MVP Watch: Debating the cases for Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson
The last three summers, any discussion about the American League MVP award revolved around two names: Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera. After watching his elder counterpart win the award in both 2012 and 2013, Trout received some long-overdue recognition last year when he earned the honor in a unanimous vote.
Once seemingly destined for Trout's mantelpiece for a second straight year, the AL MVP award has become a two-horse race between him and Josh Donaldson, who's emerged as the game's premier third baseman and one of the best players on the planet during his first season with the Toronto Blue Jays.
With the two stars scheduled to meet Friday for the beginning of a pivotal three-game series, we delved deeper into the debate to examine both of their cases:
BY THE NUMBERS
The two candidates boast some of the strongest offensive numbers in all of baseball, with both players ranking among the top-five in the AL in wins above replacement, OPS, and home runs.
| Player | HR | RBI | R | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donaldson | 33 | 91 | 89 | 4 |
| Trout | 33 | 71 | 79 | 10 |
Though there isn't much separating the two in terms of raw numbers, Trout and Donaldson racked up their gaudy totals under very different circumstances. Trout, for instance, boasts a slight edge over Donaldson in isolated power despite playing half his games in Anaheim, a much less hitter-friendly environment than Toronto. Donaldson's considerable edge in runs scored and runs batted in, meanwhile, is at least partially a function of hitting in a lineup with the best OPS (.768) in the majors.
It's also worth noting that, as a center fielder, Trout is tasked with patrolling a more demanding defensive position than Donaldson, who doesn't play in the middle of the diamond. - Jonah Birenbaum
| Player | wRC+ | ISO | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donaldson | 155 | .276 | .309 | 6.6 |
| Trout | 173 | .290 | .336 | 6.9 |
WINNING TRADITION
Not since Alex Rodriguez in 2003 has the AL MVP been handed out to a player on a non-playoff team. Since then, nine players on division-winning clubs and two more on wild-card teams have claimed the award. The Blue Jays and Angels currently occupy wild-card positions and are within striking distance of their respective divisions. Each is also a losing streak away from missing out on the playoffs entirely. The MVP vote will likely be swayed should either the Blue Jays or Angels miss out on October baseball. - Brandon Wile
| Year | Player | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Mike Trout | Angels | 1st in West |
| 2013 | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 1st in Central |
| 2012 | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 1st in Central |
| 2011 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | 1st in Central |
| 2010 | Josh Hamilton | Rangers | 1st in West |
| 2009 | Joe Mauer | Twins | 1st in Central |
| 2008 | Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | Wild card |
| 2007 | Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | Wild card |
| 2006 | Justin Morneau | Twins | 1st in Central |
| 2005 | Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 1st in East |
| 2004 | Vladamir Guerrero | Angels | 1st in West |
| 2003 | Alex Rodriguez | Rangers | 4th in West |
THE CASE FOR TROUT
Trout is the best player in baseball and should be a no-brainer to claim his second straight award, even with a surging challenger.
Trout is either equal to or better than Donaldson in each of the major statistical categories considered, and that's without accounting for the environment in which the Angels' slugger plays. Donaldson plays half his games in the much more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, and sits in an offensively superior lineup. Donaldson is hitting .331/.386/.653 with 20 home runs at home and .251/.336/.475 with 13 home runs on the road. Trout has had Kole Calhoun and Johnny Giavotella hitting in front of him for the majority of the season.
Trout's August slump, which can partly be attributed to a wrist injury, has allowed Donaldson to jump into the conversation, but the reigning champ still holds a significant lead in ISO, BABIP, and wRC+, while playing strong defense at a premium position. - BW
THE CASE FOR DONALDSON
Donaldson's slight edge over Trout in traditional, descriptive stats like runs and runs batted in doesn't wield any predictive value or make him a better baseball player. His superior counting stats do, however, help illuminate how he's done more at the plate to improve his team's chances of squeaking out a victory in 2015 than Trout has for the Angels.
When it comes to win probability added - a metric that credits or debits a player for how much their plate appearances increase or decrease their team’s win expectancy - Donaldson boasts a considerable advantage over his younger counterpart. Win probability added, like other counting stats, is a function of opportunity, but to penalize Donaldson for consistently delivering in high-leverage situations is a bit backwards.
And if wins down the stretch are weighted more heavily than wins in April, Donaldson is the obvious choice. Since the All-Star break, he ranks second in the American League in win probability added - Trout, mired in a slump, is 36th - while leading all of baseball in wins above replacement. - JB