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Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Minnesota Twins

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Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Minnesota Twins (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):

Hitters

C Kurt Suzuki

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 32 99 4 47 1
Steamer 29 69 4 28 1
Zeile 32 75 4 29 1

Suzuki has started 113 or more games at catcher in seven of his last eight seasons. At this point, the dependable backstop is nothing more than a defense-first innings-eater. His hard-hit percentage has steadily fallen since 2012 and he will lose at-bats to recent acquisition John Ryan Murphy.

1B Joe Mauer

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 62 139 8 58 2
Steamer 62 135 9 56 2
Zeile 67 143 9 58 2

Mauer enters his third season since moving to 1B. While his high-OBP profile made him a fantasy MVP at C, his lack of power at 1B doesn't compare well to prototypical corner infielders. The silver lining: he hits well from both sides of the plate and is still an every-day player.

2B Brian Dozier

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 90 140 24 70 14
Steamer 83 143 20 71 13
Zeile 85 141 22 75 14

Dozier will be 29 in mid-May and appears to have settled into a hitter's profile of low average with "juice" stats - homers and steals. That's atypical for a 2B, as is batting in the two-spot. With a bit more speed in front of him and more power behind him, expect Dozier's runs and RBI to trend upwards.

3B Trevor Plouffe

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 64 130 18 75 2
Steamer 60 123 17 65 2
Zeile 66 129 19 68 2

Plouffe has developed into a dependable 3B with just enough pop in his bat to make him a waiver-wire pick-up mid-season, when he inevitably heats up for a stretch. He may not see enough PAs to record his third straight 80-RBI season if Miguel Sano sees time at 3B.

SS Eduardo Escobar

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 49 103 9 45 3
Steamer 43 100 8 43 4
Zeile 47 103 9 46 3

The 12 homers Escobar had in 446 PA last season is likely unsustainable; his hard-hit percentage actually dropped from 29.2% to 28.5%. To his credit, Escobar was more patient at the plate in 2015, but the Twins will want him to provide defense and a little bit of offense from the bottom of the order.

LF Eddie Rosario

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 62 127 13 56 9
Steamer 56 130 13 60 13
Zeile 54 119 12 56 11

Rosario showed enough promise in his rookie year to warrant another year fighting for time in the OF logjam, though he'll have uber-prospect Max Kepler nipping at his heels in Spring Training. Rosario strikes out too much and walks too little to figure into many draft strategies for the time being.

CF Byron Buxton

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 46 101 9 37 15
Steamer 60 122 11 50 22
Zeile 60 119 10 51 20

Buxton is penciled in as the lead-off man and everyday CF. In 46 MLB games in 2015, the speedster hit a paltry .209 with a .250 OBP. His 31.9% strikeout rate didn't help. In 2016, he should be able to see the ball better at the plate and establish himself as one of the game's premier table-setters.

RF Miguel Sano

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 68 111 26 76 4
Steamer 77 128 31 89 4
Zeile 82 130 31 87 4

If Sano can build on the 18 homers and 52 RBIs he hit in just 80 games last season, everyone in the lineup will flourish. The hope is that his offense can make up for his shaky defense now that Byung-ho Park is primed to take over DH duties. He has a chance to instantly become the team's MVP.

DH Byung-ho Park

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 80 147 27 84 6
Steamer 49 86 20 53 5
Zeile 59 104 22 65 5

It's hard to project Park's stats based off his performance in Seoul, but for what it's worth, he posted back-to-back 50-HR seasons and four straight 100-RBI campaigns. Depending on the trajectory of Kepler and the fielding of Sano, Park may have some internal competition for PAs at DH.

Starters

RHP Phil Hughes

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 26 167 129 16 4.10
Steamer 32 198 133 30 4.20
Zeile 32 192 135 26 4.21

Hughes is the de facto Opening Day starter and will often keep the score close while the young offense begins to take shape. He has reached 16 wins in every season in which he's pitched 175 innings. His upside is low but he's still a solid deep-rotation innings-eater in 10-team leagues.

RHP Ervin Santana

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 23 141.2 104 43 4.51
Steamer 31 192 146 59 4.34
Zeile 31 177 140 55 4.15

Santana missed the first half of 2015 because of a PED suspension and wasn't exactly lights-out in the 108 innings he did pitch, posting a 4.00 ERA. But like Hughes, Santana fills a role as someone who can pitch 175-plus innings, and should reach 15 wins with a decent amount of run support.

RHP Kyle Gibson

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 30 176.1 126 57 3.86
Steamer 29 173 120 56 4.15
Zeile 29 184 127 60 4.16

The fun never stops in the Twin Cities when Gibson takes the mound. He had a bit of good BABIP luck in 2015, which resulted in a 3.84 ERA over 194.2 IP. His win totals should only rise, but with a 53.4% groundball rate over three seasons and a career high of 6.70 K/9, he's not going to overpower batters.

RHP Ricky Nolasco

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 19 105.2 81 26 4.94
Steamer 18 100 72 26 4.34
Zeile 18 125 95 32 4.75

Nolasco made just eight starts in 2015; his record (5-2) was decent, but his ERA (6.75) was not. Advanced stats like opponents' BABIP (a huge .392) and fielding-independent pitching (3.51) point to a better pitcher than what the actual results showed, but he'll only be as useful as he is healthy. He's roster-filler in AL-only leagues.

LHP Tommy Milone

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 26 148 114 40 4.62
Steamer 16 92 69 25 4.10
Zeile 16 106 77 30 4.16

The A's sold high on Milone after back-to-back 12-plus-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 and he has battled injuries since. He is still young enough to get healthy and turn in a solid effort but expect him to be challenged for a rotation spot by Tyler Duffey, who had a 3.10 ERA in 13 starts with the Twins last year.

Closer

LHP Glen Perkins

SOURCE IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 54.2 57 12 3.46
Steamer 65 64 17 3.22
Zeile 61 62 14 3.33

Perkins saved 32 games for the third year in a row despite falling apart late. In the first half, he posted a 1.21 ERA and a .188 BAA; those numbers ballooned to 7.32 and .356 in the second half. It's Perkins' job to lose, but the shelf life on middle-aged relievers can be precariously short.

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