What can we expect from 32-year-old Adrian Peterson?
Adrian Peterson is celebrating his 32nd birthday Tuesday, marking a possible denouement to the peak of his career.
Peterson's been on the national radar since emerging as the nation's consensus top high school recruit of 2004, and exceeded the hype with a prodigious collegiate career at Oklahoma. Since being selected seventh overall in the 2007 NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings, Peterson's been the standard-bearer for all incoming running backs.
While Peterson prepares to find a new team this spring, we examine what may lie ahead for the seven-time Pro Bowler.
Is there a precedent for Peterson going forward?
Peterson is an exceptional physical talent, as evidenced by his 2012 MVP campaign, less than a year removed from a torn ACL and MCL. It may be overly simplistic to write Peterson off merely because he's over 30 and has been subject to a herculean workload over his 10 professional seasons.
Here is the list of players post-merger that have topped 1,000 yards during or after their age-32 seasons:
Player | Season | Age | Rushing Yards | TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|
John Riggins | 1983 | 34 | 1347 | 24 |
Walter Payton | 1986 | 32 | 1333 | 8 |
John Riggins | 1984 | 35 | 1239 | 14 |
Ricky Williams | 2009 | 32 | 1121 | 11 |
Frank Gore | 2016 | 33 | 1025 | 4 |
Ottis Anderson | 1989 | 32 | 1023 | 14 |
Emmitt Smith | 2001 | 32 | 1021 | 3 |
Mike Anderson | 2005 | 32 | 1014 | 12 |
Franco Harris | 1983 | 33 | 1007 | 5 |
James Brooks | 1990 | 32 | 1004 | 5 |
With due respect, Mike Anderson, Ottis Anderson, James Brooks, and Ricky Williams simply aren't anywhere close to Peterson's caliber. The quartet ought to be lauded for their excellent seasons, but none of them were consistently dominant like Peterson and therefore are eliminated from consideration.
John Riggins would represent a best-case scenario for Peterson, but the player comparison doesn't hold up upon further examination. Although Riggins authored two of the best age-32-plus seasons and was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1992, his workload before turning 29 pales in comparison to Peterson's. Riggins topped the 300-carry mark for the first time during his 1983 campaign, and while his bruising style shares some similarities with Peterson, the totality of his career doesn't match up.
Franco Harris earned nine consecutive Pro Bowl selections and was the hallmark of consistency during the 1970s. Harris certainly sports the pedigree to warrant a comparison, but he only topped the 300-carry barometer twice, and excelled during an era that holds few similarities to Peterson's.
This leaves Walter Payton and Emmitt Smith as Peterson's lone historical contemporaries and though his peer Frank Gore should be recognized for an excellent 2016 campaign, it's unlikely the five-time Pro Bowler dislodges Peterson as the preeminent back of the past decade.
Peterson vs. the all-time greats
Comparing Peterson's career to Smith's and Payton's is a compliment of the highest order in its own right. Due to their careers being the closest to mirroring Peterson's, it's worth examining how both Hall of Fame backs fared leading up to their age-32 season.
Walter Payton
Year | Attempts | Rushing Yards | TDs |
---|---|---|---|
1975 | 196 | 679 | 7 |
1976 | 311 | 1390 | 13 |
1977 | 339 | 1852 | 14 |
1978 | 333 | 1395 | 11 |
1979 | 369 | 1610 | 14 |
1980 | 317 | 1460 | 6 |
1981 | 339 | 1222 | 6 |
1982 | 148 | 596 | 1 |
1983 | 314 | 1421 | 6 |
1984 | 381 | 1684 | 11 |
1985 | 324 | 1551 | 9 |
Total | 3371 | 14860 | 89 |
Emmitt Smith
Year | Attempts | Rushing Yards | TDs |
---|---|---|---|
1990 | 241 | 937 | 11 |
1991 | 365 | 1563 | 12 |
1992 | 373 | 1713 | 18 |
1993 | 283 | 1486 | 9 |
1994 | 368 | 1484 | 21 |
1995 | 377 | 1773 | 25 |
1996 | 327 | 1204 | 12 |
1997 | 261 | 1074 | 4 |
1998 | 319 | 1332 | 13 |
1999 | 329 | 1397 | 11 |
2000 | 294 | 1203 | 9 |
Total | 3537 | 15166 | 145 |
Adrian Peterson
Year | Attempts | Rushing Yards | TDs |
---|---|---|---|
2007 | 238 | 1341 | 12 |
2008 | 363 | 1760 | 10 |
2009 | 314 | 1383 | 18 |
2010 | 283 | 1298 | 12 |
2011 | 208 | 970 | 12 |
2012 | 348 | 2097 | 12 |
2013 | 279 | 1266 | 10 |
2014 | 21 | 75 | 0 |
2015 | 327 | 1485 | 11 |
2016 | 37 | 72 | 0 |
Total | 2418 | 11747 | 97 |
Payton's and Smith's workload, consistency, and relative health stand out immediately in comparison to Peterson, with the former topping the 300-carry mark nine times. Peterson's 2015 campaign holds its own against the latter stages of Payton's and Smith's careers, but it's evident that his two low-carry seasons in 2014 (on commissioner's exempt list while dealing with child abuse allegations) and 2016 (injured) hold him back from being truly considered in the same tier as the two all-time greats. The mercurial highs of Peterson's career don't match Smith's, save for the 2012 season, nor does it replicate the brute repetition of Payton's canon.
Will Peterson's relatively low workload in recent years benefit or hurt him?
Peterson's relatively lithe workload over the past three seasons makes him a difficult player to forecast ahead of 2017. At this juncture, Peterson isn't anywhere close to the 3,000-carry mark for his career, and sporting a truly unique combination of power and field vision, it's eminently possible he comes back rejuvenated this fall. It's never been wise to bet against Peterson throughout his career, and few would be surprised if he's contending for his fourth career rushing title.
Conversely, it could be argued that Peterson's relative inactivity is indicative of a player on the decline. The market hasn't reacted whatsoever and there's a notion that league personnel believe that he's floating above replacement level at this point. Peterson will be surely donning a gold jacket one day, but he remains a confounding player to project for the next stage of his career.
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