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Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Colorado Rockies

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Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Colorado Rockies (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):

Hitters

C Nick Hundley

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 32 84 9 40 3
Steamer 38 94 11 44 5
Zeile 41 97 10 43 4

Hundley should see a bump in usage with Michael McKenry (58 games behind the plate) departing in the offseason. The Rockies' seventh-ranked prospect, Tom Murphy, made it to the majors in 2015 and appears primed to step into a backup role but is seen as a defense-first catcher. Neither has value away from Coors Field.

1B Ben Paulsen

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 52 128 19 63 3
Steamer 32 71 10 37 2
Zeile 41 85 11 44 2

Paulsen appeared in 116 games as a 27-year-old rookie. With both Justin Morneau and Wilin Rosario gone, Paulsen will have an opportunity to tighten up his plate discipline and hold on to an everyday role. He could be a solid waiver claim if he can lower his 26.4% strikeout rate.

2B DJ LeMahieu

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 62 156 6 51 20
Steamer 65 158 6 53 17
Zeile 69 156 6 53 18

On average, LeMahieu is being valued as the 12th-best 2B in standard drafts, but for teams looking for cheap steals, it's worth noting that he trailed only Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve for SB at the position. His fly ball rate is well below league average, but playing 75-plus games at Coors Field will juice both his power and batting average.

3B Nolan Arenado

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 70 163 30 87 2
Steamer 83 168 29 97 4
Zeile 84 163 31 100 3

After hitting just 18 HRs in 111 games in 2014, Arenado changed his approach at the plate, swinging at more pitches. Although he made less contact, he added significant power, leading to 42 HRs in 2015. His BABIP of below .300 indicates that despite the power surge, Arenado might have been slightly unlucky. He's a first-round pick.

SS Trevor Story

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 57 120 18 63 17
Steamer 36 76 9 37 9
Zeile 41 81 10 40 10

With Jose Reyes set to face an indefinite suspension for domestic violence (his trial starts Opening Day), the 23-year-old Story, without a single major league at-bat to his name, looks to be the regular SS (Steamer and Zeile project him as a backup). He was a 20-HR, 20-SB player in the minors last year, but struck out frequently and had a merely adequate BA. His counting stats should be helped by Coors Field, though, and Story could be a bargain as a late-round pick.

LF Gerardo Parra

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 77 157 10 52 11
Steamer 62 146 12 61 11
Zeile 67 142 11 55 11

If Reyes is handed a long suspension, Parra could be moved up to the second spot in the order and reap significant benefits as a table-setter. As it is, Parra should end up hitting close to .300 with 10/10 homer/steal potential. He has an everyday spot after the Rockies traded Corey Dickerson.

CF Charlie Blackmon

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 73 166 16 60 30
Steamer 82 159 15 61 31
Zeile 84 160 16 64 32

Projections have Colorado's leadoff man stealing fewer bases - but they also factor in a DL stint that Blackmon might not need. He's nearly 30, so eventually the steals will taper off - but his ability, prominence in the order and quality of the bats behind him mean he likely won't fall past the third round.

RF Carlos Gonzalez

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 62 118 27 73 8
Steamer 71 135 28 84 4
Zeile 75 131 31 84 4

With the Rockies dealing both Tulowitzki and Dickerson in the last seven months, it's clear they're looking to rebuild around young potential. Gonzalez seems to be the next trade target, as he's coming off the first 150-game season of his career. If he is moved before the season starts, you can throw his stats out the window, while you watch him fall in mixed-league drafts.

Starters

LHP Jorge De La Rosa

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 26 143 123 57 4.22
Steamer 31 184 161 72 4.28
Zeile 31 180 155 71 4.21

If you're going to survive at Coors Field, you're going to have to be a strikeout wizard or an extreme ground ball pitcher. De La Rosa has lasted nearly 10 seasons in Colorado because he mixes in an above-average GB rate with a passable K/9. He has DFS value, especially in pitcher's parks like Petco and PNC Park.

RHP Jordan Lyles

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 19 106.1 69 37 4.66
Steamer 21 117 83 40 4.62
Zeile 21 128 96 50 4.90

Lyles also has an above-average GB rate and last season's fly ball rate of 24.5% was well below the MLB average of 35%. He will be lucky to post a sub-5.00 ERA on the season and can be ignored in all fantasy formats.

RHP Tyler Chatwood

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 10 52.2 38 19 4.61
Steamer 13 74 61 23 4.11
Zeile 13 120 98 39 4.37

Chatwood missed the entire 2015 season after elbow surgery on his throwing arm. His last healthy season was 2013, when he recorded a 3.15 ERA in 111.1 IP with an above-average FIP. He's a super-deep sleeper who might be afforded one more shot as a starter in the majors.

RHP Chad Bettis

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 25 138.1 114 48 4.55
Steamer 26 151 124 53 4.43
Zeile 26 159 136 58 4.40

Bettis has the potential to emerge as the best pitcher on the staff by season's end. He is expected to see a significant increase in innings and if he can pitch close to the 3.85 FIP he put up in 115 IP in 2015, he has the potential to win 10-plus games despite what should be a mediocre ERA and WHIP.

LHP Chris Rusin

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 25 152.1 84 45 5.32
Steamer 21 119 73 36 4.64
Zeile 21 104 67 32 4.99

Rusin is a sacrificial lamb to the bats of the NL West. Any of Rusin, Lyles or Chatwood could be demoted in favor of the organization's top prospect, right-hander Jon Gray. Gray has the best K/9 outlook of the Rockies' potential 2016 starters; with youth on his side and a sub-4.00 FIP, he should garner immense DFS interest when he plays on the road.

Closer

LHP Jake McGee

SOURCE IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 53.1 61 16 3.19
Steamer 65 75 21 3.11
Zeile 48 58 14 3.33

Fantasy owners shouldn't fear McGee's career 40.1% GB rate because he can come into a high-leverage situation and tally well over a strikeout per inning. The Rockies had 33 saves as a staff in 2015; McGee should ride his 95 mph fastball to 25 saves as the closer.

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