Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Chicago Cubs
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Chicago Cubs (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Miguel Montero
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 38 | 92 | 12 | 54 | 0 |
Steamer | 34 | 73 | 9 | 37 | 2 |
Zeile | 41 | 79 | 11 | 40 | 2 |
Montero will be spelled by David Ross, but should see the majority of the starts. He'll occasionally bat high enough in the order to see RBI opportunities, but isn't a good enough hitter to capitalize on them. He does have some pop, however, so consider him a low-end No. 2 in two-catcher leagues.
1B Anthony Rizzo
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 94 | 156 | 32 | 99 | 10 |
Steamer | 92 | 154 | 32 | 99 | 10 |
Zeile | 95 | 152 | 31 | 93 | 11 |
Rizzo is in the conversation for the No. 2 first baseman overall, and will likely go at the back end of the first round in 10- and 12-team leagues. He's a lock for 90 runs and 90 RBIs if healthy, with 30-homer pop and enough stolen bases to earn the edge over Miguel Cabrera and Jose Abreu.
2B Ben Zobrist
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 76 | 133 | 14 | 56 | 7 |
Steamer | 70 | 128 | 12 | 54 | 6 |
Zeile | 70 | 130 | 12 | 57 | 6 |
Zobrist is by no means a statistical marvel, but his multi-position eligibility makes him the ultimate fantasy Swiss Army Knife. He'll hit high in a loaded Cubs batting order, giving him terrific run-scoring potential without hurting any of his other counting stats. He's a solid starting middle infielder in most leagues.
3B Kris Bryant
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 94 | 148 | 29 | 106 | 14 |
Steamer | 87 | 150 | 31 | 96 | 11 |
Zeile | 91 | 150 | 31 | 98 | 12 |
Bryant is a sure-fire second-rounder in standard drafts after an impressive rookie campaign. He may not yet be on the same level as Josh Donaldson or Nolan Arenado, but he isn't far away. He'll be locked into the No. 4 spot in the batting order and has a great opportunity to knock in over 100 runs.
SS Addison Russell
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 61 | 116 | 14 | 59 | 7 |
Steamer | 56 | 119 | 14 | 60 | 9 |
Zeile | 61 | 124 | 15 | 60 | 7 |
You could do worse than Russell as your starting shortstop, but he's probably better used as a utility middle infielder or a bench option in shallower leagues. Russell has better-than-average power for the position, but will hit low in the order - hampering his counting stats across the board.
LF Kyle Schwarber
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 98 | 128 | 32 | 100 | 4 |
Steamer | 73 | 125 | 25 | 76 | 5 |
Zeile | 76 | 127 | 27 | 80 | 5 |
In leagues where Schwarber is catcher-eligible, he should be the No. 2 backstop off the board behind Buster Posey. He'll likely hit fifth in the order, which means fewer pitches to hit - but that should also mean more RBI opportunities. You'll have to swallow a low BA, but he's a fourth-round pick.
CF Jason Heyward
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 85 | 149 | 17 | 66 | 18 |
Steamer | 91 | 164 | 18 | 72 | 18 |
Zeile | 86 | 160 | 16 | 69 | 19 |
Heyward's impact will be far more significant in real life than in fantasy, but he remains a capable second or third outfielder depending on league size. You're drafting him for his runs and steals potential rather than homers and RBIs, but he should put together a solid offensive year overall.
RF Dexter Fowler
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 76 | 126 | 13 | 43 | 14 |
Steamer | 76 | 125 | 12 | 50 | 15 |
Zeile | 78 | 124 | 13 | 45 | 15 |
Projections are nearly identical across the board for Fowler, who should score a boatload of runs atop a stacked Cubs lineup. He's a cinch for double-digit home runs and steals if he stays healthy, and should make for a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder in the majority of mixed-league formats.
Starters
RHP Jake Arrieta
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 30 | 186.1 | 194 | 50 | 2.56 |
Steamer | 32 | 208 | 219 | 56 | 2.95 |
Zeile | 32 | 204 | 211 | 54 | 2.80 |
How will Arrieta follow up a truly memorable performance from the second half of the 2015 season? Fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations reasonable, but Arrieta proved he belongs among the league's elite. Draft him confidently in the second round of standard leagues.
LHP Jon Lester
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZIPS | 30 | 199 | 194 | 46 | 2.98 |
Steamer | 32 | 204 | 202 | 50 | 3.16 |
Zeile | 32 | 204 | 201 | 50 | 3.23 |
Lester's 2015 performance was overshadowed by Arrieta's second-half brilliance, but the veteran left-hander was sensational. His ERA and record may keep owners away, but he remains a top-level strikeout pitcher with superb control. He's a solid SP2 in the majority of mixed formats.
RHP John Lackey
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZIPS | 28 | 183 | 156 | 42 | 3.34 |
Steamer | 31 | 193 | 164 | 48 | 3.68 |
Zeile | 31 | 194 | 162 | 48 | 3.69 |
Lackey takes his talents to the Windy City, where he'll slot in as an innings-eating No. 3 option. He likely won't repeat his resurgent 2015 showing, but he should be good for 160+ strikeouts and solid rate stats. He's an SP4 in 12-team leagues, and an SP5 in 10-team configurations.
RHP Kyle Hendricks
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZIPS | 28 | 159.2 | 125 | 40 | 3.61 |
Steamer | 29 | 166 | 139 | 41 | 3.50 |
Zeile | 29 | 167 | 141 | 40 | 3.64 |
Hendricks is a luxury most teams don't have - a No. 4 option good enough to be a No. 3 or even a No. 2 on some teams. From a fantasy standpoint, owners should expect a solid K rate and strong peripherals; Hendricks is a consistent, low-risk SP6 in season-long leagues.
RHP Jason Hammel
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZIPS | 25 | 144.1 | 125 | 39 | 3.93 |
Steamer | 28 | 157 | 144 | 41 | 3.76 |
Zeile | 28 | 164 | 153 | 43 | 3.73 |
Hammel slides a step below Hendricks in fantasy by virtue of a slightly higher ERA - otherwise, the two are nearly interchangeable. Hammel also faces shakier job certainty as the No. 5, but he's not your typical back-end rotation option. Draft him as an SP6 with solid K and BB rates.
Closer
RHP Hector Rondon
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZIPS | 64 | 62 | 18 | 2.95 |
Steamer | 65 | 65 | 20 | 3.14 |
Zeile | 68 | 67 | 19 | 2.97 |
Rondon isn't a Kimbrel- or Chapman-type shut down closer, but he should see as many save opportunities as he can handle for the powerhouse Cubs. It's unclear whether any other Chicago reliever will challenge for the ninth-inning role, but Rondon should be able to hang onto it regardless.
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