Fantasy Faceoff: Kris Bryant vs. Miguel Cabrera
In this latest Fantasy Faceoff post, the youth-versus-experience storyline is front and center.
At just 24, Kris Bryant is helping lead the next wave of superstar players, while Miguel Cabrera is a well-respected veteran who will turn 33 this season. The Cubs are up-and-coming, while the Tigers have been contenders for some time.
Overarching theme aside, Bryant and Cabrera are both great assets for any fantasy team. Considering their similar ADPs, there is a good chance fantasy owners with a pick between 12-18 may face a choice between the two.
Here's a look at their 5x5 numbers for 2015, a season in which Cabrera played 32 fewer games than Bryant due to injury:
HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryant | 26 | 87 | 99 | 13 | .275 |
Cabrera | 18 | 64 | 76 | 1 | .338 |
Each player has a significant one-category advantage. It's easy to see why Bryant leads in SBs; Cabrera has never been much of a runner. On the other hand, Cabrera dominates batting average as he has throughout his career. The category trade-off seems to level both players.
The Case for Kris Bryant
He's young, he's exciting, and his swing looks outstanding. Unfortunately, none of those are important fantasy factors, so we have to look elsewhere in Bryant's case - beginning with his power.
With 26 homers in 151 games last year, Bryant is clearly for real. His scouting report focuses on his power, and that report seems to be quite accurate. Going into 2016, Bryant is projected to hit around 30 homers and drive in 100+ runs. Sound like Miguel Cabrera? Considering his age and rookie numbers, it's fair to assume that Bryant has the higher ceiling.
The second reason to go with Bryant? Health.
Bryant handled a full MLB workload in his rookie season. Obviously, it is impossible to predict who will get hurt, in what fashion, and to what severity, but being eight years Cabrera's junior sways the argument in Bryant's favor.
On the flip side, Cabrera suffered a calf strain last year, which forced him to the disabled list. To be fair, it was the first time Cabrera had been on the DL in his career, but he'll likely be more prone to injury as he gets older.
The Case for Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera's career body of work speaks volumes. Aside from his rookie and 2014-15 seasons, Cabrera has hit 25 or more homers and driven in 100+ runs every single season. He was the MVP in 2012 and 2013 and has been the face of the Tigers since joining the team in 2008. Don't lose sight of Cabrera's proven ability simply because of age and his injury-shortened 2015 season.
There has been a drop in power, with Cabrera having hit just 43 combined home runs the past two seasons. But while the days of 35+ home runs are gone, 25-30 homers still makes for serviceable fantasy production.
The addition of Justin Upton to Detroit's lineup is something that should help maintain, if not increase, Cabrera's RBI total. With a 1-2 punch of Ian Kinsler and Upton ahead of him, Cabrera should frequently come to the plate with runners aboard. Last year, the Tigers used Anthony Gose and Kinsler as their 1-2 hitters, so the early portion of the lineup looks much more potent going into 2016.
Potential Upside or Established Consistency
For the conservative fantasy player, this is where Cabrera overtakes Bryant.
Bryant's ceiling is higher, but Cabrera will give you exactly what you paid for on draft day. Cabrera knows the grind of the regular season, the tactics of opposing pitchers, and anything else one can throw at him. Bryant is still learning on the job, while Cabrera is a seasoned veteran.
Cabrera is still going to provide a sky-high batting average, 25-30 home runs, and what should be 90 or more runs and RBIs. Having those numbers nearly locked into any fantasy lineup is a commodity that you can't find often. Take it wherever you can get it.
In contrast, Bryant's potential output is going to be where he wins over fantasy players. As mentioned, 30+ home runs and 100+ RBIs are attainable and even projected. Totals like those are probably out of Miggy's reach.
Like Cabrera, Bryant will also have some help from his teammates. The Cubs' lineup is as formidable as any in the majors, featuring Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and others. Elite company like that is hard to come by and easily puts Bryant in a great position to succeed.
Verdict
High-end production and reliability is a combination rarely found in any fantasy sport. Miggy may not hit for the power of old but he still provides elite production in all batting categories.
Though injury and age are fair concerns, they seem to be exaggerated. Again, Cabrera's stint on the DL last year was the first of his career. Excluding his rookie year, Cabrera has played 150+ games in all but one of 12 seasons.
Taking a lock like this as your second-round pick is an investment that will not let you down.
HEADLINES
- Scheifele records hat trick, 4-point game as Jets topple Leafs
- GM Brown: Astros moving on from Bregman after stalled negotiations
- Edwards docked $75K for ripping refs in 3rd fine of season
- Steelers' Pickens returns to practice, hopeful to play vs. Chiefs
- Pierce cherishes win: Raiders don't care 'for anybody's draft projections'