Scouting Report: Jonathan Holmes, SF, Texas
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Sometimes, two different people see an entirely different player when they scour all the relevant draft information.
That's the case for Jonathan Holmes, the Texas senior who has one of the biggest rankings gaps between the world's two leading draft sites, DraftExpress and ESPN. Where DraftExpress sees Holmes as being worthy of a first-round pick, ESPN's Chad Ford doesn't even rate him as deserving of a second-round flier.
That's an enormous disparity that speaks to a difference of opinion on two key fronts: How much can a college senior continue to improve, and is Holmes' outside shot for real?
Relevant Background
| Position | DraftExpress Rank | ESPN Rank | Height w/ Shoes | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 24 | 61 | 6' 9.25" | 242 |
| Wingspan | Standing Reach | Max Vertical (in.) | Hand Length (in.) | Body Fat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' 11.5" | 8' 11.5" | 31.0 | 8.25 | 7.2% |
| NCAA Stats | PPG | RPG | BPG | FG% | 3FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 38.9% | 33.1% |
| 2013-14 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 50.5% | 33.3% |
| 2012-13 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 45.8% | 28.9% |
| 2011-12 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 48.5% | 25.0% |
Scouting Report
Strengths: Holmes measured well enough at the combine to be considered a combo forward. He can shoot like a three, is big enough to play the four, and his athleticism, while not elite, allows him to capably man either spot on both ends. His 3-point percentage may not be all that impressive but he had plenty of attempts, and he's also a good free-throw shooter who has performed well in pre-draft shooting drills. If he can knock down the NBA triple, the fact that he does a lot of other things well and plays a smart game could make him a quality reserve.
Weaknesses: As with a lot of seniors, Holmes lacks a calling card giving teams a reason to draft him. He does everything well, but doesn't do anything great, though the added positional versatility could make him a useful defender. The issue will be if the shot isn't there right away, as it could make it tough for a coach to justify playing him out of the gate. There's also the curious fact that he took a huge leap as a junior and regressed as a senior, though part of that may have been due to a February concussion that saw him shoot 31.2 percent over his final 10 games.
Highlight Reel
What to Expect on Draft Day
The lack of agreement on draft sites suggests there's probably a great deal of disagreement at the team level, too. If Holmes shoots it well in workouts, a contending team late in the first round could look at an NBA-ready body and high-IQ player and see a useful rotation piece. If he slides into the second, there's not a ton of upside to dream on. In other words, he could go anywhere and it wouldn't be a surprise.