Updated list of traded picks and protections for 2015 NBA Draft
The 2015 NBA Trade Deadline is in the past, which means no more 2015 draft picks can be traded until the season comes to an end.
With a record-setting amount of activity taking place on Feb. 19 and plenty of first-round picks having previously been dealt, it's worth taking stock of exactly who will be drafting with which picks when June rolls around. Scoff at the timing if you will, fan of a playoff team, but there are at least eight teams for whom this minutiae now means the world.
What follows are several tables related to the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft. Look for more on the second round closer to draft time, but it's quite messy and not exactly pressing here in early March.
2015 1st-round picks by selection
The following table shows the first round as it would look had no picks changed hands, based on the standings on the morning of March 2. The third column indicates if the team owes their pick to another team and the fourth column outlines the protections on that pick.
As it stands, the Los Angeles Clippers are the only team that owes their pick outright but 10 teams could lose their pick depending on where it lands. For example, in the case of the Philadelphia 76ers, they owe their first-round pick only if it falls outside of the top 14.
2015 1st-round picks by owner
The following table shows more or less the same information as above, just displayed on a team-by-team level. For example, the Boston Celtics own their own pick but would also own the Dallas Mavericks' if it lands from 4-to-14. Additionally, Boston would own picks belonging to the Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves (if it's outside the top-12) and the 76ers (if it were outside the top-14).
Lottery Odds
The table below shows each team's odds of drafting first overall, in the top three and in the top five at different finishes in the standings.
This is important for fans looking ahead to specific players, but it's also of a great deal of importance to those teams with protections on their picks. A stroke of misfortune in the lottery could be the difference between a lottery pick and no pick at all.
Potential Moving Picks
Certain, or Almost Certain to move
- The Clippers will send their first-round pick to the Celtics.
- The Heat will send their pick to the 76ers if it falls outside of the top-10. Miami has eyes on the playoffs but the loss of Chris Bosh could have the team on the outside looking in. Were they to fall to ninth in the East, The Heat would gain a 2.5-percent chance of keeping their pick.
- The Pelicans only keep their pick if it lands in the top-3 or the bottom-11 of the first round, meaning it's likely headed to the Rockets. The Pelicans may still make a playoff push but are unlikely to climb high enough for a bottom-11 pick. If they miss the playoffs, the Pelicans have a 2.2-percent chance at a top-3 pick at best.
- Houston will send its pick to the Lakers so long as the Rockets make the playoffs, a near certainty.
Up in the Air
- The Lakers will send their pick to the 76ers if it falls outside of the top-five. If LA finished 27th, where it currently sits, there would be a 17.2-percent chance of it changing hands. No team has a greater incentive to drop in the standings the rest of the way than the Lakers.
- The Kings will send their pick to the Bulls if it falls outside the top-10. They would have to rise at least one spot in the standings for that to be possible, but they're only four games out of 18th, at which point they'd have a 97.8-percent chance of losing the pick. Tread carefully, George Karl.
- The Thunder will send their pick to the 76ers if it lands outside of the top-18. Should Oklahoma City miss the playoffs, it would keep its pick. Should the Thunder make it, they'd need to finish outside of the top-12 overall to keep the pick - something they'll likely end up within one or two positions of.
Unlikely to move
- The 76ers will keep their top-14 protected pick by way of missing the playoffs. It otherwise would have gone to the Celtics.
- The Timberwolves would have to rise to 21st in the standings to have even a remote chance of losing their pick to the Celtics, which is almost impossible since they're 10.5 games back. They'll almost surely keep their top-12 protected pick.
- The Mavericks will keep their pick so long as they make the playoffs or it lands in the top-3, with the former representing a near certainty at this point. Sorry again, Boston.
- The Grizzlies will only send their pick to the Nuggets if they miss the playoffs and don't land in the top-five in the lottery. They're not missing the playoffs.
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