Western Conference Finals Preview: Rockets vs. Warriors - 3 things you need to know

The Houston Rockets believed all season that they're a better team than the Golden State Warriors, despite their records suggesting otherwise. James Harden believes he was the league's Most Valuable Player, despite the voters choosing Steph Curry.

As unlikely as it may have seemed at the start of the playoffs, Harden and the Rockets have their opportunity to prove themselves correct on both counts when the Western Conference Finals tip off in Oakland on Tuesday.

The 56-26 Rockets finished second in the Western Conference but their reputation didn't quite match their level of success. After dispatching the rival Dallas Mavericks in five games, they appeared done, down 3-1 to the Los Angeles Clippers, before becoming the ninth team in NBA history to erase such a deficit.

The 67-15 Warriors, meanwhile, swept the New Orleans Pelicans and then beat the Memphis Grizzlies in six games, leaving them plenty rested by comparison. They'll enter Game 1 as a 10-point favorite, speaking to how heavily they're likely to be favored in the series.

Here are three things you need to know about the series:

Key strategic questions face both sides

The biggest tactical decision on either side initially will be who Kevin McHale chooses to have Trevor Ariza guard. Ariza is the team's best perimeter defender, and the Sophie's choice of putting him on Steph Curry or Klay Thompson is one McHale will likely oscillate on.

Task Ariza with chasing Curry, and Thompson can post up Jason Terry; ask Ariza to check Thompson, and Terry or Harden are left to expend energy chasing Curry through a never-ending forest of screens. Pablo Prigioni is a disruptive thief off the bench but doesn't figure to average more than 20 minutes, and the Rockets may be hesitant to make that slight offensive downgrade given how brilliant the Warriors' defense is.

The Rockets will play a smaller power forward - Josh Smith or Terrence Jones - which should help with switching and scrambling on defense and help space the floor on offense.

That could invite the Warriors to stay small, using a wing at the four when Draymond Green hits the bench or slides to center rather than leaning on David Lee with Mo Speights sidelined. Lineups with Green at the five can force turnovers and push the pace, bending a team's transition defense, as the team's reserve wings have been more reliable than their backup bigs.

But going small introduces its own challenge, particularly when Andrew Bogut hits the bench. Steve Kerr will likely match Bogut's rest periods with Dwight Howard's, but Howard plays more and could conceivably get Bogut in early foul trouble, and the Warriors may not want to task Green with checking Howard, who has looked terrific in the playoffs.

The list of potential adjustments and counters could go on forever. That's the beauty of the playoffs.

Does the regular-season sweep matter?

The Warriors swept the regular season series between the teams, beating Houston by an average of 15.3 points. Not a single game finished within single-digits, and against the Rockets, the Warriors owned the league's largest point differential between any two winning teams.

That's a bad sign for Houston, and teams that swept a 4-0 regular season series are 55-6 all-time against those teams in the playoffs.

But it's not a death knell. Few thought Houston would beat L.A. and even fewer thought they could come back from down 3-1. That 55-6 mark is not 61-0, and it's not as simple as saying the Warriors have the Rockets' number, even if they seem to. On speed dial.

The history of team's shaking off a regular season sweep is unsightly. That could shake the Rockets' confidence, but in concert with their unprecedented 3-1 comeback, it could also fuel their belief in themselves. After all, the 1995 Rockets also came back from a 3-1 series deficit and then beat a San Antonio Spurs team they went 1-3 against in the season en route to a championship.

Curry vs. Harden

This is the main event. The marquee matchup. The potential key to the series.

While they may not check each other often, the Curry-Harden MVP debate will get renewed focus in this series. Yes, Curry already won the award, and in that sense the debate is long over, but fans - Rockets fans, in particular - are sure to argue the merits of each throughout.

The superstars have continued their excellent play into the playoffs: Curry is averaging 28.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.8 steals while Harden is putting up 16.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, eight assists, and 1.3 steals.

This one's going to be a lot of fun.

Projected Starting Lineups

Series Outlook