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NFL Week 8 Betting Preview: Grab the points with the Bears

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8 has arrived.

After the train wreck that was Week 6, I went 4-3 ATS with my recommended wagers in Week 7. Nothing special, but a profit nonetheless. If you played all of my pool plays in the table at the end of the article, you would have had a pretty solid Sunday, going 9-4 ATS. This has been a recurring theme this season, with pool plays significantly outperforming recommended wagers. It really makes me wonder if I should be increasing volume, but for now, I’ll just keep doing what I’ve been doing and hope to grind out winning weeks.

I’m not in love with this week’s NFL card. Aside from a few games that stand out, it took me right up until the time of this writing to finalize my plays. I went back and forth on a number of games, and hopefully I don’t regret the decisions that I made.

Once again, I’ve linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats, and other items of note for each game. The Monday Night Football pick will once again be included in my recap piece Monday, and that will be the case for the remainder of the season.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 8.

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons

Friday Consensus Line: Lions -3.5, total of 46.5

The Pick: Atlanta can’t find a way to win on the road in the States, so maybe a trip to London will change their luck. Ummm, nope. As mentioned in my Week 7 recap, the Falcons are a terrible football team, and for some reason, the public has yet to realize this. Atlanta’s offensive line has being decimated by injuries, and that’s led to quarterback Matt Ryan being under constant duress. That seems like it would pose a major problem against arguably the best defensive line in the league. Even if Calvin Johnson, and, to a lesser extent, Reggie Bush aren’t able to suit up for the Lions, they should still be able to move the ball on a deplorable Falcons defense.

The Falcons have won just one of their last 12 games outside of the Georgia Dome. In fact, they’ve lost their last five road games by double digits. And to make matters worse, they’ve lost their last four games by a combined 59 points, with matchups against the Vikings (2-5), Bears (3-4) and Giants (3-4) coming prior to last week’s loss to the Ravens. You might want to consider sleeping in and avoiding an early-morning beatdown. Lions 31, Falcons 13

The Wager: This spread is insanely low. Sure, this game is being played on a neutral field, but Detroit is far superior to Atlanta this season. The Lions aren’t imploding on a weekly basis like they were a season ago and I’ll gladly side with a Detroit defense that’s held five of their seven opponents to less than 17 points this season. Lions -3.5 (widely available)

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday Consensus Line: Bucs -2.5 -115, total of 42.5

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings

The Pick: What happens when a garbage team comes off a bye week? Well, as the saying goes, you can’t polish a turd. Tampa Bay already has one of the league’s worst talent pools, and now they have one of the league’s worst head coaches in Lovie Smith. Smith could have been fired DURING a handful of games already this season, so I have trouble believing an additional week of preparation will really help the Bucs in terms of game-planning. Minnesota is still a lot better than people think because they boast a solid defense. The Vikings almost pulled out a victory in Buffalo last week, which is actually a lot harder than it sounds.

Minnesota has a weak offensive line and a young quarterback that’s prone to mistakes, but these are issues that also plague the Bucs, to a more severe extent. The Vikings have the better coaching staff, and they don’t have a defense that’s on pace to give up the most points in NFL history. That’s enough for me. Vikings 17, Bucs 16

The Wager: “The Bucs” and “favored” should never be used in the same sentence unless that sentence reads “The Bucs should never be favored”. I think the expectation is that Tampa can turn things around after a week off, but I have no faith in a team that’s already lost to Derek Anderson, Austin Davis and Joe Flacco at home this season. I’m taking the points. Vikings +3 -115 (Sportsbook) [I will only play the Vikings at +3, pass at +2.5]

Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -6, total of 50.5

The Pick: Everyone’s wondering what’s wrong with the Bears after last week’s home loss to the Dolphins. I’ll tell you what’s wrong with the Bears - they didn’t play that game on the road. Chicago has already won three of their four games away from home, with the lone loss being in Carolina, where they blew a two-touchdown lead. This is what the Bears do. Now there are reports of a rift between Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, which is almost certainly blown out of proportion. We’ll see if those reports still exist after Chicago tears up New England’s porous defense, which will be without Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones this week.

New England is still extremely overvalued after their primetime beatdown of the Bengals, but that win looks a lot less impressive now that Cincinnati is losing to everybody. The Pats have struggled against Alex Smith, Kyle Orton and Geno Smith in recent weeks, so I don’t put much confidence in their ability to slow down Jay Cutler, whose career numbers after a terrible game are elite. New England’s offense will move the ball, but they still have to play defense too. Upset alert. Bears 30, Patriots 27

The Wager: Not to beat a dead horse or anything, but outside of New England’s destruction of Cincinnati (in arguably one of the best spots of the season), what have the Patriots done to deserve this price tag? New England is on extra rest but that’s not going to miraculously bring Mayo and Jones back onto the field to play defense. Simply too many points to pass up on here. Bears +6 (widely available) [this line could rise back up to 6.5 or 7, but I’m comfortable taking any line of 4.5 or more]

St. Louis Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs

Friday Consensus Line: Chiefs -7 -115, total of 44

The Pick: Both teams are coming off big divisional wins, which means neither are in a very favorable spot this week. The difference is that Kansas City’s win in San Diego last week wasn’t a complete fluke. The Rams upset of the Seahawks was monumental, but they were outgained by 188 yards in that contest and only won because of stellar special teams play. Kansas City will feed the ball to Jamaal Charles and he’ll rip off big gain after big gain against a Rams run defense that gives up 4.8 yards per carry. When the Chiefs' running game is working, their passing game is working, as Alex Smith is one of the best game managers in the league.

The Rams just don’t have the type of defense that equates to success on the road in this league, with their weak secondary, complete lack of a pass rush and awful run defense. Austin Davis has played well on the road this season, but I’m convinced even I could play well on the road against the Bucs and Eagles' defenses. Kansas City will prove to be a much more daunting task, and I’m not sure the Rams can keep up. Chiefs 28, Rams 13

The Wager: All my inclinations are telling me the Chiefs should make easy work of the Rams, but there are a couple of things keeping me off of this one. Firstly, and most importantly, I just don’t like the number. The Chiefs were laying six points in last week’s advanced lines, but that’s since jumped through the key number of seven at most spots, killing the value in the number. I’m also not sure how Kansas City will react following their road victory over a big divisional rival. Pass [I personally played Chiefs -6 at open, but can’t advocate a play at -7 or higher. If the number drops below 7, take it.]

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Friday Consensus Line: Seahawks -5, total of 44.5

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

The Pick: It’s still a little early to be talking about the demise of the Seahawks. Seattle still boasts great numbers on both sides of the ball despite their average 3-3 record. The Seahawks should be able to exploit a Panthers defense that has been absolutely abysmal this season, yielding at least 37 points in four of their last five contests. The suspension of Greg Hardy is really hurting the Panthers, as their pass rush is basically non-existent right now. On paper, this seems like a game in which Seattle should get back on track.

But games aren’t played on paper. One thing is for certain: Seattle is going to get the best effort out of every team they play this season. The defending Super Bowl Champions are hated around the league, so opposing teams tend to play harder against them. Seattle also faces the dubious task of playing their second straight road game after traveling across the country, which is a less than optimal situation. Seattle went to Carolina last season and emerged victorious in a close affair. I think a similar outcome awaits this season, except with more points. Seahawks 27, Panthers 24

The Wager: This could very well be the game that the Seahawks get back on track, but I’m really not interested in laying more than a field goal with Seattle on the road right now. This is one of the less appealing games on this week’s card in my eyes. Pass

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Friday Consensus Line: Jets -3, total of 40.5

The Pick: The Jets may be the best 1-6 team in the history of football. I’m not joking. It’s hard to blame New York for its current state after facing Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady this season. I don’t know about you, but I don’t put Kyle Orton in that same echelon of quarterbacks. The Jets should be able to put the clamps down on the Bills, especially with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller out of the lineup with injuries.

New York added Percy Harvin in a trade with the Seahawks this week, and that will immediately improve their special teams at the very minimum. The Jets will probably have a couple of gadget plays dialed up for their new receiver as well. Geno Smith played a strong game in New England last Thursday in which he clearly placed an emphasis on protecting the ball. If Smith can duplicate that performance this week, the Jets should emerge victorious. Jets 19, Bills 16

The Wager: In my recap last week, I mentioned that you shouldn’t lay points with bad teams. That’s precisely the case here. Everything points to a New York victory, but I’ve said that on at least three other occasions this season, and they’ve found a way to continuously blow it. Pass

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Friday Consensus Line: Dolphins -6, total of 42.5

The Pick: The Jaguars finally got their first victory of the season last week and it’s hard to ignore the improvement of this squad in recent weeks. Blake Bortles is still playing like a rookie, with 12 turnovers in his four starts this season, but the Jags' defense is finally starting to play like an NFL-caliber defense. Jacksonville’s last two home games have seen their opponents score just 6 and 17 points, with one of the touchdowns in that 17-point game coming on a pick-six. Ryan Tannehill has elevated his game since nearly being benched by Joe Philbin, but he’s still a mediocre quarterback at best.

The Jags have held opponents to just 3.0 yards per carry over their last three contests as well, and that could pose problems for the Dolphins, who are very reliant on their running game. Buffalo shut down Miami’s rushing attack back in Week 2, and that ended in a lopsided loss for the Dolphins. At the end of the day, though, it’s hard to ignore the talent gap between these two teams. Jacksonville is playing better but they’re still not good, and that gives the Dolphins the upper hand on the road. Dolphins 20, Jaguars 17

The Wager: Both of these teams are in spots where I’d usually bet against them. Miami in a favorite role on the road is just asking for trouble (although they did smoke the Raiders in London earlier this year), and the Jaguars are coming off of a victory as a home underdog - a notoriously terrible situation over the years. I’d say Jacksonville would make a good teaser play, but that would also be a reach. Pass

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Friday Consensus Line: Texans -3 -115, total of 42

Zach Mettenberger, QB, Titans

The Pick: Houston completely unraveled on Monday Night Football, and now have to travel on a short week to take on a rookie quarterback they haven’t seen before. That’s not an ideal situation. I’m very familiar with Zach Mettenberger from his time at LSU, and got to watch him in a couple of preseason games earlier this year. Mettenberger is an upgrade over "Checkdown" Charlie Whitehurst, but he forces a lot of passes into coverage, and that’s not exactly a recipe for success at the NFL level.

Fortunately, the quarterback on the other side is known more for his turnovers than my local bakery. Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, but he plays more like he went to clown college, displaying horrible decision-making game after game (10 turnovers in six games). The Titans have a below-average run defense, which should allow for Arian Foster to get on track, but Fitzpatrick will inevitably make a big mistake to keep things interesting. Prior to last week’s game against Pittsburgh, the Texans had been outgained in every single contest this season. I think they’re in tough on a short week against a team that will be playing hard with their rookie quarterback under center. Titans 20, Texans 17

The Wager: The last three Titans games have been decided by a total of five points, so you can see why grabbing the underdog in any one of their contests would look appealing. With Houston coming in on a short week, and still feeling the effects of a collapse on Monday night, the points look even more appealing. But the Titans are the Titans, and as we’ve seen time and time again, this team is capable of laying an egg on any given Sunday. Pass

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -1, total of 46

The Pick: The Ravens are the new talk of the league. Baltimore has taken care of business with blowout wins over the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons in recent weeks, but at the end of the day, those teams just aren’t very good. Luckily, Cincinnati may not be very good either. The Bengals have seen a major fall from grace in recent weeks with the injury of A.J. Green. Andy Dalton can no longer toss endless jump balls to his elite receiver, and that’s caused all sorts of issues for the Bengals' offense, which will be tough to correct against a strong Ravens defense.

The good news for Cincinnati is they get to face off against road Joe Flacco. Sure, Flacco went off against an epically bad Bucs defense two weeks ago, but that was probably a one off. Flacco’s other two road starts this year - in Cleveland and Indianapolis - saw him throw for just one touchdown in what should have been two losses (Billy Cundiff missed two field goals for the Browns). There’s no doubt the Bengals have looked awful in recent weeks, but they still hold a stellar track record at home and already showcase a victory over Baltimore this season. Bengals 23, Ravens 20

The Wager: A month ago, the Bengals being a home dog to the Ravens would seem asinine. A lot has changed since then, and it’s hard for me to argue Cincinnati is still the better team here. But on the other hand, I think back to when everyone wrote off the Patriots before they shellacked the Bengals on Sunday Night Football. Tough call, but I’m going to go with my gut here because I don’t think Cincinnati is deserving of being a home dog. Bengals +1 (widely available)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Friday Consensus Line: Cardinals -2.5 -115, total of 48

The Pick: The Cardinals' 5-1 start may just be the most impressive in football when you take into account all of their injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They’ll be in tough this week because I can’t imagine a more daunting task than taking on a Chip Kelly offense when they’ve had two weeks to prepare. Kelly will surely have all sorts of wrinkles in store for Arizona, but I’m still not ready to put much faith into Nick Foles. The quarterback has been terrible on the road this season, completing just over 50 percent of his passes, while throwing for just one touchdown and three picks.

Arizona’s secondary has the speed to match up with Philadelphia’s speedy receivers. Conversely, the Eagles don’t have the secondary to match up with Arizona’s talented group of receivers. The Eagles will likely have linebacker Mychal Kendricks back for this contest, which is a big boost for their defense, but the Cardinals should still be able to move the ball fairly consistently. At the end of the day, Arizona just keeps finding a way to win (12-3 L15 games), and I don’t want to jump in front of that train. Cardinals 27, Eagles 21

The Wager: I don’t agree with this line at all. Cardinals -2.5 suggests the Eagles are a better team on a neutral field, and I don’t think that's the case. However, Philadelphia is coming off a bye week and, as I mentioned above, that’s not easy to game plan for. Pass

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -3 -120, total of 49

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers

The Pick: Let’s review the Steelers' season here - a loss at home to the Bucs (the Bucs!), a three-touchdown loss to the Browns, and narrow victories over the Browns at home and Jaguars on the road. Did I mention they were losing 14-0 to the Texans on their home turf until God decided to take a dump on Houston? Pittsburgh is awful, and that may be an understatement. Their defense is the slowest unit I have seen in a long while, and I have no faith whatsoever in their ability to slow down Andrew Luck.

The Colts are averaging 30.9 points per game this season and Luck has already vaulted himself into the top tier of quarterbacks in the league. Lost in the whole shuffle is that the Colts actually have a pretty solid defense as well. Indianapolis ranks first in the league in third-down defense, and their ability to get off the field has given Luck even more possessions to tear opponents apart. The Steelers enter this one on a short week, and that’s not ideal for game-planning against arguably the best offense in the league right now. Colts 34, Steelers 24

The Wager: The 80/20 rule comes into play here - don’t bet on teams that are receiving at least 80 percent of the public action. That’s the case with the Colts this week, and although I don’t see them losing, I’ll lay off for the time being. The loss of Reggie Wayne could conceivably impact the Colts' passing game, but Hakeem Nicks is a decent fill-in. Pass [I personally played Colts -1.5 prior to the Steelers’ win on Monday Night Football - I may look for a middle opportunity (Steelers +3.5 or higher) later in the week]

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns

Friday Consensus Line: Browns -7 -105, total of 43.5

The Pick: It was only a matter of time before the Browns inevitably came down to earth. Cleveland dropped a game to Jacksonville last week, and they’ll be in tough against a Raiders squad that has been playing much better under interim head coach Tony Sparano. In back-to-back weeks, the Raiders have remained competitive into the fourth quarter against the Chargers and Cardinals, two teams that are much more talented than Cleveland. Derek Carr has been far from spectacular as a rookie, but he also hasn’t done much to hurt Oakland, as he’s protected the ball fairly well.

As for Cleveland, it seems the league is starting to catch on to Brian Hoyer as more and more game tape becomes available. The Browns also lost starting center Alex Mack last week, which is a big blow to their offensive line. Cleveland was unable to run the ball against Jacksonville after Mack went down, so Hoyer will likely have to convert a bunch of third-and-longs. There’s really not a whole lot separating these two teams right now, especially with Oakland still playing hard and looking for that first victory. Browns 23, Raiders 20

The Wager: I don’t care who the opponent is - if you tell me the Browns are laying a touchdown against anyone, I’m taking the other side. Hold your nose. Raiders +7 (widely available)

Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints

Friday Consensus Line: Saints -1.5, total of 55.5

The Pick: The Saints are off to an awful 2-4 start to the season, but their spirits are still intact as the NFC South is still wide open. In what will surely be a raucous environment on Sunday night, this looks like a great bounce back spot. New Orleans may have blown a fourth quarter lead in Detroit last week, but I don’t think people realize how good the Lions are right now. The Saints had the Lions on the ropes on the road, and that’s inspiring considering how poorly they’ve played away from home in recent years. Now they return home, where they’ve won 19 straight games under Sean Payton.

Green Bay is rolling. The Pack has won four consecutive games, and their defense has also played well in that span, surrendering an average of 17 points. Let’s not be quick to dismiss early-season results, though. The Packers were obliterated in Detroit and Seattle, and will face a similarly hostile environment in the SuperDome. The Saints couldn't run the ball last week against Detroit, but their running game will be much more effective against a weak Packers front seven, and that will have Drew Brees playing in top form. Saints 35, Packers 24

The Wager: The Saints’ poor start allows for us to grab a favorable price tag with a team that simply doesn’t lose at home. Green Bay has yet to hit their bye week so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fatigue moving forward, while the Saints look a lot better in the limited sample we’ve seen since their week off. I won’t hesitate at this price. Saints pk (Sportsbook) [I’d play New Orleans at -2.5 or less]

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. Why did they pick me? I have no idea, but nevertheless, I am competing in it.

I turned in a 3-2 record last week; my third 3-2 record in the last four weeks. Unfortunately, I just can’t seem to put together that one big week to get myself into respectable territory. Luckily for me, I passed on the Chargers on Thursday night, which would have put me in an 0-1 hole to start the week.

I have yet to finalize my picks for this week, but will be playing some combination of the games I advised in my recommended wagers above. All of the progress can be monitored here, and my picks will be uploaded after the Friday night deadline.

Picks Summary

GAME PICK LEAN POOL PLAY
DET vs. ATL DET - DET
MIN @ TB MIN - MIN
CHI @ NE CHI - CHI
STL @ KC - KC at -6.5 or less KC
SEA @ CAR - - CAR
BUF @ NYJ - - NYJ
MIA @ JAX - - JAX
HOU @ TEN - TEN -
BAL @ CIN CIN - CIN
PHI @ ARI - ARI ARI
IND @ PIT - IND IND
OAK @ CLE OAK - OAK
GB @ NO NO - NO

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