30 X-factors for the 2017 MLB season

As the long-awaited dopamine flood of another Opening Day looms, there are certain outcomes we can confidently project for the 2017 season; the Los Angeles Dodgers being good, for instance, or Mike Trout putting up another historic year.

In baseball, though, where ruthless gusts of randomness corrupt even the soundest predictive models, more often that not, it's hard to predict stuff. (Hell, there's an entire Twitter account devoted to the notion that this wonderful game, even now, in an era of unprecedented analysis, remains unfailingly unpredictable.) Sometimes, the can't-miss prospect misses. Sometimes, the veteran you know will bounce back doesn't. That's the beauty of it, right?

With that in mind, let's look at the so-called 30 X-factors for the 2017 campaign, each team's broadest-range-of-performance-outcomes dude; the potential stud or dud whose success or failures could have a significant impact on how his club fares.

NL East X-factor: Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets

The Mets gave Yoenis Cespedes $110 million this winter to remain in that dicey part of the win curve where every marginal win or loss is hugely important. How the Dark Knight rises, then, so to speak, after missing most of 2016 with thoracic outlet syndrome has massive implications for a team that just barely snuck into the playoffs in 2016, earning the second wild-card berth by virtue, largely, of a 17-10 run in September. If Harvey rediscovers his pre-surgery form, New York is likely headed back to the postseason, maybe even a division title, but if he flounders, the Mets are probably golfing in October.

NL Central X-factor: Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

In all likelihood, the Cubs are going to park themselves atop the NL Central standings for the next half-decade, but if the Cardinals do find themselves contending for the division in September, it'll be because Wacha, an All-Star in 2015, rebounded after stumbling to career-worsts in ERA (5.09), WHIP (1.48), FIP (3.91), line-drive percentage (23.9), and whiff rate (8.1 percent) last year.

NL West X-factor: Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants

The Giants, perennial runners-up in the NL West, must have some proprietary metric that looks kindly on Cain, because the 32-year-old seems destined for that final rotation spot even though it's been four full seasons since he was last effective and healthy. It sure feels like any upside has long since vanished, but if Cain can approximate the 3.18 ERA (3.58 FIP; .230 opponents' batting average) he crafted from 2007 through 2012, with their bullpen reinforced, the Giants can actually compete with the Dodgers for a division title instead of having to settle for their third wild-card berth in the last four seasons.

AL East X-factor: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox

Every Affleck, Damon, and Wahlberg is ready to hand the Red Sox a second straight division title, but with David Ortiz off playing bocce with geriatrics in Boca, it's not exactly a foregone conclusion that Boston's lineup - the best in baseball in 2016 - is going to bash everyone's brains in again. Last year, after all, the Red Sox received career years from Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Chris Young, and even Sandy Leon. It's fair to expect some regression from one or more of those guys, just as it's fair to wonder if Benintendi, the consensus top prospect in baseball, struggles to adjust to a vindictive league that watched the kid hit .295/.359/.476 (117 OPS+) over 34 games in 2016. A rough first full season from Benintendi may not matter all that much if the rest of Boston's offense continues to rake, but if they don't, things could get really interesting in the AL East.

AL Central X-factor: Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals

The Royals' current competitive window, which yielded two American League pennants and a World Series championship, is closing after this season. Frankly, it may be closed already, but nobody told Dayton Moore, who signed Brandon Moss, Travis Wood, and Jason Hammel this winter even after watching his club go 81-81 with a -37 run differential last year. Those additions didn't move the needle much, as the Royals are still projected to finish below .500, but a bounceback from franchise icon Alex Gordon - who averaged nearly 5.0 WAR per year from 2011 through 2015 before eking out a career-worst .312 OBP and 85 wRC+ last season - could put Kansas City in contention for a wild-card berth.

AL West X-factor: Jurickson Profar, IF/OF, Texas Rangers

It's not clear exactly where the Rangers are going to play Profar in 2017, but the resilient 24-year-old - once considered the game's top prospect - may be the key to their success nonetheless. Profar, who spent nearly two years recovering from shoulder problems before returning to the majors in 2016, hasn't put up impressive numbers over three partial seasons in the big leagues, but the versatile Curacao native owns an .808 in the minors - almost always playing against older competition - and can play pretty much every position. If Profar can be the Rangers' version of Javier Baez, playing strong defense and holding his own, offensively, while regularly spelling veterans like Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mike Napoli, the marginal gains should make the Rangers a division contender.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)