MLB Positional Fantasy Rankings: Outfield (Part 1)
Here are theScore's 2016 fantasy outfielder rankings (click here for Part 2 and here for Part 3; projections provided by Steamer (via Fangraphs) and theScore staff):
Positional Rankings
C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF1 | OF2 | OF3 | DH | SP1 | SP2 | SP3 | RP
1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 36 | 115 | 111 | 16 | .287 |
2015 | 41 | 104 | 90 | 11 | .299 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 39 | 105 | 110 | 13 | .301 |
Trout and Bryce Harper are probably going to be the two top bats selected in most drafts. Trout has the benefit of being the more consistent of the two, giving him a slight edge in ADP entering the season. And with Trout saying he'd like to steal more bases in 2016, his value may climb even higher.
2. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 13 | 41 | 32 | 2 | .273 |
2015 | 41 | 118 | 99 | 6 | .330 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 40 | 101 | 110 | 8 | .307 |
Harper was fantasy baseball's MVP in 2015, leading the majors in OBP (.460) and OPS (1.109) while establishing career highs in homers, RBIs and runs scored. He's running neck-and-neck with Trout for consideration as the top pick, and you wouldn't be crazy to go with Harper.
3. Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 37 | 89 | 105 | 13 | .288 |
2015 | 27 | 47 | 67 | 4 | .265 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 45 | 95 | 101 | 6 | .273 |
Stanton was on a tear last season before injuries cut his season short after just 74 games. Fantasy players will simply have to debate whether they want to spend their first round pick on Stanton and his long injury history. But keep in mind: a healthy Stanton should lead the majors in homers with ease.
4. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 35 | 101 | 103 | 6 | .286 |
2015 | 40 | 108 | 114 | 8 | .250 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 34 | 98 | 100 | 4 | .254 |
Bautista enters his age-35 season showing no signs of slowing down, coming off his third 40-homer season while leading the AL in walks (110). He'll see his share of good pitches in Toronto's loaded lineup, increasing his chances of maintaining his solid production. He's a second-round pick in mixed leagues.
▲5. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 7 | .291 |
2015 | 18 | 92 | 77 | 21 | .291 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 20 | 105 | 77 | 24 | .293 |
Betts showed five-tool ability in his first full season in the majors, and is primed for a breakout at age 23. He'll benefit significantly from Boston's improved lineup, and has the power and speed to reach 20-20 with ease. He's a solid second-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues.
6. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 25 | 89 | 83 | 18 | .314 |
2015 | 23 | 91 | 96 | 11 | .292 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 22 | 90 | 94 | 11 | .299 |
McCutchen is being drafted as a late-first/early-second-round pick in most mixed leagues. You could certainly do worse, though McCutchen lacks the fantasy upside of the players listed ahead of him. A decline in steals from 27 in 2013 to 11 last season suggests his thieving days are behind him.
▼7. J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 23 | 57 | 76 | 6 | .315 |
2015 | 38 | 93 | 102 | 3 | .282 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 33 | 92 | 104 | 4 | .283 |
Martinez is a virtual lock to hit 30+ home runs and should benefit on the RBI front from the addition of Justin Upton to the Tigers' lineup. The only knock against him: the strikeouts (178 last season). He's a solid OF1 if you decide to prioritize other positions in the first two rounds.
8. Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 19 | 82 | 72 | 28 | .288 |
2015 | 17 | 93 | 58 | 43 | .277 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 16 | 90 | 62 | 30 | .283 |
Blackmon contributed in all five categories last season, highlighted by a career-best steals total. His run total may take a hit in a hum-drum Colorado lineup, but he should be able to sustain his HR and RBI totals. Draft him in the third round in mixed leagues and hope for another 40-steal campaign.
9. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 13 | 73 | 56 | 30 | .291 |
2015 | 19 | 84 | 81 | 30 | .287 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 17 | 77 | 73 | 26 | .281 |
Marte took a significant step forward last season, increasing his HR total by six and his RBI tally by 25. Most importantly, the home-run jump didn't come at the expense of his solid batting average - or his speed. He's as good a bet as any to get to 20-20 this year, making him a great third-round pick.
10. Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 40 | 87 | 108 | 4 | .271 |
2015 | 44 | 90 | 93 | 3 | .302 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 37 | 88 | 99 | 2 | .266 |
Coming off back-to-back 40-homer campaigns, Cruz should reach 35+ despite turning 36 early this season. Owners shouldn't expect a .300 average again - prior to last year, Cruz hadn't hit above .271 in any of his previous four seasons - but he'll do enough with the bat to warrant a fourth-round selection.
11. Justin Upton, Detroit Tigers
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 26 | 77 | 102 | 8 | .270 |
2015 | 26 | 85 | 81 | 19 | .251 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 24 | 89 | 96 | 11 | .262 |
A move to Detroit should work wonders for Upton, who had a so-so season in San Diego. Hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez gives Upton major upside; if the uptick in steals is legitimate, Upton could be a 20-20-100-100 threat. He's a fourth-rounder in mixed leagues, but is worth a reach.
12. George Springer, Houston Astros
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 20 | 45 | 51 | 5 | .231 |
2015 | 16 | 59 | 31 | 16 | .276 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 24 | 88 | 80 | 18 | .262 |
A long-term injury derailed Springer's 2015 campaign, but he still managed 15+ home runs and steals while improving his batting average by 45 points. A 20-20 season is a virtual lock if he stays healthy, though his sky-high strikeout rate limits his upside. Draft him in the fourth round of mixed formats.
13. Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 22 | 89 | 100 | 7 | .260 |
2015 | 35 | 101 | 105 | 7 | .291 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 29 | 77 | 81 | 6 | .264 |
Cespedes did enough in his 57-game stint with the Mets (.287/.337/.604, 17 HR, 44 RBIs) to see his average draft position soar. But is an 18.1% HR-to-FB rate sustainable? Probably not. He's a decent OF2 in most formats, but expect negative regression across the board.
▲14. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 11 | 35 | 38 | 3 | .238 |
2015 | 40 | 87 | 97 | 2 | .271 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 29 | 77 | 88 | 3 | .279 |
A significant portion of Gonzalez's production - and fantasy appeal - comes from playing in Coors Field. That may end this season as CarGo enters 2016 as one of the most oft-mentioned players in trade rumors. Draft him as an OF2 in the fifth or sixth rounds, but beware a change of location.
15. Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
2015 | 16 | 52 | 43 | 3 | .246 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 25 | 66 | 81 | 5 | .251 |
Though Schwarber is primarily being drafted as a catcher, his OF eligibility makes him an intriguing prospect. He showed prolific power in 69 games as a rookie, but hitting lower in the order will limit the quality of pitches he sees. Schwarber is a high-risk, high-reward OF2 in most mixed leagues.
16. Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 29 | 88 | 96 | 7 | .281 |
2015 | 27 | 74 | 82 | 3 | .269 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 26 | 81 | 90 | 5 | .275 |
Injuries contributed heavily to a down year for Jones, and has resulted in him slipping down draft boards. The 30-year-old may not be a 30-HR, 100-RBI option anymore, but he's still productive in four fantasy categories and is surrounded by talent in Baltimore. Choose him confidently in the sixth round.
17. Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 11 | 74 | 58 | 20 | .271 |
2015 | 13 | 79 | 60 | 23 | .293 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 17 | 95 | 73 | 20 | .280 |
Heyward should see a nice boost in fantasy value with the move to the Cubs - particularly in the runs scored department, where he'll likely flirt with triple digits. Add in decent power numbers, 20+ steals and a great batting average, and Heyward is a low-risk OF2 in all mixed league formats.
▼18. A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 7 | 41 | 24 | 14 | .302 |
2015 | 20 | 111 | 76 | 39 | .315 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 13 | 77 | 60 | 21 | .293 |
Pollock sustained a devastating injury in spring training fracturing his right elbow. Considering Pollock will undergo surgery and has no official timetable for a return, fantasy owners need to be extremely careful here. Some speculation indicates that Pollock could miss half the season. Ultimately, it is best to pass on Pollock unless official word comes out before their draft, which at this point is extremely unlikely.
▼19. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 19 | 68 | 81 | 11 | .266 |
2015 | 25 | 87 | 84 | 24 | .285 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 22 | 79 | 82 | 16 | .282 |
Braun actually upped his production across the board despite 12 fewer plate appearances in 2015. His health is a big concern after he underwent back surgery in the off-season, and Braun was recently scratched in a spring game due to soreness. Ultimately, he is a top eight outfielder in NL-only leagues and will still go in the first six rounds of mixed leagues.
20. Carlos Gomez, Houston Astros
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 23 | 95 | 73 | 34 | .284 |
2015 | 12 | 61 | 56 | 17 | .255 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 15 | 68 | 65 | 20 | .264 |
Gomez's stats plummeted across the board in 2015; he was especially underwhelming during his late-season stint with the Astros. Some positive regression is expected, but the question is how much. His skill set makes him a decent OF2, but he should probably be drafted as a high-end OF3.
21. Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 5 | 55 | 53 | 28 | .301 |
2015 | 16 | 101 | 72 | 28 | .307 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 12 | 77 | 70 | 24 | .288 |
Cain was a revelation last season, significantly improving on his HR, RBI and run totals while batting north of .300 for the second year in a row. Owners shouldn't expect a similar bump this season, but as a three-category star who won't kill you in HR or RBI, he's a solid sixth-round pick.
22. Matt Kemp, San Diego Padres
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 25 | 77 | 89 | 8 | .287 |
2015 | 23 | 80 | 100 | 12 | .265 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 21 | 70 | 82 | 8 | .275 |
Kemp had a sensational 2015 campaign despite a drop in batting average, providing great value in four categories while playing at least 150 games for the second straight season. The lineup around him is worse than last season, but he's a serviceable OF3 in mixed leagues.
▲23. Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 16 | 92 | 69 | 11 | .296 |
2015 | 11 | 30 | 38 | 3 | .255 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 20 | 78 | 76 | 9 | .277 |
Puig is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy, possessing huge upside yet frustrating owners with regularity. New Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is a fan of Puig, which should lead to more opportunities - and better stats. That said, he still presents major risk and is an overdraft in the seventh round.
▼24. Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 20 | 106 | 74 | 13 | .277 |
2015 | 9 | 30 | 40 | 4 | .275 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 20 | 71 | 77 | 10 | .277 |
Pence should fall in drafts after playing 52 games last year - but owners should keep an eye on just how far he drops. Pence averaged 23.5 home runs and 86.5 RBIs over his previous two seasons, while hitting nearly .280 in that span. Target him in the seventh round of mixed formats.
▼25. Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates
SEASON | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 14 | .235 |
2015 | 9 | 83 | 51 | 27 | .256 |
2016 (PROJ.) | 13 | 80 | 62 | 26 | .258 |
Polanco's value is limited due to a lack of power and hitting prowess, but he should rack up plenty of runs and steals atop a potent Pittsburgh lineup. There's also room for improvement in other areas, making him a potential high-upside play that should go in the ninth-to-11th round of mixed drafts.