Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Colorado Rockies
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Colorado Rockies (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Nick Hundley
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 32 | 84 | 9 | 40 | 3 |
Steamer | 38 | 94 | 11 | 44 | 5 |
Zeile | 41 | 97 | 10 | 43 | 4 |
Hundley should see a bump in usage with Michael McKenry (58 games behind the plate) departing in the offseason. The Rockies' seventh-ranked prospect, Tom Murphy, made it to the majors in 2015 and appears primed to step into a backup role but is seen as a defense-first catcher. Neither has value away from Coors Field.
1B Ben Paulsen
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 52 | 128 | 19 | 63 | 3 |
Steamer | 32 | 71 | 10 | 37 | 2 |
Zeile | 41 | 85 | 11 | 44 | 2 |
Paulsen appeared in 116 games as a 27-year-old rookie. With both Justin Morneau and Wilin Rosario gone, Paulsen will have an opportunity to tighten up his plate discipline and hold on to an everyday role. He could be a solid waiver claim if he can lower his 26.4% strikeout rate.
2B DJ LeMahieu
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 62 | 156 | 6 | 51 | 20 |
Steamer | 65 | 158 | 6 | 53 | 17 |
Zeile | 69 | 156 | 6 | 53 | 18 |
On average, LeMahieu is being valued as the 12th-best 2B in standard drafts, but for teams looking for cheap steals, it's worth noting that he trailed only Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve for SB at the position. His fly ball rate is well below league average, but playing 75-plus games at Coors Field will juice both his power and batting average.
3B Nolan Arenado
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 70 | 163 | 30 | 87 | 2 |
Steamer | 83 | 168 | 29 | 97 | 4 |
Zeile | 84 | 163 | 31 | 100 | 3 |
After hitting just 18 HRs in 111 games in 2014, Arenado changed his approach at the plate, swinging at more pitches. Although he made less contact, he added significant power, leading to 42 HRs in 2015. His BABIP of below .300 indicates that despite the power surge, Arenado might have been slightly unlucky. He's a first-round pick.
SS Trevor Story
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 57 | 120 | 18 | 63 | 17 |
Steamer | 36 | 76 | 9 | 37 | 9 |
Zeile | 41 | 81 | 10 | 40 | 10 |
With Jose Reyes set to face an indefinite suspension for domestic violence (his trial starts Opening Day), the 23-year-old Story, without a single major league at-bat to his name, looks to be the regular SS (Steamer and Zeile project him as a backup). He was a 20-HR, 20-SB player in the minors last year, but struck out frequently and had a merely adequate BA. His counting stats should be helped by Coors Field, though, and Story could be a bargain as a late-round pick.
LF Gerardo Parra
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 77 | 157 | 10 | 52 | 11 |
Steamer | 62 | 146 | 12 | 61 | 11 |
Zeile | 67 | 142 | 11 | 55 | 11 |
If Reyes is handed a long suspension, Parra could be moved up to the second spot in the order and reap significant benefits as a table-setter. As it is, Parra should end up hitting close to .300 with 10/10 homer/steal potential. He has an everyday spot after the Rockies traded Corey Dickerson.
CF Charlie Blackmon
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 73 | 166 | 16 | 60 | 30 |
Steamer | 82 | 159 | 15 | 61 | 31 |
Zeile | 84 | 160 | 16 | 64 | 32 |
Projections have Colorado's leadoff man stealing fewer bases - but they also factor in a DL stint that Blackmon might not need. He's nearly 30, so eventually the steals will taper off - but his ability, prominence in the order and quality of the bats behind him mean he likely won't fall past the third round.
RF Carlos Gonzalez
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 62 | 118 | 27 | 73 | 8 |
Steamer | 71 | 135 | 28 | 84 | 4 |
Zeile | 75 | 131 | 31 | 84 | 4 |
With the Rockies dealing both Tulowitzki and Dickerson in the last seven months, it's clear they're looking to rebuild around young potential. Gonzalez seems to be the next trade target, as he's coming off the first 150-game season of his career. If he is moved before the season starts, you can throw his stats out the window, while you watch him fall in mixed-league drafts.
Starters
LHP Jorge De La Rosa
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 26 | 143 | 123 | 57 | 4.22 |
Steamer | 31 | 184 | 161 | 72 | 4.28 |
Zeile | 31 | 180 | 155 | 71 | 4.21 |
If you're going to survive at Coors Field, you're going to have to be a strikeout wizard or an extreme ground ball pitcher. De La Rosa has lasted nearly 10 seasons in Colorado because he mixes in an above-average GB rate with a passable K/9. He has DFS value, especially in pitcher's parks like Petco and PNC Park.
RHP Jordan Lyles
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 19 | 106.1 | 69 | 37 | 4.66 |
Steamer | 21 | 117 | 83 | 40 | 4.62 |
Zeile | 21 | 128 | 96 | 50 | 4.90 |
Lyles also has an above-average GB rate and last season's fly ball rate of 24.5% was well below the MLB average of 35%. He will be lucky to post a sub-5.00 ERA on the season and can be ignored in all fantasy formats.
RHP Tyler Chatwood
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 10 | 52.2 | 38 | 19 | 4.61 |
Steamer | 13 | 74 | 61 | 23 | 4.11 |
Zeile | 13 | 120 | 98 | 39 | 4.37 |
Chatwood missed the entire 2015 season after elbow surgery on his throwing arm. His last healthy season was 2013, when he recorded a 3.15 ERA in 111.1 IP with an above-average FIP. He's a super-deep sleeper who might be afforded one more shot as a starter in the majors.
RHP Chad Bettis
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 25 | 138.1 | 114 | 48 | 4.55 |
Steamer | 26 | 151 | 124 | 53 | 4.43 |
Zeile | 26 | 159 | 136 | 58 | 4.40 |
Bettis has the potential to emerge as the best pitcher on the staff by season's end. He is expected to see a significant increase in innings and if he can pitch close to the 3.85 FIP he put up in 115 IP in 2015, he has the potential to win 10-plus games despite what should be a mediocre ERA and WHIP.
LHP Chris Rusin
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 25 | 152.1 | 84 | 45 | 5.32 |
Steamer | 21 | 119 | 73 | 36 | 4.64 |
Zeile | 21 | 104 | 67 | 32 | 4.99 |
Rusin is a sacrificial lamb to the bats of the NL West. Any of Rusin, Lyles or Chatwood could be demoted in favor of the organization's top prospect, right-hander Jon Gray. Gray has the best K/9 outlook of the Rockies' potential 2016 starters; with youth on his side and a sub-4.00 FIP, he should garner immense DFS interest when he plays on the road.
Closer
LHP Jake McGee
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 53.1 | 61 | 16 | 3.19 |
Steamer | 65 | 75 | 21 | 3.11 |
Zeile | 48 | 58 | 14 | 3.33 |
Fantasy owners shouldn't fear McGee's career 40.1% GB rate because he can come into a high-leverage situation and tally well over a strikeout per inning. The Rockies had 33 saves as a staff in 2015; McGee should ride his 95 mph fastball to 25 saves as the closer.
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