Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Detroit Tigers
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Detroit Tigers (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C James McCann
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 39 | 109 | 6 | 41 | 3 |
Steamer | 34 | 84 | 6 | 36 | 2 |
Zeile | 37 | 90 | 6 | 37 | 3 |
McCann's numbers don't reflect a fantasy stalwart, with little improvement projected for his second full season behind the dish. New backup catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia may supply better raw power, but won't help at all in batting average or OBP. McCann likely isn't more than a second catcher in most leagues.
1B Miguel Cabrera
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 71 | 151 | 24 | 88 | 2 |
Steamer | 86 | 162 | 26 | 92 | 2 |
Zeile | 94 | 173 | 27 | 94 | 2 |
There's almost nobody better in terms of OBP and batting average, though Cabrera's counting stats no longer project to approach the 40-home run, 130-RBI heights they hit from 2010 through 2013. He's still a first-round pick.
2B Ian Kinsler
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 85 | 164 | 12 | 72 | 11 |
Steamer | 81 | 160 | 14 | 66 | 10 |
Zeile | 79 | 164 | 14 | 68 | 11 |
Kinsler contributes in all categories, and has largely avoided injuries over the last handful of seasons. His power and steal numbers aren't quite what they were, but his rate stats are still serviceable. Kinsler remains one of the better options at his position.
3B Nick Castellanos
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 52 | 150 | 16 | 75 | 1 |
Steamer | 62 | 140 | 16 | 67 | 3 |
Zeile | 65 | 139 | 15 | 66 | 2 |
Castellanos' power numbers are solid, but his mediocre batting average and poor OBP remained nearly identical from 2014 to 2015. The projections show only moderate improvement in those rate stats, with more of the same expected in regards to his counting marks. He's an average fantasy 3B.
SS Jose Iglesias
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 42 | 110 | 3 | 28 | 9 |
Steamer | 50 | 124 | 4 | 45 | 13 |
Zeile | 52 | 127 | 3 | 43 | 12 |
Iglesias doesn't provide much in the way of counting stats, though in 2013 and 2015 (he missed all of 2014 due to injury) he recorded batting averages of .300 or better and OBPs of .347 or higher. Projections show a slight dip in those rate stats, as well as an increase in RBI when compared to the 23 he registered in 120 games last season.
LF Justin Upton
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 87 | 143 | 28 | 86 | 13 |
Steamer | 85 | 150 | 28 | 91 | 13 |
Zeile | 86 | 146 | 27 | 87 | 14 |
Signed from San Diego as a free agent, Upton's power numbers are expected to be around the same as what he's put up over the past few seasons, but there are questions about his base stealing - he registered 19 SB in 2015 after combining for 16 in 2013 and 2014. Despite striking out frequently, his OBP has always been serviceable. Upton is a top-20 outfielder.
CF Cameron Maybin
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 51 | 97 | 7 | 44 | 14 |
Steamer | 47 | 101 | 7 | 42 | 13 |
Zeile | 55 | 113 | 8 | 46 | 16 |
Maybin set career highs in HR (10) and RBI (59) with Atlanta last season, while also stealing 23 bases. Maybin's rate stats were also career bests, and are set to regress slightly. He'll miss the start of the season due to injury, but is a mid-round selection in mixed leagues for the counting stats he can provide. Anthony Gose, whose main asset is his speed (23 steals last season), looks set to fill in.
RF J.D. Martinez
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 83 | 159 | 35 | 98 | 5 |
Steamer | 78 | 151 | 28 | 91 | 4 |
Zeile | 82 | 155 | 31 | 93 | 4 |
Despite striking out more than once per game, Martinez's rate stats are nearly as strong as his HR and RBI production. A second stellar season in Detroit proved his 2014 emergence wasn't a fluke, and he's a safe bet as a top-15 outfielder and early-round pick.
DH Victor Martinez
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 50 | 125 | 18 | 79 | 1 |
Steamer | 63 | 137 | 15 | 69 | 1 |
Zeile | 61 | 129 | 15 | 62 | 1 |
Martinez' rate stats are projected to improve after a down 2015 (.245 BA, .301 OBP), though he likely won't approach the 32 home runs and 103 RBI he had back in 2014. He's a late-round selection given his DH-only status.
Starters
RHP Justin Verlander
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 26 | 164.3 | 141 | 47 | 3.89 |
Steamer | 31 | 195 | 161 | 41 | 3.80 |
Zeile | 31 | 195 | 162 | 57 | 3.81 |
For the first time as a major-league regular, Verlander failed to make at least 30 starts, only managing 20 in 2015 after missing time at the start of the season. His strikeout rate isn't what it once was, and his WHIP is expected to decline from last season's excellent 1.09. He's still a solid, mid-tier starter.
RHP Jordan Zimmermann
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 30 | 181.3 | 137 | 35 | 4.02 |
Steamer | 32 | 200 | 148 | 41 | 3.86 |
Zeile | 32 | 201 | 160 | 39 | 3.60 |
Signed from Washington, Zimmermann's ERA and WHIP are projected to be around last season's levels, and he may get an improvement on his 13 wins, as well. He's made 32 or more starts in each of the last four seasons, and typically boasts a strong walk rate. He's a top-20 or so starting pitcher.
RHP Anibal Sanchez
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 24 | 144 | 134 | 43 | 3.94 |
Steamer | 28 | 167 | 142 | 47 | 3.87 |
Zeile | 28 | 161 | 141 | 46 | 4.02 |
Sanchez' ERA should improve significantly from last season's 4.99, but his biggest problem from a fantasy perspective is that he's missed chunks of time due to injury over the past two seasons. He'll provide good value if he can remain healthy, but at least one extended absence can be expected.
RHP Mike Pelfrey
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 21 | 112.7 | 60 | 36 | 4.95 |
Steamer | 23 | 126 | 71 | 38 | 4.68 |
Zeile | 23 | 137 | 75 | 42 | 4.55 |
Pelfrey's not worthy of being drafted in mixed leagues, as he's essentially been hurt for two of his last four seasons, with ugly ERA and WHIP figures in the two healthy years. Even if he can avoid the DL, his numbers won't help most fantasy teams.
LHP Daniel Norris
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 28 | 145.7 | 125 | 61 | 4.45 |
Steamer | 24 | 132 | 110 | 54 | 4.30 |
Zeile | 24 | 129 | 114 | 53 | 4.17 |
Norris is expected to carve out a role in the rotation in his first full year in the majors. The projections forecast a worse ERA than what he produced in a small sample of 13 starts in 2015 (3.75), and his walk rate looks like it will be the worst among Tigers starters. Still, as a late-round pick, he could surprise.
A back injury will force him to open the season on the DL, with Shane Greene set to fill in.
Closer
RHP Francisco Rodriguez
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 48.7 | 48 | 11 | 3.33 |
Steamer | 65 | 58 | 19 | 3.78 |
Zeile | 61 | 60 | 16 | 3.61 |
Signed as a free agent from Milwaukee, Rodriguez should solidify a Tigers bullpen that blew 25 saves last season, tied for third-most in baseball. His WHIP and ERA aren't expected to remain at their 2015 levels (0.86 WHIP, 2.21 ERA), but Rodriguez should still strike out around one batter per inning and rack up the saves.
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