Should You Embrace or Avoid Injury Risk?

Injury risk is one of the most frustrating aspects of fantasy sports. Watching your star player and first-round pick go through an extended absence can ruin a fantasy season. Because of this, many fantasy players avoid drafting players with lengthy injury histories or those who are labeled "injury-prone."

But the beauty of injury risk is the value it can provide. Every year, superstars, veterans, and promising youngsters fall in the draft due to previous and/or lingering injuries. Luckily for fantasy owners, they can often obtain great value from the battered and bruised if they draft right.

The main problem fantasy owners struggle with is how to navigate injury risk on draft day. When should you roll the dice - and on whom?

Avoid Elite Players With Injury Risks

Every fantasy player weighs the pros and cons of drafting injury-prone players, but in the early rounds, owners need to be especially cautious. The potential handicap of losing your first- or second-round pick to injury can be season-altering.

From rounds 1-6, fantasy players should focus on drafting reliable and healthy players. Through these rounds, there are plenty of elite options available, and drafting injury-prone players at this juncture is simply an unwarranted risk.

Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton exemplifies this early-round risk. Last year, Stanton only played in 74 games after a fracture in his left hand forced him out of action in late June. Stanton has now missed a combined 190 games over the last four years - hardly the track record you want from a top pick.

Instead of Stanton, owners should focus on other players likely to be available - a list that includes Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen, and Jose Altuve. Each member of this trio should provide first-round production without the checkered injury history.

With plenty of top options available in the early portion of the draft, there is no reason fantasy owners should be risking their most sought-after picks on health hazards. It's far easier to replace the production of a 10th-to-12th-round selection via the waiver wire than it is a pick in the first three rounds.

With a Floor in Place, Be Aggressive

After the opening rounds have passed and you have built a reliable core group of players, it's time to target the discounted injury prone. While some fantasy players delay or write-off this group, their trepidation will allow you to find value in the mid-to-late rounds.

When drafting injury-prone players, fantasy owners need to be calculated but aggressive. Often, players with injury risk fall far enough where reaching for them a round or two ahead of their ADP still allows them to provide an immense return.

If an injured player often provides value closer to rounds 4-6 but is expected to fall to rounds 9-12 due to health concerns, fantasy owners should look to target him in rounds 7-10. Fantasy owners can be aggressive in these situations as the potential return still outweighs the risk of reaching a round or two early on such a player.

How to Draft Injury-Prone Players

Exhibit A: The injured superstar

Yu Darvish enters 2016 with an ADP around 130, having not pitched since August 2014. But considering the early-round value he can provide, Darvish would still be a steal if one were to reach for him between picks 100-110.

Unfortunately, part of Darvish's 2016 appeal is limited considering he is unlikely to pitch until late May. But with ace-like strikeout and ERA numbers, Darvish could still provide early-round value even if he only throws 130 innings.

If Darvish can return to form, he will provide a 10-plus SO/9 and a respectable ERA in his reduced innings. Considering his ADP sits at the halfway point of most drafts, fantasy owners should be willing to reach for him a round or two ahead of their competitors.

Exhibit B: The injured veteran

Fantasy players can also shore up positions via discounted injury risk players. With many fantasy owners fearing the correlation of injury and age, reliable veterans can be easier find in the later portions of any draft.

Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia fits this mold entering 2016. At 32 and having missed 69 games in 2015 with hamstring issues, Pedroia's ADP sits at a lowly 170.

Considering Pedroia steadily contributes runs, RBIs and batting average, using a pick between the 140-150 mark is a small risk to take given his proven track record.

Exhibit C: Late-Round Upside

The closing rounds are where fantasy players can be creative and go off-the-board. With core players to build around, fantasy players should look for high upside players coming at big injury discounts.

Toronto 2B Devon Travis is a prime example of a late-round flier. Expected to return in May from a shoulder injury, Travis can be drafted in the closing rounds and stashed as a backup second baseman.

What's so intriguing about Travis is the upside he showed in 62 games with the Blue Jays last year. In that short stint, Travis slashed .304/.361/.490, hit eight homers, scored 38 runs, and produced 35 RBIs. If his recovery goes smoothly, Travis could bring this potential to the leadoff spot of an already dangerous lineup, making him a fantastic late-round pick.

Shedding the Injury-Prone Label

Admittedly, the term "injury-prone" is feared in both fantasy and actual sports for good reason. But considering the physical demand these players face, no player is truly free from injury concern.

Though that label tends to stick, players can occasionally work themselves back to health and see their production return.

Padres outfielder Matt Kemp is one recent example that comes to mind. After only playing a combined 179 games in 2012 and 2013 due to numerous health issues, Kemp was widely regarded as "injury-prone", a tag which still lingers for some baseball fans.

But with 2012 and 2013 in the rear-view mirror, Kemp returned to play 150 and 154 games in 2014 and 2015, respectively. And his play has hardly missed a beat, with Kemp producing over 20 homers and 85 RBIs in both seasons. The mid-round pick spent on Kemp in each of the past two fantasy seasons has been a slam dunk for those who gambled on the former Dodger.

While a player may be quick to earn the "injury-prone" tag, fantasy owners should be careful to take it at face value. And as always, do some preliminary research on potential draft picks.