Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: St. Louis Cardinals
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the St. Louis Cardinals (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Yadier Molina
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 41 | 128 | 7 | 58 | 3 |
Steamer | 40 | 108 | 7 | 45 | 2 |
Zeile | 42 | 116 | 6 | 49 | 2 |
Molina, despite his reputation for being injury-plagued, hasn't played fewer than 110 games since his rookie year. Coming off two thumb surgeries this offseason, he'll provide a reasonable batting average and RBI production, but projects more as a No. 2 catcher or a last-ditch No. 1 if you punt the category.
1B Matt Adams
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 36 | 91 | 11 | 50 | 2 |
Steamer | 44 | 98 | 15 | 54 | 2 |
Zeile | 34 | 77 | 11 | 40 | 2 |
Adams will likely platoon with Brandon Moss at 1B, but hitting from the left side - in a righty-heavy lineup - will find him in the starting lineup with more regularity. He's not a bad depth bat in NL-only leagues, but should be left alone on draft day in all but the deepest of mixed leagues. Keep an eye on him in case his pop develops into a 20-plus HR pace.
2B Kolten Wong
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 68 | 137 | 11 | 56 | 18 |
Steamer | 61 | 140 | 12 | 58 | 16 |
Zeile | 65 | 136 | 13 | 58 | 16 |
Wong's projections are generally unanimous. He'll give you a decent amount of steals with some minor pop. He's worth targeting in the middle rounds because of the 2B wasteland. He's guaranteed the starting job, should bat near the top of the lineup and won't feel much pressure even if he struggles.
3B Matt Carpenter
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 93 | 147 | 16 | 71 | 4 |
Steamer | 89 | 155 | 16 | 62 | 6 |
Zeile | 94 | 157 | 20 | 73 | 5 |
Carpenter hit for more power (28 HR), but kept his batting average pace from the year before. He'll carry a bit more value in leagues where he holds 2B eligibility. He likely won't match the home run total, but he'll do a little bit of everything from the leadoff spot or the two-hole.
SS Jedd Gyorko
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 56 | 120 | 18 | 74 | 1 |
Steamer | 58 | 132 | 14 | 64 | 3 |
Zeile | 61 | 142 | 16 | 69 | 2 |
Gyorko moves from a utility bench role into the starting shortstop job with the news that SS Jhonny Peralta could miss several months due to a torn ligament in his hand. He has proven power ability but it comes at the expense of his batting average. He's likely to hit near the bottom of the order, limiting his potential. Ruben Tejada could also sneak into the starting role, limiting Gyorko's value even further.
LF Matt Holliday
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 52 | 102 | 14 | 64 | 3 |
Steamer | 65 | 128 | 16 | 66 | 3 |
Zeile | 67 | 126 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
2015 was a disaster for Holliday. He landed on the DL multiple times and finished with four homers. His power seemingly evaporated. Projections don't look kindly on him, but he could be a sneaky bounce-back candidate. Prior to 2015, he hadn't missed the 20-HR mark since 2005, his second season.
CF Randal Grichuk
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 64 | 115 | 19 | 59 | 6 |
Steamer | 59 | 121 | 20 | 70 | 6 |
Zeile | 63 | 119 | 22 | 67 | 6 |
Failing to re-sign Jason Heyward may not have benefited St. Louis, but Grichuk should see a spike in playing time. The power is real and he should be targeted in the middle rounds of NL-only drafts. He's not a bad late-round flier in mixed-league formats in case he breaks out.
RF Stephen Piscotty
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 68 | 143 | 13 | 65 | 7 |
Steamer | 58 | 129 | 12 | 56 | 7 |
Zeile | 63 | 132 | 15 | 66 | 5 |
Piscotty was a nice waiver wire addition midway through 2015 and should build upon his success. He'll hit for a solid average with some decent pop - though 20 HR seems high. He should be targeted in keeper and dynasty leagues while making a good depth option late in mixed leagues.
Starters
RHP Adam Wainwright
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 23 | 156 | 126 | 32 | 3.12 |
Steamer | 31 | 203 | 162 | 44 | 3.52 |
Zeile | 31 | 174 | 148 | 40 | 3.29 |
Wainwright may be a better play in 2017 as he works his way back from injury. His draft position has dropped, however, and people are probably sleeping on him. He doesn't walk anyone and boasts a respectable 7.6 K/9 for his career. He'll be undervalued in most drafts and worth a shot in the middle rounds.
LHP Jaime Garcia
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 16 | 92.7 | 72 | 23 | 3.40 |
Steamer | 19 | 116 | 94 | 30 | 3.39 |
Zeile | 19 | 120 | 98 | 30 | 3.33 |
Garcia, injury risk extraordinaire, was easily plucked off waiver wires in 2015. Projections reveal low expectations in terms of how many starts he'll make; he hasn't topped 20 in a season since 2011. When healthy, he's been good-to-spectacular. Take him late in the draft, but keep an IR spot ready.
RHP Michael Wacha
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 26 | 154 | 137 | 49 | 3.51 |
Steamer | 29 | 173 | 153 | 53 | 3.70 |
Zeile | 29 | 182 | 164 | 57 | 3.47 |
Wacha labored down the stretch, posting a 7.88 ERA in five September starts with a lower K/9 than in any other month. Going into September, he had a 2.69 ERA. He never exceeded seven innings in any start, but he also never threw fewer than five before September. He'll put himself in line for wins. He's most valuable in NL-only leagues, but can be taken later on in mixed leagues.
RHP Mike Leake
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 28 | 176.7 | 114 | 44 | 3.77 |
Steamer | 32 | 201 | 135 | 52 | 3.98 |
Zeile | 32 | 191 | 137 | 52 | 3.96 |
Leake will be best deployed in H2H leagues. He should be drafted late, if at all, and not unless you've drafted several strikeout-heavy pitchers. He'll likely end up on waivers in deeper leagues and should only be deployed in favourable matchups where you need a win.
RHP Carlos Martinez
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 29 | 172.3 | 167 | 57 | 3.34 |
Steamer | 28 | 159 | 157 | 56 | 3.48 |
Zeile | 28 | 167 | 177 | 58 | 3.15 |
Armed with electric stuff and questionable command, Martinez notched a 9.2 K/9 in 2015 over 179.2 IP. He should be firmly locked in as a starter after bouncing between the rotation and bullpen since his debut in 2013. He's mixed-league viable and especially attractive in keeper leagues.
Closer
RHP Trevor Rosenthal
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 74.7 | 97 | 29 | 2.53 |
Steamer | 65 | 80 | 25 | 2.85 |
Zeile | 66 | 85 | 27 | 2.77 |
If his arm doesn't fall off from being overworked, Rosenthal should strike out a ton and pick up a boatload of saves. He finished second in the majors last season with 48. He should be lights out early, but based on trends, don't hesitate to trade him if his usage balloons. He could be a sell-high candidate before mid-season.
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