Prospect Watch: Okafor vs. Towns likely to come down to taste
The battle to be the No. 1 pick in June's NBA Draft may not be a battle all that much longer.
That's not to say Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns are going to put an end to the debate with a singularly incomparable performance. Because they're probably not. Even if they did, the other would surely answer with one of their own, as has been the case over the last several weeks.
While Okafor's grip as the draft's top prospect remains, it's loosened some since the beginning of the season. While Okafor has dominated offensively, Towns has improved a great deal on that end and projects as an all-world defender. That improvement is great, but even peak Towns probably won't be able to do things like this:
See the pattern? For every argument for one, there's a counter for the other. They're about as close as two players can be at the top of a draft, and they play the same position, to boot.
The NCAA tournament has done nothing to make the choice any clearer. Towns scored a career-high 21 points with 11 rebounds and three blocks in the Round of 64 for Kentucky, so Okafor answered with 21 points, three rebounds and two blocks of his own for Duke. Towns blocked three more shots with eight points and seven rebounds in just 21 minutes against a very tough frontline, Okafor responded with 26 points, six rebounds and three blocks.
In saying it may no longer be a battle, that's because it's really come down to individual taste or preference at this point. Reports suggest that Okafor remains ahead on more boards thanks to his immense offensive value, the likes of which is incredibly rare for a freshman big, but Towns is close.
Short of the two behemoths squaring off in the national championship game - and please, please let this happen - who goes No. 1 may just come down to which team is selecting.
| March 24 Rank | Jan. 7 Avg | Feb. 4 Avg | Feb. 25 Avg | March 11 Avg | ESPN RANK | DX RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlil Okafor - C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns - C | 3 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Mudiay - PG | 2 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 3 |
| D'Angelo Russell - PG | 11.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 4 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein - C | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| Justise Winslow - SF | 6 | 11 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 7 |
| Kristaps Porzingis - PF | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 5 | 9 |
| Mario Hezonja - SF | 8.5 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Stanley Johnson - SF | 10 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 12 | 6 |
| Myles Turner - C | 10 | 10 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10 | 11 |
| Kelly Oubre - SF | 9 | 8.5 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Frank Kaminsky - C | n/a | n/a | n/a | 12.5 | 13 | 10 |
| Kevon Looney - PF | 8 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7 | 19 |
(Courtesy: ESPN, DraftExpress)
And the New York Knicks are the favorite to be making that pick. Almost certain to finish with the league's worst record, the Knicks would have a 25 percent chance at the top pick and a 21.5 percent chance at the consolation prize, which may end up being who they would have taken first anyway. Who the Knicks pick at No. 1 would say a lot about how Phil Jackson plans to build the team from here.
Among the others in the mix for a top pick, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers already have centers on the roster but would almost surely go the best player available route, while the Los Angeles Lakers would probably lean offense over defense with Okafor.
| TANK RANK | TEAM | W-L | GB | TOP-3 ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knicks | 14-57 | - | 64.2% |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 16-54 | 2.5 | 51.6% |
| 3 | 76ers | 17-53 | 3.5 | 51.4% |
| 4 | Lakers | 18-50 | 5.5 | 37.7% |
| 5 | Magic | 22-50 | 7.5 | 29.1% |
| 6 | Kings | 24-45 | 11 | 21.5% |
| 7 | Pistons | 26-44 | 12.5 | 15.0% |
| 8 | Nuggets | 27-44 | 13 | 9.9% |
| 9 | Nets | 29-40 | 16 | 6.1% |
| 10 | Pacers | 30-40 | 16.5 | 4.0% |
| 11 | Bobcats | 30-39 | 17 | 2.9% |
| 12 | Jazz | 31-39 | 17.5 | 2.5% |
| 13 | Pelicans | 37-33 | 23.5 | 2.2% |
| 14 | Suns | 38-33 | 24 | 1.8% |
The important thing for the Lakers is that they're in good shape of keeping their pick, which they owe to the 76ers if it falls outside of the top-five. With the fourth-worst record, there's only a 17.2-percent chance they fall out of the top-five.
The Sacramento Kings were in a similar situation, owing their pick to the Chicago Bulls if it fell out of the top-10. In playing poorly down the stretch, they've all but eliminated that possibility - they'd need to jump the Detroit Pistons and Denver Nuggets to even have a microscopic chance of losing the pick.
Read more about NBA prospects from the NCAA tournament
Pre-Tourney Previews: EAST | WEST | SOUTH | MIDWEST | Kentucky
Day One review: Russell, Towns shine
Day Two review: Okafor holds serve, Kaminsky dominates
Day Three review: Hollis-Jefferson locks up Russell
Day Four review: Rozier and Winslow excel
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