DFS: Beware the LeGarrette Blount Hype Train

Rex Ryan is the NFL's much-beloved, crazy uncle. Sometimes he says crazy things but you have to just smile and accept what he says with a grain of salt. Once in a while, the Bills' head coach will give DFS players a gift:

LeGarrette Blount runs like a bowling ball, a skill that could prove for some intense collisions up the middle against Marcell Dareus and the Bills' elite run-stuffing defense.

High-usage, bruising RBs with a reputation for excelling in short-yardage situations make for tantalizing DFS plays but can we take Ryan at his word? Why would Bill Belichick play right into the Bills' strengths by leaning heavily on a between-the-tackles rusher?

These concerns are enough of a reason to fade Blount in your DFS lineups in most formats. In fact, if we pull back a bit and look at the broader use of Blount during his multiple stints with the Pats' offense there is reason for skepticism.

The chart below shows how the Patriots have split snaps between their primary running backs in 2013, when Blount played in all 16 regular season games, and in 2014, in the five regular season games after he rejoined the Patriots.

Vereen stands in as the Lewis proxy: an under-sized RB that can be used in both the running and passing game. Lewis tallied 120 yards from scrimmage on 15 carries and five targets in Week 1. While both Vereen and Blount saw relative playing time increase in the five games they played together in 2014, it's clear that the offense was favoring backs with catching ability out of the backfield.

Lewis isn't Matt Forte or Le'Veon Bell but playing alongside Brady means that plenty of short yardage passes will be used to exploit the angles the defense is forced to sacrifice. That is the Achilles' heel of the Bills' defense: their D-line will seek to put pressure on Brady and he simply doesn't need much time to hit his receivers on short cross and flat routes.

If the Bills can collapse the pocket, Blount might find his usage restricted to pass-blocking duty, killing his DFS potential. Blount only had four targets for 18 yards in five games last season with the Pats; in 2013, he had five targets all season. Blount's best chance of being a a fantasy impact is if he gets touches in the red zone.

And even as a goal-line option, the Patriots have to consider Rob Gronkowski to be a better option than Blount. Teams can stack the box against a bruising RB but it's damn near impossible to cover the mountain of Gronk, as the Steelers can attest to.

Blount will surely get some carries, if only to keep the defenses honest and take a bit of pressure off of Brady. For Rex Ryan to say he's preparing for Blount to be the bell cow on Sunday is disingenuous at best; Lewis, with his ability to catch the ball in space, is a deadlier weapon.

Ryan's edict to the media has driven the price up on Blount to a point where his DFS salary is significantly higher than Lewis' in all formats. Even if he can't turn the edge on the defense and break free on a running play, he is likely to be targeted as a receiver - a major boon in PPR leagues.

Lewis is an intriguing Week 2 option against the Bills in GPP games and at his salary, he might even be a contender in cash games. For Blount to return on his cost, he'll need to dominate a great defense; all Lewis needs to do is let Tom Brady's arm do most of the heavy lifting, as he has done his entire career.