Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Tampa Bay Rays
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Tampa Bay Rays (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborskis; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Hank Conger
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 24 | 50 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
Steamer | 21 | 42 | 6 | 21 | 2 |
Zeile | 27 | 54 | 8 | 28 | 1 |
Conger is a veteran catcher who posted a career-high 11 home runs and 33 RBIs last season with the Astros. His modest numbers limit his fantasy value and he has no place in mixed leagues or most AL-only formats.
1B James Loney
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 40 | 127 | 7 | 48 | 3 |
Steamer | 31 | 80 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
Zeile | 40 | 110 | 6 | 41 | 2 |
Loney finished with four home runs over 388 plate appearances during an injury-shortened 2015 campaign. He's known as a defense-first player and his projected counting stats are quite weak for a first baseman. He presents no value in fantasy baseball and should be left alone.
2B Logan Forsythe
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 50 | 101 | 11 | 44 | 7 |
Steamer | 63 | 130 | 13 | 59 | 7 |
Zeile | 67 | 135 | 15 | 61 | 7 |
Forsythe's .804 OPS quietly led the Rays last season, but he was widely undervalued by most fantasy owners - and continues to be in 2016, with an ADP near the 18th round. An uptick in HRs and RBIs along with double-digit stolen bases can be expected this season. Batting in the fifth spot adds to his value as a superb buy-low candidate.
3B Evan Longoria
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 75 | 146 | 22 | 77 | 3 |
Steamer | 74 | 150 | 24 | 84 | 3 |
Zeile | 77 | 152 | 23 | 79 | 3 |
The perennial run producer of the Rays continues to attract fantasy owners, and with good reason. Longoria has gone under 20 homers and 70 RBIs just once throughout his career, in an injury-plagued 2012 season. Be confident drafting him in the 10th-to-11th round of mixed-league drafts and as early as the fifth round of AL-only leagues.
SS Brad Miller
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 62 | 121 | 13 | 54 | 10 |
Steamer | 51 | 105 | 11 | 51 | 9 |
Zeile | 49 | 101 | 11 | 45 | 9 |
Miller was acquired from the Mariners after batting .258 with a career-high 14 stolen bases in 2015. He will get around 450 plate appearances for Tampa Bay this year, but is curr and will be available in the later rounds of all formats if you need help at the SS position.
LF Corey Dickerson
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 48 | 102 | 17 | 47 | 5 |
Steamer | 51 | 108 | 15 | 56 | 5 |
Zeile | 59 | 121 | 18 | 62 | 4 |
Dickerson's injury-impacted 2015 numbers project out similar to his previous year statistics (24 HR, 76 RBIs). Those numbers are expected to take a small dip in Tampa Bay, but he owns a career .300 average and is an excellent gap hitter with speed. He's likely to spend some time as a DH, so you can draft him in rounds 9-11 with confidence.
CF Kevin Kiermaier
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 60 | 128 | 10 | 44 | 15 |
Steamer | 60 | 138 | 11 | 59 | 16 |
Zeile | 63 | 135 | 12 | 55 | 16 |
Unless your fantasy league counts defensive statistics, Kiermaier has little-to-no fantasy value. The league's premier outfield defender will get plenty of at-bats; with his speed, he may spend some time at the top of the Rays' order. If you need runs or stolen bases in the later rounds of your draft, he's your guy.
RF Steven Souza Jr.
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 54 | 86 | 15 | 43 | 14 |
Steamer | 59 | 109 | 19 | 57 | 15 |
Zeile | 69 | 112 | 21 | 59 | 17 |
Souza Jr. hit 10 homers from Opening Day to May 31 last season, becoming a stellar waiver-wire addition. But injuries and ineffectiveness hampered him the rest of the way. An increase in production could be in the cards if he emerges as the starter; the Rays want to develop him into an everyday starter. He'll be available in the later rounds of all draft formats.
DH Logan Morrison
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 48 | 96 | 13 | 50 | 6 |
Steamer | 50 | 97 | 15 | 52 | 6 |
Zeile | 47 | 95 | 15 | 49 | 6 |
Morrison has only reached the 20-homer plateau once, hitting 23 with Miami in 2013. The left-handed batter has struggled to stay in the lineup since then due to injuries and struggles at the plate. He should be left undrafted.
Starters
RHP Chris Archer
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 33 | 195.3 | 202 | 66 | 3.23 |
Steamer | 32 | 198 | 207 | 63 | 3.23 |
Ziele | 32 | 199 | 211 | 63 | 3.31 |
Archer has all the flash you want in a fantasy ace. He posted the second-most strikeouts in the MLB last year with 252, and had a sizzling 10.7 K/9 rate. Archer won't be on the board long, so nab him before the end of the fourth round in mixed leagues or someone else will.
RHP Jake Odorizzi
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 31 | 177.3 | 165 | 51 | 3.60 |
Steamer | 30 | 183 | 166 | 55 | 3.65 |
Ziele | 30 | 185 | 170 | 56 | 3.70 |
Can this be the year the former first-rounder turns his low-90s fastball into wins and strikeouts? Odorizzi posted a career-best 3.35 ERA in 168 innings in 2015; with added run support this season, the wins will come. Owners will draft him in the 10th-12th round of mixed-leagues and he will be one of the early second-tier pitchers off the board in AL-only drafts.
LHP Drew Smyly
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 22 | 118.7 | 121 | 33 | 3.64 |
Steamer | 28 | 160 | 155 | 50 | 3.32 |
Ziele | 28 | 160 | 159 | 47 | 3.32 |
Smyly's 2015 campaign was riddled with injuries, but he showed promise heading into 2016. Though owners may pass on him in the mid-rounds because of previous injury concerns, his 3.11 ERA in 12 starts can't be ignored. He should be drafted as a middle-to-late-round draft pick in all formats.
LHP Matt Moore
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 21 | 109 | 103 | 48 | 4.46 |
Steamer | 21 | 118 | 105 | 44 | 3.78 |
Ziele | 23 | 128 | 117 | 48 | 4.05 |
Moore returned from Tommy John surgery in 2015 and struggled in the early going, which led to a demotion to Triple-A Durham. He returned to Tampa Bay late in the season, winning four of six starts with a 2.97 ERA. Draft him from the 17th-20th round of mixed-leagues and in the middle rounds of AL-only drafts.
RHP Erasmo Ramirez
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 25 | 148 | 111 | 43 | 4.20 |
Steamer | 24 | 135 | 103 | 39 | 3.96 |
Ziele | 26 | 151 | 119 | 44 | 3.99 |
Ramirez was traded to the Rays from the Mariners just before the start of the 2015 season and posted 11 wins with a 3.75 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 27 starts. But what stood out was his 1.13 WHIP - a better mark than both Archer and Odorizzi registered. He can be drafted in the later rounds of all formats.
Closer
RHP Brad Boxberger
SOURCE | G | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 67 | 69 | 90 | 30 | 3.26 |
Steamer | 65 | 65 | 75 | 26 | 3.14 |
Ziele | 62 | 60 | 75 | 26 | 3.31 |
The good about Boxberger: he lead the AL in saves last season with 41. The bad: he posted a 3.71 ERA and blew six saves while registering an abysmal 1.37 WHIP. He recently underwent core muscle surgery and will be out until mid-May, paving the way for Danny Farquhar to take over the closer role in the interim. Nonetheless, the closing job is his when he returns and can be drafted as a late round IR-stash.
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