Blue Jays will be hard-pressed to overcome loss of Stroman
The Toronto Blue Jays learned the hard way how important depth is.
While there's little the Blue Jays could have done to prevent Marcus Stroman's season-ending knee injury - save for abolishing pitchers' fielding practice altogether - the organization could have done more during the offseason to address its lack of depth. In fact, it should have.
The Blue Jays just lost their best pitcher, a 23-year-old right-hander with electric stuff who emerged as one of the game's top young arms after breezing through his first taste of the big leagues in 2014.
There's still upside in Toronto's rotation without Stroman, but the team will be relying on a pair of even younger arms to do what he did a year ago. A tall order, to be sure.
Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez, two talented youngsters with a combined 39 2/3 innings of big league experience, are going to be forced to take on a major role after the Blue Jays did nothing during the offseason to address their rotation with the exception of trading for right-hander Marco Estrada.
The Blue Jays will likely be careful with the duo's workload, making it difficult to envision both going start to finish if they begin the season in the rotation - which would be Toronto's highest-upside move.
R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle have been recent locks for 200-plus innings of league-average pitching, but that run has shown signs of running its course. The soft-tossing Buehrle had a 4.57 ERA over the final three months of the season, a span of 15 starts, while Dickey's 61 homers allowed since 2013 is the most in all of baseball. Estrada ranks ninth.
That potentially leaves Drew Hutchison as the team's best starting pitcher unless Norris or Sanchez pull a 2014 version of Stroman - a difficult task for any pitcher - or the Blue Jays trade for an arm.
The American League East remains very strong, despite the lack of a clear favorite. There are four teams, including the Blue Jays and their high-powered offense, which appear to have a chance of winning the division - plus the Tampa Bay Rays who have the best rotation among the five clubs.
But none of them lost their best pitcher before the season started, a young arm who was to be the anchor of Toronto's rotation. And while one player can only provide so much value, it's the domino effect Stroman's injury creates that greatly impacts the Blue Jays' chances of snapping their 21-year long postseason drought.
Stroman was projected by Steamer to be worth 3.3 wins above replacement, the best mark for Toronto pitchers and in the top 15 highest among all MLB starters after posting a 3.65 ERA (2.84 FIP) with a 3.96 strikeout-to-walk rate over 130 2/3 innings in his rookie season.
Toronto can't replace that type of production internally, likely shaving a few wins off its season win total. It wouldn't be in as rough of shape if it prioritized its rotation more this offseason, one that had the sixth-worst FIP in all of baseball a year ago.
Losing Stroman in a division as competitive as the AL East figures to mean another year in Toronto without playoff baseball.