and submit a calculated performance against the 38-year-old Penn, keeping the fight upright and the showmanship to a minimum while he picks "The Prodigy" apart from range for his 10th pro victory.

THE PICK: Rodriguez

Alexander K. Lee: It's hard to imagine a scenario where the 38-year-old Penn can keep up with an opponent 14 years his junior.

But let's do it anyway.

As exciting a prospect as "El Pantera" may be, he is still extraordinarily raw, and that was evident in his last fight against Caceres. Rodriguez threw a wild array of spinning techniques, with little of consequence actually landing, and walked out with an underwhelming split-decision win.

In Penn's last three fights, he was clowned by Nick Diaz, Rory MacDonald, and Frankie Edgar, three elite strikers. Rodriguez is not on that level. If he tries any of his fancy stuff with Penn, he can expect to be taken down and then jiu-jitsu'd to death.

This is happening.

THE PICK: Penn

Lightweight Bout

Joe Lauzon (13-9 UFC, 26-12)
vs.
Marcin Held (0-1 UFC, 22-5)

Lee: Marcin Held is a gifted ground fighter and it's time for him to reward the UFC's faith in him.

In his Octagon debut, the 24-year-old struggled to keep up with the non-stop energy of veteran Diego Sanchez, and now he's matched up with another lightweight lifer in Joe Lauzon. Fortunately for Held, Lauzon is a risk-taker when it comes to submission fighting and that will play right into Held's hands.

"J-Lau" hasn't tapped out of a contest in over six years, but Held is the man to break that streak.

THE PICK: Held

Alexis: The young Held's UFC initiation was a rough one, and the going won't get any easier against the crafty, haphazard Lauzon.

J-Lau's fights tend to end early, win or lose, and expect that trend to continue when he gives his fellow jiu-jitsu expert a second dose of Octagon comeuppance. Look for the 32-year-old to overwhelm the ever-game Bellator import with some early flurries before scoring his first tapout in over four years in the ensuing chaos.

THE PICK: Lauzon

Welterweight Bout

Court McGee (7-4 UFC, 18-5)
vs.
Ben Saunders (7-4 UFC, 20-7-2)

Alexis: Two things are certain when Court McGee enters the Octagon: The proceedings will leave much to be desired in terms of fireworks and the winner will be decided by the judges.

That said, McGee's ugly style has largely worked in his favor through his near-dozen bouts in the UFC, and expect him to replicate the formula against the lanky Ben Saunders. The Utah native should get the best of the striking exchanges and grind Saunders against the cage if things get hairy on the feet en route to his sixth straight win by decision.

THE PICK: McGee

Lee: McGee's fighting style would best be described as "pitter patter, let's get at 'er." He simply gets it done in the Octagon through sheer grit and determination, even if no one will ever mistake his punching power for Mike Tyson's.

The length of Saunders won't be an issue for McGee, who excels at neutralizing his opponents' offense and maintaining non-stop pressure. He'll have to watch out for submissions, but if he keeps things on the feet where he's comfortable, he'll cruise to a win on points.

THE PICK: McGee

Flyweight Bout

John Moraga (5-4 UFC, 16-5)
vs.
Sergio Pettis (5-2 UFC, 14-2)

Lee: John Moraga is entering this fight on short notice with nothing to lose, which is a good thing, because he's probably going to lose.

The surging Sergio Pettis is finally starting to put the pieces together and it looks like he's poised for a serious run at 125 pounds. All that's missing from his resume is a convincing UFC finish, and he should be able to earn one against the slumping Moraga. Look for Pettis to push the pace late in the fight and pick up a third-round TKO.

THE PICK: Pettis

Alexis: In a clash between a pair of flyweights headed in opposite directions, the one trending upward will get his hand raised.

Pettis and Moraga have won and lost two straight, respectively, and with the latter stepping in for Jussier Formiga on short notice, there's little reason to believe the 23-year-old Milwaukee native won't extend his win streak to three. Look for Pettis to pick Moraga apart on the feet en route to yet another victory by unanimous decision - his sixth in the UFC.

THE PICK: Pettis

Related - UFC Phoenix preview: 'El Pantera' goes on the hunt for a legend