NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Take the big, ugly dogs

Week 9 has arrived.

Last week was quite the emotional rollercoaster. I felt like I had the right sides with Detroit and Oakland, although an early meltdown and a late meltdown in those games led to a couple of losers. For some reason, I thought the Chicago Bears could win in New England, which was obviously way off base. Cincinnati covered against Baltimore but not without a major sweat, as the Bengals nearly blew a double-digit lead. Minnesota also made me sweat, allowing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to drive for a touchdown to tie the game, before ultimately pulling out the victory in overtime.

At the end of the day, I wrapped up Week 8 at 3-3, for a small loss. That’s two consecutive losing weeks for this betting preview, so hopefully I can turn things around this week. I like to think I provide decent analysis though, so whether you’re tailing me or fading me, I hope you’re at least getting some insight in the process.

There are only 11 games on Sunday’s card and I have a play on seven of those games. Needless to say, I like this week’s card quite a bit, which I’m not exactly sure is a good thing with the way things have gone in recent weeks. In weeks past, I would have tried to be more selective and narrow the board, but I’ve found that my pool plays have been consistently good while my recommended wagers haven’t. Decreasing volume hasn’t been beneficial lately, so I’ll refrain from doing that this week.

Once again, I’ve linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game. The Monday Night Football pick will be included in my recap piece on Monday.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 9.

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

Friday Consensus Line: Dolphins -2.5, total of 44.5

The Pick: The Chargers haven’t won a game in Miami since 1981, but that really doesn’t mean a whole lot to me considering that these San Diego and Miami squads don’t resemble those from years past. The Dolphins are trending upwards after victories over the Bears and Jaguars, the latter coming when they were gifted a couple of pick 6s by Blake Bortles. Philip Rivers isn’t going to give up the ball the same way that Bortles and Jay Cutler have in consecutive weeks, so it’ll be on Miami’s offense to actually do something for a change. Sure, Ryan Tannehill has played better since he was almost benched nearly a month ago, but that improved play has come against lesser competition.

On the other side of things, San Diego is trending downwards after back-to-back losses within their division, but those losses came against legitimate teams. The Chargers have now had extra time to prepare for this contest, which softens the blow of them having to play an early game in the Eastern time zone. San Diego should also be able to establish the run this week against a Miami run defense that is merely average, something that they weren’t able to do against Denver’s stout run defense a week ago. With a strong edge at quarterback and coaching, I expect the Chargers to get back on track. Chargers 20, Dolphins 17

The Wager: I had a very strong opinion on this game earlier in the week, but I’ve softened my stance. The 80/20 rule comes into effect here as the Chargers are receiving roughly 80 percent of the action in this contest. These huge public sides are -EV plays in the long run so I’m always wary of playing them. I’m also still concerned about San Diego’s secondary, with cornerback Jason Verrett set to miss a few weeks with a shoulder injury. Maybe I’ll have a change of heart come Sunday, but for now, I’ll lay off. Pass

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

Friday Consensus Line: Bengals -10.5, total of 43.5

The Pick: Last week’s 27-13 loss may not show it, but the Jaguars are a much improved team. A few things have changed for Jacksonville over the last month. For starters, their defense has improved immensely, limiting opponents to 17 points or less in four straight games (14 of Miami’s points came on pick 6s last week). A large part of this rejuvenation can be attributed to the emergence of one of the league’s best pass rushes, as the Jags surprisingly sit second in the NFL with 25 sacks. Andy Dalton has struggled mightily without A.J. Green in the lineup and although Green may return this weekend, I’m skeptical that he’ll be anywhere close to 100 percent. The Bengals will also be without Giovani Bernard, who is sidelined with a hip injury.

Jacksonville’s defense isn’t the only unit that’s improved in the past month. The Jaguars finally have some semblance of a ground attack with Denard Robinson taking on the feature back role. Robinson has hit the century mark in two straight games, which has allowed rookie quarterback Blake Bortles to work out of favorable situations. Bortles is still a turnover machine (15 turnovers in six games), but the opportunity for success is there against a Bengals defense that has yielded nearly 33 points per game since their bye week. Before you look at my final score prediction, let me assure you that I haven’t been sniffing glue and that I’m completely sober at the time of this writing. Jaguars 24, Bengals 23

The Wager: I’ve been burned many times by Jacksonville over the years, but I obviously have a high tolerance for pain. I look at this line and I see Cincinnati and Jacksonville being valued as the teams that they both were a month ago instead of the teams that they are now. With the Bengals in a major flat spot after a win over Baltimore and with a Thursday night home game against the Browns on deck, I love the Jags this week. Jaguars +10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns

Friday Consensus Line: Browns -6.5, total of 43.5

The Pick: I’m not sure if Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has naked pictures of Roger Goodell stashed somewhere, but that’s the only conceivable explanation for how Cleveland managed to get a schedule featuring Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay in three consecutive weeks. All joking aside though, the Browns were a Darren McFadden fumble away from coming into this one off of back-to-back losses to the Jags and Raiders. Cleveland could certainly be the worst 4-3 team in NFL history, but there is much more to like about the Browns than the lowly Bucs.

Tampa Bay has actually been competitive in four of its six losses this season, although the blowout losses to Atlanta and Baltimore are the ones that stick in everyone’s minds. With that said, this is a team with a deplorable coaching staff and an awful quarterback; two factors that are tied to success in this day and age. The Bucs must also be deflated, having lost their second overtime game in three weeks at home a week ago. Cleveland can be susceptible to the run, but the Bucs average just 86.4 yards per game on the ground, which is the fourth lowest total in the league. Even if Tampa doesn’t show up flat, it's not equipped to take advantage of the Browns’ inefficiencies. Browns 24, Bucs 16

The Wager: This is one of only a few games this week where I have no opinion whatsoever. Cleveland should be able to take care of business, but there’s no way I’d ever consider laying a touchdown with this Browns squad, even though they (undeservingly) covered a similar number a week ago. If I watch more than two minutes of this game on Sunday, I’ve done myself a disservice. Pass

Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings

Friday Consensus Line: Vikings pk, total of 43.5

The Pick: The Monday nighter between the Redskins and Cowboys delivered ESPN’s highest rating in five years. Translation: A lot of people watched Washington defeat what they perceive to be a quality opponent (the jury is still out on Dallas) and now they believe the Redskins are poised to make a run. Let me fill you in on something – the Redskins are awful. Washington welcomes Robert Griffin III back to the lineup this week, which improves its quarterback situation (that’s not saying much), but this is still a team with plenty of holes, particularly on defense. Somehow, Jim Haslett came up with a game plan to shut down Dallas on Monday night, but asking Haslett to look competent in back-to-back weeks is simply unfair for a man of his intelligence. With Barry Cofield, DeAngelo Hall, Akeem Jordan and Brian Orakpo all out indefinitely, Washington is void of talent on defense.

Meanwhile, the Vikings continue to fly under the radar. Teddy Bridgewater isn’t lighting it up by any means, but aside from a lemon against the Lions three weeks ago (I’ll give him a pass for that), he’s played pretty well. The Vikings defense has also been a great unit in recent weeks, allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive contests. With Washington presumably flying high after a victory in Dallas, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the Redskins lay an egg this week. Mike Zimmer wins the battle of ex-Bengals coordinators. Vikings 19, Redskins 13

The Wager: If you’re going to give me the better team, at home at a pick’em price, I’m going to take that every single time. It’s as simple as that. Vikings pk

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -2, total of 48.5

The Pick: I find it a little bit concerning that Philadelphia had two weeks to prepare for Arizona and only managed to put up 20 points last week. I get that Arizona is no pushover at home, but that certainly triggers some alarm bells in my head. I’ve been preaching the Eagles’ fraudulence all season and it stems from the poor play of their highly overrated quarterback, Nick Foles. Foles has committed at least two turnovers in four straight games and I fail to see that trend being put to a halt with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney harassing him all afternoon. Houston’s defense has surrendered just 20.8 points per game this season and its pass defense and rush defense are both above average statistically, which will make it difficult for the Eagles to put points on the board once again.

Philadelphia’s defense isn’t nearly as bad as its made out to be and the return of linebacker Mychal Kendricks to a full-time role will surely improve the unit going forward, but there are several matchups for the Texans to exploit here. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins should find a ton of room to maneuver against an Eagles secondary that simply can’t cover anyone. Philadelphia is decent at stopping the run but it’s not exactly easy to slow down Arian Foster, who has posted six 100-yard games this season. At the end of the day, I trust Houston more on both sides of the ball right now and feel like they have the upper hand at home. Texans 26, Eagles 20

The Wager: The public still thinks highly of the Eagles and that forces oddsmakers to hang lines that just don’t make sense. There’s no way that Philadelphia should be a road favorite here, but they’re still somehow receiving three quarters of the action in this game because everyone is in love with Chip Kelly’s offense, which really isn’t that good. I won’t think twice in grabbing the home dog. Texans +2

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs

Friday Consensus Line: Chiefs -9.5 -105, total of 42

The Pick: Betting on the Jets in every game this season would have probably landed you in a mental institution by now. They’re surely the most frustrating team in the league to back, but I maintain that they’re not as terrible as you believe they are. Last week’s 43-23 loss to Buffalo looks extremely lopsided, but that’s because Geno Smith was giving out footballs like they were Halloween treats. Enter Michael Vick, who isn’t very good, but can’t possibly be a downgrade at quarterback. Vick will have had a full week to prepare and has better weapons at his disposal than most people believe, especially with the arrival of Percy Harvin from Seattle. He can also exploit a Chiefs run defense that gives up a whopping 4.7 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Jets possess the league's best run defense, yielding just 3.3 yards per carry. New York is capable of containing Jamaal Charles and that will force Alex Smith to work out of some third-and-long situations, which isn’t exactly his forte. Kansas City’s offense is predicated on not making mistakes, which plays right into the hands of the Jets, who are susceptible to big plays downfield, but are stout at the line of scrimmage. I really believe the Chiefs will struggle to separate here and that this game will be a lot closer than people envision it being. Chiefs 24, Jets 23

The Wager: Like I mentioned above, it’s not easy to back the Jets, but at this price I find it impossible not to. This spread was Chiefs -5.5 one week ago but has been bumped up four points because of last week’s misleading results. New York has played close games at Green Bay and New England this season and that was with an XFL-calibre quarterback under center. Hold your nose and take the ugly dog. Jets +9.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys

Friday Consensus Line: N/L

The Pick: I was never fully convinced that the Cowboys were actually a good team (and I’m a Cowboys fan) and Monday’s result certainly made me even more skeptical. An offense that is now predicated on running the ball will be in tough against a Cardinals rush defense that is extremely stingy (3.3 ypc), especially if Tony Romo can’t suit up. Brandon Weeden looked decent in Monday’s loss to Washington, but everyone looks decent against Washington. Let’s not forget that Weeden has 29 turnovers in 24 career games played. If DeMarco Murray isn’t able to produce consistently this week, look for some inevitable Cowboys turnovers through the air.

I was not high on Arizona heading into the season, but they’ve made a believer out of me. Bruce Arians has proven to be one of the best head coaches in the league and his reputation as a quarterback guru has been solidified with his resurrection of Carson Palmer. Palmer is no longer the turnover machine that he was for so many years, having tossed just a single interception in four games this season. The Cardinals can exploit a Cowboys defense that is playing way over its head right now. Only one of these teams is for real and I think we’ll find that out on Sunday. Cardinals 24, Cowboys 20

The Wager: There’s no line on the board right now because of the injury status of Tony Romo, but any underdog price with the Cardinals will look appealing. I’d probably only consider playing Arizona if Romo starts though. I hate betting against backup quarterbacks in their first start because the entire team seems to rally around them in that first game. Until there’s a line posted, I can’t do anything here. Pass

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -10 -105, total of 43.5

The Pick: These teams met in St. Louis three weeks ago, with the 49ers emerging victorious after trailing 14-0 in the first quarter. San Francisco didn’t play particularly well in that game and still managed to win by two touchdowns, so you’d imagine that the 49ers should have a big edge at home coming off of a bye week. Vernon Davis has had a full two weeks to find a new pair of gloves and Jim Harbaugh has had a couple of weeks to preach the importance of not taking dumb penalties, although the 49ers could make numerous mistakes and still find a way to win this game. Rams’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams continues to collect a paycheck despite being absolutely incompetent and I doubt he can find a way to shut down the 49ers offense with so many Rams defenders on the shelf.

Injuries also extend to the offensive side of the ball for St. Louis, where it is without tackle Jake Long, who has been lost for the year with a knee injury. The Rams gave up seven sacks last week and a similar disaster appears to be in store for them again this week. I actually fear for the life of Austin Davis. St. Louis pulled off a major upset of the Seattle Seahawks a few weeks ago, but they managed to do so with trickery on special teams. That type of deception may work once in the NFL, but you can’t rely on that on a week-to-week basis. San Francisco has had two weeks to stew over its embarrassing prime-time loss to the Broncos. R.I.P. St. Louis.  49ers 27, Rams 10

The Wager: Everything points to a substantial 49ers’ victory, but I just can’t stomach laying double-digit points in a divisional matchup. I’ll consider using San Francisco in a number of teaser plays this weekend, but aside from that, this one just isn’t on my radar. Pass

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

Friday Consensus Line: Broncos -3 -120, total of 53.5

The Pick: So much for the downfall of the Patriots. New England has reeled off four straight wins since being blown out at Arrowhead, silencing all the doubters - except for me, of course. The Patriots are a good team, but I refuse to call them a great team just yet. The Broncos are a great team. Denver has built up an impressive résumé with victories over the Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, 49ers and Chargers, while the Patriots continue to beat up on the dregs of the league. Peyton Manning once again has the top passer rating in the NFL while posting a ridiculous 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Patriots have solid cover corners in Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, but their lack of a pass rush will be their downfall as Manning will have all day in the pocket to find open receivers.

I won’t diminish Tom Brady’s recent string of performances. He’s been every bit as good as Manning in the last month, throwing for 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, but unlike Manning, he’ll face a steady pass rush this week. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller have already combined for 16 sacks this season and they’re more than capable of applying consistent heat on Brady. The Patriots also won’t have the luxury of running the ball against a stout Broncos’ front seven, especially with Stevan Ridley out for the season. With a few extra days to prepare, I think the Broncos make a statement on the road this weekend. Broncos 35, Patriots 24

The Wager: I’m fully aware of Bill Belichick’s track record as an underdog, but anyone comparing this game to the Week 5 matchup between the Patriots and Bengals needs to re-evaluate their life. The Broncos are not the Bengals. Peyton Manning is not Andy Dalton. Denver is superior to Cincinnati in every which way and, in my opinion, they’re fully deserving of being a road favorite here. Let’s not forget that the Patriots are also without Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones, both of whom were present for their “upset” of Cincinnati. At the end of the day, the Pats have put up average statistical numbers against one of the league’s easiest schedules, while the Broncos have dominated one of the week’s toughest schedules. Don’t overthink this. Broncos -3

Oakland Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks

Friday Consensus Line: Seahawks -14.5, total of 43

The Pick: Can we stop talking about the Seahawks like they’re the same team as last year? Please. Since their bye week, the Seahawks have posted lacklustre road victories over the Redskins and Panthers, while posting losses against the Cowboys and Rams. That’s not exactly the most daunting stretch of games after a bye, yet somehow Seattle managed to go 2-2. There are many problems with this team. For starters, Doug Baldwin is their No. 1 receiver. Doug freaking Baldwin. To make matters worse, the Seahawks' running game just isn’t getting it done as it was in years past, with Marshawn Lynch failing to eclipse the century mark in rushing yards in any single game since Week 1.

There’s a reason the Raiders are winless – they’re a bad football team. But this is a bad football team that has shown signs of life since its bye week, playing close games into the fourth quarter against the Chargers, Cardinals and Browns; all of which are teams with winning records. Derek Carr has been getting better by the week, as the Raiders’ offensive line has done a good job of keeping him upright. The Seahawks’ once-vaunted pass rush has been non-existent this season and, subsequently, Carr should be able to occasionally move the ball. At the end of the day, Seattle boasts a huge home-field advantage and it's certainly the more talented football team, but I fully expect Oakland to put up a fight. Seahawks 20, Raiders 13

The Wager: Whenever you’re considering laying more than two touchdowns with a team in the NFL, you have to be confident that they can score enough points to cover. Seattle’s last six games have seen them average 22.7 points per game. The Raiders are playing better football and the Seahawks have been awful. This spread is too steep in my opinion. Raiders +14.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -2, total of 47.5

The Pick: The Steelers/Ravens series has always been known for its close games, which is why many people were surprised when the Ravens thrashed the Steelers 26-6 back in Week 2. Well, I wasn’t one of those people. I strongly believe that Baltimore is far superior to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are getting credit for back-to-back great offensive performances, but their victory two weeks ago against Houston wasn’t a great offensive performance by any means. Pittsburgh benefited from some huge luck in that contest and their recent results have really skewed the public’s perception of this team. The Steelers faced a three-game stretch from Week 4 to Week 6 in which they lost to the Bucs at home, barely beat the Jaguars on the road and then got shellacked by the Browns.

Baltimore fell on the road in Cincinnati last week, but that didn’t surprise me (I had a play on the Bengals last week in my preview). The loss of cornerback Jimmy Smith will certainly hurt the Ravens' defense but this is still a unit loaded with above-average talent. The Ravens' defense ranks highly in almost every statistical category, so don’t expect Ben Roethlisberger to go off for six touchdowns and 522 yards again. Joe Flacco’s history on the road is certainly worrisome, but his numbers against the Steelers are encouraging, as he’s only tossed five interceptions in 11 career starts against Pittsburgh. The Ravens sweep the season series. Ravens 27, Steelers 21

The Wager: Here’s another game that many people will look at and wonder how the home team is getting points. I’m obviously not one of those people. I lined the Ravens at -3 and although I was hoping to get them as an underdog, I’ll settle for anything short of a field goal. Ravens -2

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. Why did they pick me? I have no idea, but nevertheless, I am competing in it.

I finished last week at 2-3, and have still only posted back-to-back winning weeks once this season. I know, pretty pathetic. I’m nowhere close to having finalized this week’s card since I have so many plays to choose from, although I’ll most certainly have Denver and Baltimore on my card. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after the Friday night deadline.

Picks Summary