Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Yasmani Grandal
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 44 | 75 | 14 | 50 | 1 |
Steamer | 46 | 85 | 14 | 49 | 2 |
Zeile | 50 | 84 | 15 | 47 | 2 |
Injury concerns are pushing Grandal down below the top-10 catchers in fantasy. He projects as a low-end C1, though should be owned in two-catcher leagues. His hard-hit rate dropped from 35.8% to 30% in 2015, and a HR/flyball rate of 16.3% suggests that his power might be a mirage but his solid OBP is legit.
If he's not yet recovered from shoulder surgery in time for Opening Day, A.J. Ellis should start, though isn't fantasy-relevant.
1B Adrian Gonzalez
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 70 | 145 | 22 | 97 | 1 |
Steamer | 75 | 152 | 24 | 84 | 1 |
Zeile | 80 | 154 | 25 | 84 | 1 |
Gonzalez is pegged as the 11th-best 1B in the majors entering 2016, and could wind up finishing even higher if the top of the batting order produces in front of him. His value comes from playing 156 or more games in 10 straight seasons; that said, continued good health is hard to count on in his age-34 season.
2B Howie Kendrick
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 64 | 145 | 9 | 62 | 8 |
Steamer | 55 | 132 | 9 | 51 | 6 |
Zeile | 67 | 150 | 9 | 58 | 8 |
The newly re-signed Kendrick isn't a sexy pick and might not be drafted in shallower formats. He's an aging 2B but still contributes at an above-average level in BA, OBP, RBI, R, SB, with the potential to hit 10 HR over a full season. If he bats second, he deserves some mixed-league love.
3B Justin Turner
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 64 | 145 | 9 | 62 | 8 |
Steamer | 57 | 122 | 12 | 55 | 5 |
Zeile | 63 | 130 | 13 | 59 | 6 |
Turner should have eligibility at both corner infield positions, which will give his owners some flexibility. He started pulling the ball more after a 2014 season where he sported an absurd .404 BABIP and hit the ball to all fields, which is why his rate stats fell back to earth. He's a safe late-round pick.
SS Corey Seager
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 80 | 158 | 20 | 87 | 5 |
Steamer | 68 | 144 | 17 | 66 | 5 |
Zeile | 70 | 145 | 17 | 68 | 5 |
While fellow freshmen Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor broke into the league earlier and wowed with their poise, Seager had to wait until September to see everyday ABs. With his power potential over a full season at a weak position, he could be the third SS off the board. If he slides past the sixth round, he's a steal.
LF Carl Crawford
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 41 | 78 | 6 | 33 | 11 |
Steamer | 25 | 61 | 5 | 26 | 8 |
Zeile | 41 | 89 | 7 | 36 | 14 |
With Andre Ethier expected to be out until June, Crawford should be the opening day starter. Granted, Crawford's own injury issues in recent years are well known, though could offer short-term help in runs and stolen bases if he hits atop the order as expected. He'll likely be a late-round pick in mixed leagues with at least a short-term role secured.
CF Joc Pederson
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 70 | 106 | 23 | 62 | 12 |
Steamer | 71 | 113 | 24 | 67 | 12 |
Zeile | 79 | 114 | 26 | 70 | 12 |
Depending on who you ask, Pederson is either a top-100 player or vastly overrated. His average draft position in mocks has him going between the 14th and 18th rounds in mixed leagues. He has added value in leagues that count OBP, and has one of the highest raw power tools in the game.
RF Yasiel Puig
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 75 | 140 | 19 | 75 | 9 |
Steamer | 77 | 144 | 22 | 75 | 10 |
Zeile | 77 | 142 | 20 | 73 | 9 |
Puig's career season averages projected over 162 games have him as a .293 hitter with 23 HR and 12 SB, which are in line with the conservative projections listed above. His maturity issues make him a high-risk pick with extremely high upside. If Puig falls past the eighth round, he's a steal.
Starters
LHP Clayton Kershaw
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 31 | 215 | 265 | 41 | 2.01 |
Steamer | 32 | 217 | 268 | 44 | 2.08 |
Zeile | 32 | 216 | 265 | 44 | 2.13 |
What more can be said about the Dodgers' ace? Kershaw begins each season as the odds-on favorite to capture the NL Cy Young Award and has made at least 31 starts in six of his last seven seasons. He's coming off a season in which he struck out 301 batters, a feat that has only been topped by Randy Johnson (three times) and Curt Schilling since 2000.
LHP Scott Kazmir
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 29 | 168 | 162 | 45 | 3.37 |
Steamer | 29 | 174 | 158 | 49 | 3.59 |
Zeile | 29 | 171 | 153 | 50 | 3.56 |
After 11 years in the AL, Kazmir will make his NL debut. He posted the best ERA of his career (3.10) last season, although his K/9 rate dropped for the second straight year. He'll benefit from not having to face a DH every time through the order and he should easily reach double-digit wins with a good Dodgers team.
RHP Kenta Maeda
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 26 | 177 | 162 | 42 | 3.20 |
Steamer | 29 | 178 | 153 | 41 | 3.55 |
Zeile | 26 | 155 | 130 | 38 | 3.55 |
There isn't a lot of data on the 27-year-old Japanese import but the general consensus is that Maeda is nowhere near the quality of pitcher that Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka were when they came to the MLB. The high-end comp is an Aaron Nola profile - low velocity but good vertical movement. At best, he's worthy of a late-round flyer.
LHP Alex Wood
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 27 | 168.1 | 139 | 49 | 3.74 |
Steamer | 28 | 192 | 153 | 57 | 3.71 |
Zeile | 25 | 148 | 120 | 43 | 3.61 |
Wood had been penciled in as the staff's fifth starter, and a lengthy injury absence to incumbent SP Brett Anderson certainly strengthens his claim. Mike Bolsinger will likely also earns starts while Hyun-Jun Ryu recovers. Both are sold NL-only plays, while Wood has deep mixed-league value if he can lock down his role with a strong start to the season.
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 22 | 125.1 | 105 | 29 | 3.52 |
Steamer | 16 | 94 | 79 | 23 | 3.42 |
Zeile | 16 | 115 | 95 | 28 | 3.62 |
Ryu missed the entire 2015 season after having shoulder surgery in March. He began throwing again in October and hopes to be ready close to Opening Day. Given how successful he was in 360 innings prior to injury (2.97 FIP), he could be a late-round steal in standard drafts, but he likely won't be active until May at the earliest.
Closer
RHP Kenley Jansen
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 63.2 | 96 | 15 | 2.26 |
Steamer | 65 | 84 | 17 | 2.44 |
Zeile | 64 | 91 | 16 | 2.46 |
Jansen is in the top tier of closers, a group that includes Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis. All are going around the eighth round in drafts and order is a matter of taste. Jansen's save potential fell with the departure of Zack Greinke, but the acquisitions of Kazmir and Maeda and the return of Ryu should offset the loss of the team's second ace.
HEADLINES
- Scheifele records hat trick, 4-point game as Jets topple Leafs
- GM Brown: Astros moving on from Bregman after stalled negotiations
- Edwards docked $75K for ripping refs in 3rd fine of season
- Steelers' Pickens returns to practice, hopeful to play vs. Chiefs
- Pierce cherishes win: Raiders don't care 'for anybody's draft projections'