Fantasy Faceoff: Kyle Schwarber vs. Buster Posey

The catcher position is the hardest to roster in fantasy baseball. The position often produces just one or two stars per season, with the rest of the field ranging from "solid" to "abysmal". For the past few years, Buster Posey has stood atop the catcher pedestal. But in 2015, competition came in the form of Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber was a big reason why the Cubs stole so many hearts last year, and he did it with emphatic swings of the bat. With 16 home runs in 232 at-bats, Schwarber was an offensive force. Going into 2016, Schwarber's hype, power, and catcher eligibility have earned him a fantasy ADP around 40 - quite a feat for a player with only 69 games of MLB experience.

On the other hand, Posey has played 753 career games and is a three-time World Series champ. He has been the literal backstop for the Giants since 2010 and offers reliable production at a position with extreme scarcity. He may not be the most exciting player, but Posey has been the best catcher in the game since 2012 and still owns that title going into 2016.

With the narrative of consistency versus potential in place, who should fantasy players select: Schwarber or Posey?

The Case for Kyle Schwarber

The case for Schwarber is easy: power and potential. Schwarber's projections going forward indicate 30-90-90 potential. A ceiling of that nature is something no other catcher can offer and is exactly why everyone is so excited about Schwarber. Posey may have the career numbers, but he does not have the potential to match the 22-year-old Schwarber's upside.

While Schwarber only played 69 games last year, he definitely made the most of them. In that short span, Schwarber gave Posey competition for the title of best (fantasy) catcher despite playing significantly less. Below is a statistical comparison of 2015 for Posey and Schwarber:

In only 41.6% of Posey's at bats, Schwarber nearly matched Posey's home run total, scored only 22 fewer runs and registered 45% of Posey's RBIs. While it is impossible to predict what may happen in 2016, Steamer projections show a significant advantage to the young power hitter.

Aside from Posey's batting average, Schwarber projects to be the top catcher in fantasy baseball. However, there is the question of whether or not Schwarber sees a full season's worth of plate appearances - something that is not set in stone.

The Case for Buster Posey

For the fantasy players who enjoy a batting average of .300, a statistical floor of 15-65-75, and 20-80-90 upside, Posey is your man. A true model of consistency, Posey's statistical highs and lows (if you can call them that) from 2012 through to 2015 are shown below:

Considering catcher is one of the most physically taxing positions, it is a true testament to Posey's play that those numbers hardly waiver. Consistency may not be sexy, but it is something every high draft pick should offer and Posey has it locked down.

Another factor to consider is where Posey and Schwarber will bat in their respective lineups. The strength of the Chicago lineup helps Schwarber in terms of support, but it should force him down to fifth or sixth in the order. Batting lower in the order will take a small bite out of potential at-bats and overall production.

In San Francisco, Posey is locked into the third spot. This will maximize his at-bats and potential production. With a 2015 slash line of .318/.379/.470, Posey should continue to excel in this position. His bat is not loaded with power, but it has anchored the Giants' offense admirably the past four years.

Plate Appearances

In layman's terms: more plate appearances means more opportunity and production. While Schwarber only has 273 big-league plate appearances, Posey's totals from the last four years are: 623, 605, 595, 610.

Furthermore, Schwarber's position with the Cubs seems to be in a bit of flux entering 2016. While he has big-time power, Schwarber's defense is a concern. His defensive liabilities have already forced him to spend time in left field in order to cover for his suspect play behind home plate.

With no designated hitter in the National League, Schwarber may not be immune from reduced plate appearances. If his .143 average against lefties fails to improve, the Cubs will surely debate whether his power potential is worth the defensive sacrifice needed to have him in the lineup.

Another knock against the young Cub is his 28.2% strikeout rate. Schwarber cannot afford to be an automatic out nearly a third of the time and simultaneously offer below-average defense.

Ultimately, Schwarber still has to prove his worth beyond a 69-game sprint and should not be considered a lock for a Posey-like 600 plate appearances.

Verdict

Posey offers a guaranteed return on your early pick and shores up a position that can plague fantasy rosters all year. He is akin to Rob Gronkowski at tight end: far and away the best player available at his position any given day.

Schwarber is a close second and is by no means a foolish choice. But at the end of the day, Posey is still the best catcher in baseball and a fantasy lock.