Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Francisco Cervelli
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 35 | 79 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
Steamer | 39 | 103 | 6 | 42 | 2 |
Zeile | 45 | 108 | 6 | 42 | 2 |
Cervelli doesn't have much in the way of power, but posted an excellent batting average (.295) and OBP (.370) in his first season as a Pirate. Those rate stats are his biggest fantasy assets, and while they're expected to decrease somewhat, Cervelli remains a solid late-round selection.
1B John Jaso
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 31 | 63 | 6 | 29 | 2 |
Steamer | 42 | 86 | 9 | 40 | 3 |
Zeile | 43 | 84 | 8 | 38 | 3 |
Signed to be Pittsburgh's starting first baseman, it'll be an unlikely bonus if Jaso also qualifies at catcher, as he never actually saw any time at the position last season, serving primarily as a DH in Tampa Bay. Despite solid rate stats, his lack of power means he'll be outclassed at his new position, and will be suitable for deep NL-only formats only. He'll likely platoon with Mike Morse, who's much better against left-handed hitters than Jaso.
2B Josh Harrison
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 63 | 126 | 8 | 42 | 14 |
Steamer | 65 | 151 | 10 | 56 | 15 |
Zeile | 59 | 136 | 8 | 52 | 13 |
A strong batting average (he's a career .284 hitter) and positional versatility (he may qualify at 2B, 3B and the corner outfield spots) are Harrison's hallmarks. Despite never having produced much power outside of 13 home runs in 2014, he's a solid late-round contributor.
3B Jung-ho Kang
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 60 | 112 | 16 | 61 | 5 |
Steamer | 55 | 121 | 15 | 62 | 6 |
Zeile | 63 | 131 | 16 | 65 | 6 |
Kang may be sidelined until April with a knee injury suffered last season, but was a solid contributor in nearly all rate and counting stats in his debut season. More of the same is expected, save for moderate drops in batting average and OBP. Kang should be eligible at SS and 3B, and makes for a solid mid-round selection. David Freese should fill in should Kang not be ready for opening day.
SS Jordy Mercer
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 43 | 110 | 7 | 43 | 3 |
Steamer | 41 | 108 | 8 | 46 | 3 |
Zeile | 37 | 91 | 7 | 37 | 3 |
Mercer offered decent rate stats in 2013 (.285 average, .336 OBP) and solid counting stats in 2014 (12 HR, 55 RBI) but failed to produce either in 2015, with his outlook for this season not looking especially promising. He's likely not worth drafting in most leagues.
LF Starling Marte
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 85 | 157 | 17 | 69 | 33 |
Steamer | 78 | 163 | 18 | 73 | 27 |
Zeile | 81 | 162 | 17 | 73 | 30 |
Marte's home runs and RBIs have increased in each of his four seasons, and he's always offered solid rate stats, with a career batting average of .283 and an OBP of .340. Without any real weaknesses, his combination of power, speed and batting eye make him an easy first or second round selection.
CF Andrew McCutchen
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 89 | 161 | 23 | 89 | 14 |
Steamer | 88 | 165 | 23 | 87 | 12 |
Zeile | 92 | 168 | 24 | 87 | 14 |
One of the best fantasy options around, McCutchen contributes strongly in nearly every counting and rate stat, though his 11 steals in 16 attempts represented a career low. Firmly in his prime, he's played at least 146 games in each of the past six seasons, and is a sure-fire first-round pick.
RF Gregory Polanco
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 82 | 144 | 12 | 63 | 25 |
Steamer | 77 | 151 | 14 | 58 | 26 |
Zeile | 77 | 148 | 12 | 59 | 27 |
The 6-foot-5 Polanco's power has been slow to develop, but he's projected to improve modestly on last season's nine home runs and 52 RBI. His steals help to make him a solid offensive contributor, and somewhat compensate for his middling average and OBP. He'll be an early round selection in 2016.
Starters
RHP Gerrit Cole
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 30 | 190 | 180 | 46 | 3.08 |
Steamer | 32 | 204 | 196 | 52 | 3.27 |
Zeile | 32 | 203 | 196 | 50 | 3.08 |
Cole will be among the first 10 starting pitchers taken, though his ERA is universally projected to rise from last season's 2.60. His WHIP should still rank among the best, and though victories are hard to predict, he won 19 of 32 starts last season.
LHP Francisco Liriano
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 28 | 166.3 | 175 | 65 | 3.19 |
Steamer | 31 | 185 | 192 | 69 | 3.32 |
Zeile | 31 | 177 | 187 | 70 | 3.26 |
Liriano hasn't posted an ERA below 3.38 in three full seasons in Pittsburgh, though generally fails to pitch deep into games (last season's 186.2 innings were his most since 2010) and posts high walk rates. He typically strikes out better than a batter per inning, though, and that's expected to continue this season. He's a mid-round selection in mixed leagues.
LHP Jeff Locke
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 28 | 162.7 | 123 | 61 | 4.15 |
Steamer | 26 | 148 | 113 | 53 | 4.02 |
Zeile | 26 | 159 | 120 | 59 | 4.19 |
Locke's ERA should improve from last season's 4.49 mark, but he gives up too many walks and hits to be a useful fantasy player. He's not worth drafting in mixed leagues.
LHP Jonathon Niese
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 25 | 157.7 | 105 | 45 | 4.05 |
Steamer | 28 | 165 | 105 | 46 | 4.06 |
Zeile | 28 | 170 | 113 | 49 | 3.95 |
Similar to Locke, Niese gives up too many hits and walks to be serviceable, though his ERA is projected to improve slightly from last year's mark of 4.13, set with the Mets. He could be a reclamation project in the vain of Liriano or A.J. Burnett, however, making him somewhat of a late-round gamble.
RHP Ryan Vogelsong
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 21 | 124 | 90 | 46 | 4.57 |
Steamer | 19 | 109 | 79 | 37 | 4.41 |
Zeile | 19 | 125 | 94 | 46 | 4.48 |
Back on the club he was with from 2001 to 2006, the 38-year-old Vogelsong has posted an ERA below 4.00 just twice in his career, with the last time being in 2012. He's not seen as likely to last the season in a starting role, and thus isn't worth drafting in most leagues.
Closer
RHP Mark Melancon
SOURCE | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 68 | 64 | 12 | 2.51 |
Steamer | 65 | 57 | 15 | 2.83 |
Zeile | 64 | 57 | 13 | 2.46 |
Melancon led baseball with 51 saves in 2015, and also posted his third straight season with a sub-1.00 WHIP. He could be among the first five relievers drafted in mixed leagues.
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