Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Boston Red Sox
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Boston Red Sox (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Blake Swihart
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 48 | 102 | 6 | 41 | 5 |
Steamer | 35 | 82 | 5 | 36 | 4 |
Zeile | 39 | 90 | 6 | 38 | 4 |
Despite the fact that Swihart should be with the team from Opening Day on, his projections don't show much improvement from the counting stats he posted in 84 games as a rookie in 2015 (five home runs, 31 RBI). Still, the strong end to his season will likely be enough to make him a mid-round selection given the lack of depth at catcher.
1B Hanley Ramirez
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 58 | 117 | 13 | 67 | 12 |
Steamer | 61 | 121 | 18 | 67 | 7 |
Zeile | 65 | 126 | 20 | 68 | 9 |
Ramirez hasn't played close to a full season in three years, but had 19 home runs and 53 RBI in 105 games in 2015. A career-low OBP of .291 should creep closer to his lifetime average of .367. It was a forgettable first season in Boston, but a move to first base should alleviate last year's misadventures in the field. He's a decent buy-low candidate as a mid-round pick.
2B Dustin Pedroia
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 57 | 134 | 9 | 51 | 7 |
Steamer | 70 | 143 | 11 | 60 | 6 |
Zeile | 65 | 135 | 11 | 56 | 6 |
Injuries are the biggest concern with Pedroia, as he's missed significant time in each of the past two seasons. His batting average and OBP have remained remarkably consistent through his career, but his counting stats, most notably RBI and SB, have been in decline. He's still excellent when healthy, and is a mid-round pick in most mixed leagues.
3B Pablo Sandoval
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 53 | 134 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
Steamer | 59 | 132 | 14 | 64 | 1 |
Zeile | 60 | 132 | 13 | 61 | 1 |
Sandoval had a lost first season in Boston, with all relevant counting and rate stats well below his career norms. Perhaps unsurprisingly, projections have him rebounding somewhat, and the ex-Giant will be a buy-low candidate as a mid-round selection.
SS Xander Bogaerts
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 74 | 174 | 12 | 73 | 8 |
Steamer | 79 | 172 | 16 | 79 | 7 |
Zeile | 76 | 173 | 12 | 72 | 7 |
After Bogaerts' breakout 2015, projections show an uptick in home runs, but a slight drop in RBI as well as his OBP and batting average, though he'll still provide strong support in all three categories. He's among the best fantasy shortstops despite being only 23, and will be an early pick in all formats.
LF Rusney Castillo
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 41 | 93 | 7 | 35 | 10 |
Steamer | 46 | 104 | 9 | 47 | 10 |
Zeile | 46 | 103 | 9 | 44 | 11 |
A much-improved third full MLB season is forecast for Castillo, who failed to offer much of anything fantasy-wise in 2015. He likely won't help in terms of batting average and OBP, but double digits in both home runs and steals are possible.
CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 64 | 117 | 12 | 59 | 8 |
Steamer | 49 | 96 | 9 | 46 | 6 |
Zeile | 47 | 90 | 9 | 43 | 6 |
Bradley ended 2015 better than he started it, but questions remain over his power and batting eye. Last year's .249 average and .335 OBP topped his young three-year career, but both marks still don't portend breakout fantasy potential. Bradley doesn't represent much more than a late-round gamble.
RF Mookie Betts
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 95 | 187 | 18 | 80 | 26 |
Steamer | 100 | 181 | 19 | 76 | 26 |
Zeile | 93 | 175 | 17 | 76 | 25 |
A terrific all-around fantasy contributor, Betts' OBP should increase somewhat from last season's .341. With power, speed and strong rate stats, the 23-year-old is an easy first- or second-round selection.
DH David Ortiz
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 52 | 120 | 30 | 89 | 0 |
Steamer | 74 | 129 | 25 | 83 | 1 |
Zeile | 81 | 133 | 30 | 86 | 1 |
Now 40, Ortiz's projections show a significant dip in RBI (he's had at least 103 in each of the last three seasons), though his power and rate stats shouldn't fall off too much. Big Papi may be eligible as a DH only, which hurts his fantasy stock somewhat, but remains a solid early-to-mid-round selection.
Starters
LHP David Price
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 30 | 209.3 | 211 | 39 | 3.35 |
Steamer | 32 | 215 | 219 | 44 | 2.96 |
Zeile | 32 | 211 | 215 | 41 | 2.90 |
Signed to be the team's ace, Price is coming off an excellent season split between Detroit and Toronto. His WHIP projects to be slightly worse than last year's mark of 1.08, but he should strike out better than one batter per inning and have an excellent walk rate. He's easily a top-10 fantasy starter.
RHP Clay Buchholz
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 21 | 126.7 | 109 | 35 | 3.91 |
Steamer | 28 | 167 | 143 | 45 | 3.65 |
Zeile | 28 | 156 | 135 | 42 | 3.75 |
Buchholz didn't pitch poorly in 18 starts in 2015, but his health makes him impossible to rely on, as he's never made more than 29 starts in any of his eight full seasons. Even if he's healthy, the projections forecast a significantly worse ERA than last year's 3.26. Buchholz is a late-round gamble only in mixed leagues.
RHP Rick Porcello
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 30 | 187.3 | 140 | 39 | 4.18 |
Steamer | 31 | 190 | 148 | 44 | 3.81 |
Zeile | 31 | 183 | 142 | 42 | 4.11 |
Porcello's debut season in Boston resulted in his worst ERA since 2010 (4.92) and the first time he failed to record at least 10 wins. Despite a typically solid walk rate, he still gave up well over a hit per inning, resulting in a weak WHIP. He did have a high BABIP, so as a predominately ground ball pitcher, some better luck in that regard could help improve his ERA.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 29 | 167.3 | 141 | 46 | 3.98 |
Steamer | 24 | 139 | 113 | 44 | 3.82 |
Zeile | 24 | 159 | 128 | 52 | 4.29 |
Rodriguez had a promising rookie season, making 21 starts and allowing just under one hit per inning while winning 10 games on a last-place team. His ERA projections vary, with the consensus showing a slight-to-moderate increase over last year's mark of 3.85. He'll open the season on the DL, with Steven Wright likely to fill his rotation spot for the time being.
RHP Joe Kelly
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 22 | 126.7 | 103 | 49 | 4.26 |
Steamer | 6 | 81 | 70 | 27 | 3.73 |
Zeile | 6 | 83 | 67 | 30 | 4.07 |
Kelly looks set to open the season in the rotation, though the Steamer and Zeile projections in particular forecast a relief role for the ex-Cardinal. Despite 10 wins in 25 starts last season, his WHIP and ERA marks offered no help fantasy-wise. As it stands, Kelly is worth a look in AL-only leagues based on his solid spring.
Closer
RHP Craig Kimbrel
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 59.7 | 82 | 23 | 2.72 |
Steamer | 65 | 86 | 24 | 2.63 |
Zeile | 62 | 87 | 23 | 2.45 |
Acquired from the Padres in the offseason, Kimbrel is expected to bump Koji Uehara (25 saves in 2015) to a set-up role. Though he's recorded at least 39 saves in each of his five full MLB seasons, his rate stats project to get slightly worse from 2015's marks. He's still an an elite fantasy closer, especially if his ERA can revert to the sub-2.00 figure it was between 2012 and 2014.
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