Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Washington Nationals
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Washington Nationals (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Wilson Ramos
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 35 | 92 | 13 | 57 | 0 |
Steamer | 40 | 93 | 14 | 47 | 1 |
Zeile | 45 | 102 | 15 | 50 | 1 |
Ramos is tabbed as the starting catcher, and should produce above-average power for the position. Unfortunately, he doesn't help you anywhere else - and he's projected to hit at the bottom of the order, which adversely impacts his counting stats. He's an average second option in two-catcher leagues.
1B Ryan Zimmerman
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 49 | 98 | 15 | 69 | 2 |
Steamer | 48 | 100 | 15 | 56 | 2 |
Zeile | 54 | 106 | 16 | 58 | 2 |
The projections are startlingly low for Zimmerman, who is expected to bat cleanup to start the season. While he has struggled with durability - playing just 156 games the past two seasons - he has remained modestly productive and could exceed 80 RBIs if he stays healthy. That is, however, a big "if".
2B Daniel Murphy
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 76 | 161 | 12 | 74 | 10 |
Steamer | 63 | 151 | 9 | 58 | 6 |
Zeile | 65 | 150 | 10 | 60 | 7 |
Murphy goes from Mets playoff hero to Nationals starting second baseman; his versatility adds a slight uptick in value, but there really isn't much to see here. The steals vanished last season, and likely won't return with Murphy hitting lower in the order. He's a backup in the majority of mixed leagues.
3B Anthony Rendon
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 67 | 122 | 13 | 52 | 6 |
Steamer | 76 | 142 | 15 | 61 | 6 |
Zeile | 73 | 141 | 14 | 61 | 6 |
Rendon went from fantasy darling to waiver-wire afterthought following an injury-riddled 2015 campaign; his power disappeared, as did his speed. Expect some bounce-back in 2016, but a repeat of his 21-homer, 17-steal 2014 season seems unlikely. That said, he's still a decent pick in rounds 7-8.
SS Danny Espinosa
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 49 | 88 | 11 | 37 | 7 |
Steamer | 27 | 60 | 7 | 29 | 4 |
Zeile | 35 | 69 | 9 | 34 | 5 |
Espinosa might be the first player this season to lose his starting role; Trea Turner is banging down the door, and is a vastly superior player. Even if Espinosa somehow manages to collect 300+ at-bats, he won't contribute enough to be worth a draft pick. Don't even consider him.
LF Jayson Werth
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 55 | 93 | 13 | 52 | 4 |
Steamer | 50 | 102 | 12 | 52 | 3 |
Zeile | 55 | 105 | 14 | 52 | 4 |
The days of Werth as a valuable multi-category contributor are long gone. He regressed into the muck last season, dipping below his previous low OBP by nearly 30 points. Werth also turns 37 in May. He shouldn't be owned in any season-long fantasy format.
CF Ben Revere
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 75 | 166 | 1 | 36 | 34 |
Steamer | 65 | 161 | 2 | 42 | 28 |
Zeile | 67 | 167 | 2 | 48 | 32 |
Revere takes over leadoff duties for the Nationals, and could be in for a solid year. He gets on base enough to approach the 80-run plateau, and should have a good shot at 30+ steals. His complete lack of pop restricts his value, but he's a suitable OF3 in deep leagues and a nice OF4 in shallower formats.
RF Bryce Harper
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 93 | 147 | 34 | 79 | 5 |
Steamer | 95 | 156 | 34 | 99 | 7 |
Zeile | 103 | 163 | 35 | 101 | 7 |
Harper unleashed his potential last season, leading the majors in OBP (.460) and OPS (1.109) while belting 42 home runs en route to the NL MVP award. While the power may regress somewhat, he's the real deal - and worth the second or third overall pick in the majority of mixed-league drafts.
Starters
RHP Max Scherzer
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 31 | 212.1 | 249 | 57 | 2.67 |
Steamer | 32 | 212 | 253 | 45 | 2.71 |
Zeile | 32 | 211 | 253 | 45 | 2.97 |
Scherzer was a buzzsaw last season, finishing with a career-best 276 strikeouts and leading the majors with three complete-game shutouts. His win total will depend on whether he gets some run support this season, but make no mistake: He's a top-3 pitcher and worthy of a second-round pick.
RHP Stephen Strasburg
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 29 | 169.2 | 194 | 37 | 2.92 |
Steamer | 31 | 185 | 210 | 42 | 2.94 |
Zeile | 31 | 180 | 212 | 40 | 3.22 |
The issue with Strasburg is health: After leading the NL with 34 starts in 2014, neck, back and oblique injuries limited him to just 23 appearances last season. If he can make it to the 30-start plateau, he's a lock to exceed 200 strikeouts with terrific rate stats. Draft him as an SP2 in mixed leagues.
LHP Gio Gonzalez
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 28 | 162.2 | 160 | 63 | 3.43 |
Steamer | 29 | 170 | 160 | 62 | 3.74 |
Zeile | 29 | 174 | 171 | 64 | 3.84 |
Gonzalez has seen his ERA rise every season since 2012, though he has posted solid FIPs in back-to-back years and might benefit from what could be a stronger Washington defense. Walks are always a concern for Gonzalez, but he's a solid SP5-6 in standard mixed leagues.
RHP Tanner Roark
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 20 | 141.1 | 96 | 33 | 3.69 |
Steamer | 24 | 142 | 100 | 35 | 4.14 |
Zeile | 24 | 143 | 102 | 34 | 3.90 |
Roark should find himself back in a full-time starting role in 2016 after making 12 starts and 28 relief appearances last season. His low K rate ruins most of his fantasy value, though he's a good bet to repeat his 15-win 2014 season if he makes enough starts. Target him as a SP7-8 in standard leagues.
RHP Joe Ross
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 25 | 135.1 | 112 | 39 | 3.86 |
Steamer | 23 | 129 | 108 | 39 | 3.92 |
Zeile | 23 | 152 | 132 | 45 | 4.03 |
Ross had a solid audition over 13 starts and three relief appearances as a rookie. Projections have his K rate dipping, which would hurt what little value he has as a fantasy starter. He's a longshot to make more than 25 starts this season, making him a matchups-dependent waiver-wire pickup.
Closer
RHP Jonathan Papelbon
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 56.2 | 49 | 12 | 3.02 |
Steamer | 65 | 57 | 17 | 3.61 |
Zeile | 65 | 59 | 14 | 2.83 |
Papelbon will enter the season as the Nats' ninth-inning option, making him a good bet to reach 30 saves even if he doesn't have a great year. Papelbon remains an elite closer, though his K rates have taken a major hit since 2012. He's an RP2 in 10-team leagues and a borderline RP1 in larger formats.
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