Debate Team - Which Injured NBA Superstar Will Be Harder to Replace in Fantasy?
Each week, two of theScore's Fantasy experts weigh in on a contentious topic. This week: Which potentially season-ending injury will create a bigger hole in fantasy lineups, Marc Gasol or Chris Bosh?
Jason Wilson: While Bosh's status is not 100 per cent, it's looking like the Miami Heat and Bosh's fantasy owners are in need of a contingency plan. As big of a hole as that is to fill, Gasol's absence is going to cause fantasy players more headaches as they hit the home stretch.
Gasol's ADP was about 15 points higher than Bosh's. While that alone doesn't guarantee Gasol's numbers would be better, it does indicate that players were drafting him two rounds earlier in standard mixed leagues. Gasol's owners lost their second choice. Bosh owners should have at least two, if not three players to hang their hats on.
Prior to the game against Portland that ended Gasol's season, he had been putting up solid numbers. His early season injury troubles had passed and he was scoring double digits on a nightly basis and filling the stat sheet in every way. He was the most consistent big in the game and that's what owners were paying for. Those seasons will be difficult to salvage.
Esten McLaren: While Gasol may have been drafted higher than Bosh, it is the latter big man who has performed better this season. Prior to the injury, Bosh had slightly outperformed his ADP, while Gasol's overall fantasy performance was that of a player drafted a full round after where he went.
Here's how their standard fantasy stats compare:
PPG | RPG | APG | BPG | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Bosh | 19.1 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
Marc Gasol | 16.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
They split the most popular fantasy categories evenly, though Bosh averages fewer turnovers, while also contributing 1.5 3-pointers per game, compared to Gasol's total lack of contribution in that category.
At this point in the season fantasy owners are perfectly capable of finding blocks and steals on the waiver wire. It's much more difficult to replace Bosh's contributions in the points and rebounds categories - and especially his 3-point figures from the PF/C slot.
Jason Wilson: Maybe you could find a block specialist on waivers, or someone blocking a comparable number of shots to Gasol. Maybe you could snag steals or boards. But you are not going to find another player on waivers who can do at least a little in every single category of use in fantasy.
Among players who qualify at the center position, Gasol is second in assists per game. He is ninth in steals. He is 25th in blocks, 15th in points and top 40 in boards. Gasol is the total package and from December through January he was averaging more points, blocks and steals than his season averages. That is too tough a pill to swallow.
Bosh's 3-pointer acumen is a nice addition to his game but his 7.4 rebounds per game are mostly tied to the 9.3 rate he set in November. As the season progressed, Bosh became far more of a one-dimensional player. Even if Gasol's overall stats were dipping a bit in February, he was still offering multi-category value in ways Bosh wasn't.
Esten McLaren: The original question here was: "Which potentially season-ending injury will create a bigger hole in fantasy lineups?" This I think has a simple answer, as do the two NBA team's who also have to solve the problem. The Grizzlies have inserted PF/C JaMychal Green into Gasol's vacated starting spot, and fantasy owners should as well.
Green is averaging 8.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in three starts since Gasol was officially lost. While those numbers don't compare to Gasol's level of production, they do meet the requirements of a player who can contribute in every category.
Meanwhile, the Heat have had to change their entire starting lineup due to Bosh's departure. It's not even a consistent lineup on a night-to-night basis. They have turned to a small-ball lineup which typically sees SF Luol Deng start at the power forward position.
The Heat will use a committee approach to make up for Bosh's lost production. It's not that simple of an answer for his fantasy owners.
Jason Wilson: The problem with choosing Green as the replacement for Gasol in fantasy is his position eligibility. He isn't always going to be able to slot in at center. Considering Gasol is only available at center, picking up a power forward will not do the trick.
At first blush, Gasol's single-position eligibility is a knock against him and suggests Bosh's value to be greater because he slots in at both positions. But if you drafted Gasol, you probably figured you had your center position locked in. You need a sure thing and you need a big. Bosh is easier to replace because there's a larger talent pool to select from.
Any time you lose your second overall pick, you're in trouble. And while Jimmy Butler and Blake Griffin are on the shelf, neither will be out the rest of the year. Gasol hurts. Can you imagine some unlucky soul who somehow had both Gasol and Bosh? That player's season is likewise done.
Esten McLaren: You're right about center being a shallow talent pool in the fantasy world, but options do exist at this time of the year. Boston Celtics PF/C Amir Johnson and Indiana Pacers C Ian Mahinmi are available in over 50% of fantasy leagues, and both have turned in top-50 seasons for the position thus far.
In a shallower league? Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and Cleveland Cavaliers PF/C Tristan Thompson are owned in slightly more than 50% of leagues.
A younger player like Sacramento Kings C Willie Cauley-Stein is also widely available, and he's become more consistent and productive since being moved to a bench role. Neither Bosh nor Gasol can truly be replaced, but desperate owners will be able to patch together some level of production at fantasy's thinnest position.
While Gasol is a loss for whomever drafted him, there is not the much of a difference between a replacement-level center and some other centers currently owned - and routinely started - in the average league.