Fantasy: 3 players you shouldn't reach for on draft day
With Opening Day just around the corner, theScore's MLB editors break down everything you need to know to become a fantasy champion in 2015. Check out all of theScore's fantasy content for the upcoming season here.
Value is a relative term in fantasy circles and determining it requires context.
Where was Player X drafted? Where was said player expected to be drafted? Who else was still on the board? It's not as much about who as it is where.
Here are three players who should definitely be drafted, just not as early as they're projected to go.
Note: Recommendations apply to standard 10-team, 5x5 formats. Average draft position (ADP) is based on ESPN live draft results.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Colorado Rockies
2014 Stats: .312 AVG, 74 R, 24 HR, 76 RBI, 8 SB
2015 ZiPS: .289 AVG, 68 R, 22 HR, 76 RBI, 9 SB
theScore OF Rank: 19
ESPN ADP: 44.3 overall (No. 13 OF)
Dickerson's breakout 2014 season came with several caveats: his batting average was more than 100 points higher at Coors Field (.362), his BABIP was 50 points above league average, he owns a .683 career OPS against lefties, and he has fewer than 700 total plate appearances. Dickerson's ADP has him being picked just after Bryce Harper and Justin Upton, and above stat-stuffers like Starling Marte and Jason Heyward. The 25-year-old outfielder has a place on your roster, just not as a fourth- or fifth-round pick.
Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
2014 Stats: 20-9, 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 179 SO, 227 IP
2015 ZiPS: 17-9, 2.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 175 SO, 203.7 IP
theScore SP Rank: 14
ESPN ADP: 57.3 overall (No. 15 SP)
Wainwright has been excellent the last two seasons, but his fantasy value is beginning to wane. The Cardinals All-Star is currently being drafted ahead of superior strikeout pitchers, and he's probably due for a draft-day bump on reputation alone. Top 50 is too soon for a pitcher whose career-low K/9 rate ranked 48th among starters and whose surgically repaired elbow was cleaned up in the offseason after bouts of inflammation. He's not worth taking over a top-five third baseman or a top-20 outfielder.
Nelson Cruz, OF, Seattle Mariners
2014 Stats: .271 AVG, 87 R, 40 HR, 108 RBI, 4 SB
2015 ZiPS: .250 AVG, 68 R, 29 HR, 83 RBI, 6 SB
theScore OF Rank: 20
ESPN ADP: 61.3 overall (No. 20 OF)
Here's why you shouldn't draft Cruz as a top-40 hitter: he's played more than 128 games twice since becoming a regular in 2009, he hit .248 with a .769 OPS in the second half last year, and he's moving to one of baseball's most home-run-suppressing parks. If you want value in the fifth or sixth round, take Todd Frazier (72) or Jason Heyward (86). If you're looking for an outfielder to hit 25-30 home runs, wait on Jay Bruce (95) or Jorge Soler (125). And if there's something else you want, why not look elsewhere?