Gobert makes the Jazz special on D, but can they make it work with him on offense?
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Thanks to their 19-10 flourish to finish last season, the Utah Jazz took up the mantle of offseason 'It' team; a young, rebuilding group that had coalesced down the stretch faster and more substantively than anyone could've predicted.
It's easy to assume such teams will keep running along perfect exponential curves and that the promise of youth and talent will be fulfilled, but those curves get upended as often as not. There's no reason to think the Jazz will go the way of, say, the early-aughts Los Angeles Clippers, but a lot will have to go right for them to follow in the footsteps of the late-aughts Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Jazz's turnaround was sparked entirely by defense, which is to say it was sparked by Rudy Gobert, a giant, nimble, go-go-gadget-armed disruptor who took over as the team's starting center after Enes Kanter was shipped at the trade deadline. Gobert represents the Jazz's greatest cause for optimism, and, as such, is their biggest swing factor. He's a defensive terror, arguably the best rim protector in basketball, and he's somehow (allegedly) still elongating, with a standing reach that now basically equals the height of the rim. Provided he stays healthy, the Jazz will almost certainly be a top-10 defensive unit. But his being such a focal point means their own points could prove hard to come by.
That Gobert's offensive game is largely limited to catching the ball under the hoop or crushing home lobs and putbacks wouldn't be such an issue - we've seen the likes of Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan thrive on similar skill sets - but for the fact that he'll be playing alongside Derrick Favors - a strong, highly skilled power forward whose similar lack of range makes the two a difficult frontcourt to work around.
The Jazz, for as well as they played, were worse across the board offensively after Gobert took over as starting center, and scored 5.6 points fewer points per 100 possessions without him for the season.
Jazz | O-Rating | TS% | Assist rate | Turnover rate |
---|---|---|---|---|
Pre-All-Star | 102.9 | 53.3 | 16.2 | 16.2 |
Post-All-Star | 101.8 | 52.8 | 15.5 | 17.1 |
When Gobert and Favors shared the floor, the Jazz scored just 100.9 points per 100 possessions, which would've ranked 23rd in the NBA for the season.
Of course, none of that will matter if they can defend the way they did after the break, when they were the stingiest team in the league by far - and would rank as one of the greatest defensive teams ever if they could sustain it over a full season. Which ... will be difficult.
It's worth noting that the Jazz's run bled into the dog days of the season, when multiple teams tend to check out and every stat needs to be seasoned with a healthy dose of salt. The Jazz also caught teams by surprise in the second half, which is a luxury they won't have this time around. They'll be scouted thoroughly, and opponents will gameplan to limit Gobert's impact by exposing his offensive limitations and pulling him away from the rim on defense.
Smallball is all the rage, and teams can stick smaller players on Gobert, confident he won't be able to make them pay by posting up or putting the ball on the floor. (Going small could stretch him at the defensive end, and while Gobert is certainly long and mobile enough to guard out to the 3-point line, having him out there cuts into his value.)
Gobert has flashed a deft interior passing touch, but he's also struggled to set up open teammates on the perimeter with quick reads out of the post. Teammates shot just 42 percent from the field and 33.1 percent from deep off Gobert passes last season, both the lowest marks of any projected Jazz starter. He'll need to improve in that area to clear up the congestion playing next to Favors will create.
Potentially compounding the problem is the Jazz's ostensible paucity of wing depth and outside shooting. Alec Burks is returning from shoulder surgery, but while he's a solid driver and ballhandler, he's unlikely to help Utah's spacing. Burks played only 27 games last season, but the Jazz shot better from 3-point range and had a higher assist rate without him on the floor. Rodney Hood had a strong finish to his rookie campaign, but he's still an unproven commodity without much of an in-between game. Trey Burke is slated to start at point guard, which is all you need to know about the team's point guard situation.
Gordon Hayward is the closest thing the team has to an offensive superstar, and his incredible versatility - ballhandling, passing, shooting, ability to get to the line - is the rug that could tie Utah's proverbial room together. He showed for the first time last season that he's capable of carrying at least a functional offense. He'll need to take another step forward if it's to be better than that.
The Jazz have a chance to be something special in the coming years. We can be reasonably assured they'll be solid (if not elite) on defense. The other end of the court will be the one to watch.
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