Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Miami Marlins
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Miami Marlins (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C J.T. Realmuto
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 53 | 112 | 7 | 47 | 10 |
Steamer | 39 | 103 | 8 | 45 | 9 |
Zeile | 45 | 106 | 8 | 46 | 9 |
Realmuto is in line to see the majority of starts behind the plate; he was serviceable in his rookie season, approaching 10-10 territory while not striking out a ton. He's a borderline starter in 12-team leagues, but has value as a No. 2 in two-catcher leagues or as a solid top option in NL-only drafts.
1B Justin Bour
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 53 | 121 | 19 | 67 | 2 |
Steamer | 55 | 118 | 18 | 64 | 2 |
Zeile | 57 | 115 | 19 | 62 | 2 |
Projections are conservative for Bour despite a great rookie season that saw him post a .270/.316/.519 slash line with 23 home runs in 341 at-bats against right-handers. He'll once again be the majority end of a platoon with occasional starts versus lefties, and is worth a flier late in 12-team leagues.
2B Dee Gordon
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 81 | 165 | 3 | 40 | 53 |
Steamer | 76 | 170 | 3 | 44 | 51 |
Zeile | 78 | 170 | 3 | 44 | 52 |
Gordon is the National League's most consistent source of stolen bases, leading the Senior Circuit for a second straight season in 2015. He likely won't hit .333 again, but even a .290-.300 average should make him a cinch for 50 swipes again. He's a top-three 2B overall, and a solid second-round pick.
3B Martin Prado
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 58 | 149 | 9 | 61 | 3 |
Steamer | 54 | 133 | 9 | 54 | 2 |
Zeile | 58 | 139 | 10 | 56 | 2 |
Prado will likely fall victim to being an average offensive player at a position dominated by big bats. But in leagues where 10 games played at a position is the eligibility minimum, Prado can also be used as a 2B - and that increases his value significantly. Target him as a bench option in standard leagues.
SS Adeiny Hechavarria
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 56 | 143 | 4 | 49 | 7 |
Steamer | 41 | 123 | 4 | 44 | 6 |
Zeile | 47 | 129 | 4 | 45 | 7 |
Hechavarria is a whiz with the glove, but offers almost nothing to a fantasy lineup. His OBP is pedestrian, and fueled by a high walk rate - so he doesn't drive in a lot of runs. And he isn't much of a runner, having stolen just 25 bases - on 42 attempts - in parts of four seasons. Stay away.
LF Christian Yelich
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 80 | 147 | 10 | 51 | 18 |
Steamer | 75 | 151 | 12 | 56 | 16 |
Zeile | 75 | 154 | 10 | 58 | 18 |
Yelich established a career high in batting average last season, and should see the field enough - injuries aside - to set new career marks in a few other categories in 2016. His lack of pop is a hindrance, but he should score enough runs and steal enough bases to warrant a 12th- to 14th-round pick.
CF Marcell Ozuna
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 67 | 140 | 16 | 67 | 4 |
Steamer | 59 | 132 | 17 | 67 | 4 |
Zeile | 61 | 133 | 16 | 65 | 4 |
Rumors persist that Ozuna will be traded at some point this year - but until he is, he'll be a fixture in the middle of the Miami batting order. He has the skill set to rebound from a dreadful 2015, but expecting a repeat of his 23-homer, 85-RBI showing in 2014 is foolish. He's little more than waiver-wire fodder.
RF Giancarlo Stanton
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 72 | 115 | 34 | 83 | 7 |
Steamer | 84 | 134 | 38 | 96 | 7 |
Zeile | 89 | 136 | 39 | 97 | 8 |
Getting a full season out of Stanton is at the top of Marlins fans' wish lists - and that extends to his fantasy owners, as well. If he plays 150 games this season, Stanton should crush enough balls to wind up among the league leaders in homers and RBIs. He's a top-three OF and a no-doubt first-rounder.
Starters
RHP Jose Fernandez
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 26 | 147.2 | 171 | 37 | 2.75 |
Steamer | 29 | 181 | 214 | 51 | 2.77 |
Zeile | 29 | 179 | 213 | 50 | 2.69 |
Fernandez is the high-risk, high-reward starter fantasy owners are most conflicted about. While the talent is unmistakeable, he's still less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery and will almost certainly be on an innings limit. Still, if healthy, he's a top-five SP and a sure-fire second-round pick.
LHP Wei-Yin Chen
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 29 | 174 | 139 | 36 | 3.26 |
Steamer | 32 | 195 | 161 | 43 | 3.41 |
Zeile | 32 | 191 | 154 | 41 | 3.45 |
Chen comes to Miami via Baltimore, where he posted a combined 27-14 record with a 3.44 ERA over the past two seasons. His rates shouldn't change much, though his win probability will likely take a minor hit with the move to the Marlins. Chen is a decent SP5 or SP6 in standard mixed drafts.
RHP Tom Koehler
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 27 | 164 | 121 | 65 | 4.17 |
Steamer | 29 | 173 | 128 | 66 | 4.38 |
Zeile | 29 | 181 | 134 | 70 | 4.21 |
Koehler comes into the season as the Marlins' likely No. 3 starter, but that might not last long. His K/9 rate lags well behind the league standard, and his walk rate is cause for concern, as well. Koehler should be left on the waiver wire in all league formats.
RHP Jarred Cosart
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 24 | 132 | 91 | 57 | 3.89 |
Steamer | 23 | 128 | 95 | 56 | 4.19 |
Zeile | 23 | 138 | 95 | 61 | 3.95 |
Cosart is in line for a larger role after making just 13 big-league starts in 2015. He struggled mightily, and will need to see marked improvement in his K and BB rates in order to be fantasy relevant. Don't count on it happening; he should be left undrafted in all formats except for deep dynasty leagues.
RHP David Phelps
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 16 | 104.2 | 83 | 35 | 4.04 |
Steamer | 16 | 92 | 68 | 31 | 4.09 |
Zeile | 16 | 114 | 85 | 39 | 4.36 |
Who actually occupies the No. 5 spot in the Miami rotation likely won't be decided until well into the spring. Phelps may have the inside track, but he'll see plenty of competition from Brad Hand and Adam Conley. Regardless of how things shake out, none of the candidates are worth drafting.
Closer
RHP A.J. Ramos
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 67.1 | 80 | 33 | 2.81 |
Steamer | 65 | 73 | 29 | 3.33 |
Zeile | 64 | 73 | 30 | 2.98 |
Ramos likely would have faced competition for the ninth-inning job from Carter Capps prior to Capps' season-ending arm injury. If he can hang onto the job, Ramos is a sure bet to exceed a strikeout per inning, though he'll need to curtail the free passes. Draft him as a middle-of-the-pack closer.
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