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Strong Sides: Should bad teams tank in hopes of landing the No. 1 pick?

Geoff Burke / USA TODAY Sports

Strong Sides is a series where NFL editors David P. Woods and Michael Amato debate topics from around the league.

We are at that point in the season where it's clear that several teams are already looking forward to next year. For squads like the Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders, the only part of the standings they'll be concerned with is the bottom and how it relates to their draft position. 

Should bad teams tank in hopes of landing the No. 1 pick?

Woods: It's never made any sense that NFL teams with no hope of reaching the playoffs don't tank their season for the No. 1 draft pick, NBA-style. The NFL, of all major North American sports leagues, is the perfect league for it because there's no draft lottery. 

Amato: There may be opportunity to do it, but it's more difficult than it sounds. Without guaranteed contracts, players can't afford to mail it in or they will be out of a job. The same goes for coaches. No one wants to get labeled as being part of a tank job when they are trying to land with other teams down the line. 

Woods: The Tennessee Titans and, to a lesser extent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are two perfect test cases that can disprove those arguments. They both have a first-year coach who almost certainly won't be fired. They both desperately need a franchise quarterback like Marcus Mariota. All it would take is ownership, the front office and coaching staff to get on the same page and decide to maximize future assets. Bench your starters in the name of evaluating young talent and the rest will take care of itself. The backup players can still try their hardest to win and not damage their future earning potential, but the losses will pile up as intended.

Amato: Still, there are no guarantees. Mariota could easily pull a John Elway or Eli Manning and refuse to go to the Titans or Buccaneers given the shape they are in. Then you've thrown away a season without landing the player you want. Besides, as important as franchise quarterbacks are, one player doesn't make as big a difference in the NFL as he does in the NBA. 

Woods: There are no guarantees, but owning the first overall pick is objectively better than owning the No. 3 or No. 5 pick because it gives a team more and better options. Finding a franchise quarterback isn't easy, but it's a lot easier when no other team is in your way. The Titans and Buccaneers aren't going anywhere this season. Every game they win from this point on will only serve to hinder their return to success. It would be a big mistake for ownership not to realize this and demand that the team starts playing for 2015 today. That means tanking.

Amato: Well, if one of those teams were to tank, it would likely be the first and last time. The NFL wouldn't stand for that and would immediately institute a draft lottery for the following season. Not to mention the important role betting and fantasy football play in the league's popularity. Having teams try to influence the results of games in a negative way simply wouldn't fly. 

Woods: I think a draft lottery is inevitable regardless of whether a team tanks because it would be a TV ratings bonanza. Why not be the team that inspires the rule change? The current system is rife for exploitation. Lose all your games and you are guaranteed the top pick in the draft. We see NBA teams tank all the time and all they get in return is a higher percentage shot at a franchise-changing pick. I'm stunned that we haven't seen an NFL try it yet - though perhaps we did and we didn't realize it with the 2011 Colts. There's a way to tank and maintain some dignity. Besides, all will be forgiven when the No. 1 pick is announced.

Amato: There's other factors to consider here. The league clearly wants fans in the stands as evidenced by its opposition to the FCC removing the blackout rule. If a team starts to tank with nine or 10 games left, how will that hurt attendance? Television ratings? Will it cost them sponsors? 

Woods: Yes, yes and no. I doubt many fans would turn in to see a tanking team play, but they would all return next season with a No. 1 pick at quarterback. Same with sponsors. That's the whole idea - it's the best move for the long-term health of the franchise. Would you rather be the Bills, a team without a franchise quarterback for decades because they're never quite bad enough to earn the No. 1 pick, or the Panthers/Colts, two teams that bottomed out and found cornerstone players in the draft?

Amato: You might want to ask the general managers that drafted Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr and Tim Couch with the first overall pick that question. Drafting at any position is a crapshoot and there have been more busts at No. 1 than there have been success stories. Throwing away a season for an uncertain prospect could do more harm than good. 

Woods: Busts are inevitable and inherently unpredictable. What we can say with certainty is that the best place to find franchise-altering quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton is at the top of the draft, and that tanking guarantees you the top pick. For hopeless teams, the answer is clear: just lose, baby.

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