Why Gallo might be a better deadline fit than 'Melo
It's officially deadline month! To celebrate, theScore's NBA editors will be asking and answering the questions that matter leading up to Feb. 23.
There are few bigger names associated with the Feb. 23 trade deadline than Carmelo Anthony, but the biggest name doesn't always translate to the best decision for your team, especially when the player in question has Melo's warts.
So here's a secret: If your team is interested in Anthony - an offensively talented, defensively limited forward - chances are, Danilo Gallinari will do just fine satisfying your needs. And based on what Magic fans claim Orlando general manager Rob Hennigan recently told them, he's just as available.
Before we go further, there are some undeniable truths worth mentioning. First and foremost, no one's comparing the two players' accomplishments. Though his offensive effectiveness has long been overblown, Anthony is a future Hall of Famer. Gallinari is unlikely to ever be an All-Star.
Secondly, there is value in Anthony's superior ability in isolation, particularly in situations when teams need a player to create something out of nothing.
Lastly, in an environment where Banana Boat buddies LeBron James or Chris Paul could rein him in, the ideal version of 'Melo as a non-primary option in a small-ball lineup, where he can utilize his catch-and-shoot gifts, could be exquisite. But the Cavs and Clippers wisely won't give up key cogs for his services, and any other teams with Anthony on their mind would be unlikely to convince the nine-time All-Star to adapt to a lesser role.
Gallinari's not going to sell many extra tickets or capture the casual fan's imagination, but if you're a Melo-interested contender looking for an offensive boost, you're better off calling Denver than you are calling New York, where you'll have to convince Anthony to both waive his no-trade clause and be the player he's refused to become up to this point.
Better offensive fit
The 2016-17 season represents Anthony's lowest usage campaign in 12 years, and yet he's still using 29.7 percent of the Knicks' possessions - good for 13th overall, one spot ahead of LeBron. Anthony may be too stubborn for a background role, and no longer capable of scoring as efficiently as you'd like him to in a primary role. That's a problem for contenders who probably already have at least one offensive leader, if not more.
Gallinari, on the other hand, may represent the best of both worlds.
The 28-year-old has graciously and effectively adapted to a lesser workload this season, as the Nuggets make an unlikely charge for a Western Conference playoff spot, while proving himself a capable higher-usage scorer in recent years.
Of the nine Nuggets qualified for the minutes leaderboard, Gallinari's usage rate of 19.4 percent ranks seventh, but he's making the most of those limited possessions. The 6-foot-10 Italian is averaging 17.2 points on an effective field goal percentage of 51.1 (which would match Anthony's career high) and a true shooting percentage of 60.3. Nine of the other 10 players who can boast similar offensive standards this season are All-Stars.
Gallo's not going to be the No. 1 nightly option on a contender, and he appears to understand that, but should a team need its No. 2 or No. 3 to pick up the offensive slack from time to time, they could do a lot worse than The Rooster.
Last season, Gallinari posted a career-high usage rate of 23 percent (to put that in perspective, Hassan Whiteside is currently using 23 percent of Heat possessions), and though his shooting numbers dipped slightly, he was still able to score efficiently, thanks in large part to his elite, foul-drawing ability.
2015-16: 19+PPG/20+USG%/58+TS% | FTA per FGA |
---|---|
Danilo Gallinari | .617 |
James Harden | .518 |
Kevin Durant | .361 |
LeBron James | .347 |
Kawhi Leonard | .306 |
Stephen Curry | .250 |
Klay Thompson | .159 |
Modernized arsenal
In addition to being much more effective than Anthony at getting free points from the charity stripe - which also has other benefits, like controlling the pace and allowing your team's defense to start from a set position - Gallinari's attack is more in line with modern times.
2016-17 | % of FGA that are 3s | % of FGA that are long 2s | 3P% |
---|---|---|---|
Gallinari | 41.1 | 20.0 | 38.1 |
Anthony | 29.5 | 29.4 | 35.6 |
2016-17 | Avg Touch Time | Dribbles Per Touch | Passes Per Touch |
---|---|---|---|
Gallinari | 2.28 seconds | 1.29 | 0.64 |
Anthony | 2.83 seconds | 1.77 | 0.58 |
Again, Anthony is the more efficient isolation scorer and catch-and-shoot performer. But the caveat with the former is that a ready-to-win contender is less likely to be in need of a ball-stopping, iso-scoring, No. 1 option. The catch with the latter is that while Anthony would seemingly thrive in a catch-and-shoot environment as a less ball dominant option, he'd be unlikely to accept such an assignment.
All things considered, it's a lot easier to integrate the type of offensive weapon Gallinari has become - especially in the middle of a season - than it is to accommodate the player we know Anthony would still want to be for at least 28 of 30 teams.
He'll play some defense
If you're considering trading for 'Melo, defense isn't top of mind, but what if the better fitting offensive piece was also less of a defensive liability?
Gallinari is far from a standout defender, but he's at least proven capable, at times, on that end of the floor.
According to NBA.com, opponents shoot 3.6 percent worse than their average when guarded by Gallinari, while shooting 0.7 percent better against Anthony. Gallinari's Defensive Real Plus-Minus of minus-0.48 ranks 56th out of 80 small forwards. Anthony's DRPM of minus-1.84 ranks 74th. Most damning, the Nuggets' worst-ranked defense gets 1.7 points per 100 possessions stingier with Gallinari on the court. The Knicks, on the other hand, defend like a top-five team with Anthony on the bench (102.5 defensive rating) and defend worse than the Nuggets (111) with 'Melo on the court.
The contracts
Given Gallinari's injury history, it's safe to assume he'll opt out of his $16.1 million, 2017-18 player option in search of a multiyear deal, making him a likely unrestricted free agent. That means acquiring him comes with the risk of forfeiting assets for a rental. It also means that there's less long-term risk involved, and that the Nuggets might be willing to part with him for a modest package, rather than risk losing him for nothing.
Anthony, on the other end, is set to earn more than $26 million next season, with a 2018-19 (early termination) option worth more than $27.9 million, which given the tepid 2017 trade market for him, might not be completely out of play. Best case scenario, you're stuck paying Anthony $26 million next year. Worst case, it's $54 million over two years. Either way, there's little value to be found.
And if you do want to play the long game with any potential deadline acquisition, while both players have dealt with injury issues over the last three years, Gallinari is more than four years younger, and has logged 23,000 less minutes.
There are myriad reasons why a mid-season move for Gallo makes more sense than a mid-season move for Melo, and in the offensive areas Anthony's still superior in, the gap between him and other offensively gifted, defensively limited players like Gallinari simply isn't wide enough to mitigate the additional risk and headache associated with acquiring him.